Tag Archives: Christmas Island

Tropical Cyclone Teratai Passes South of Christmas Island

Tropical Cyclone Teratai passed south of Christmas Island on Wednesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Teratai was located at latitude 14.2°S and longitude 104.4°E which put it about 255 miles (410 km) south-southwest of Christmas Island. Teratai was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai weakened slowly as it passed over the South Indian Ocean south of Christmas Island on Wednesday. Thunderstorms were occurring in a couple of bands in the western half of Teratai’s circulation. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Teratai.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move through an environment that will be mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Teratai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C during the next 24 hours. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge centered northwest of Australia. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Teratai’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Teratai could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours, but it will move over cooler water later this week. When Teratai moves over cooler water, the reduction in available energy and the vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Teratai to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Teratai toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move farther away from Christmas Island.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai Redevelops South of Indonesia

Tropical Cyclone Teratai redeveloped south of Indonesia on Tuesday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Teratai was located at latitude 12.0°S and longitude 106.4°E which put it about 380 miles (615 km) south of Jakarta, Indonesia and about 115 miles (185 km) south-southeast of Christmas Island. Teratai was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

After strong upper level winds blew the top off of former Tropical Cyclone Teratai late last week, the circulation in the lower levels made an extended clockwise loop southwest of Indonesia. More thunderstorms formed west of the low level center of circulation on Monday and the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Teratai strengthened during the past 24 hours. Data from scatterometers on satellites indicated that the wind speeds increased back to tropical storm force on Tuesday. The distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Teratai’s circulation. Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Teratai consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Teratai was a small tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move through an environment that will be mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Teratai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26.5˚C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge centered northwest of Australia. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Teratai’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear is already causing an asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms and the shear will continue to inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Teratai could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours, but if the wind shear increases Teratai is likely to weaken again.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Teratai toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move south of Christmas Island during the next several days.

Tropical Cyclone Paddy Weakens South of Christmas Island

Tropical Cyclone Paddy weakened over the South Indian Ocean south of Christmas Island on Wednesday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Paddy was located at latitude 14.5°S and longitude 105.5°E which put it about 270 miles (440 km) south of Christmas Island. Paddy was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean west of Australia was producing strong northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Paddy’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear and the upper level winds were blowing the tops off of many of the thunderstorms around Paddy’s circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the southeastern side of Tropical Cyclone Paddy. Bands in the other parts of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The strong vertical wind shear was causing Paddy to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Paddy will move through an environment unfavorable for a tropical cyclone during the next several days. Paddy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. However, the upper level trough west of Australia will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will blow the tops off of any new thunderstorms that develop. The winds around Tropical Cyclone Paddy will decrease gradually during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Paddy will move south of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Paddy toward the west during the next several days as the tropical cyclone weakens gradually. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Paddy will remain well to the south of Christmas Island.

Tropical Cyclone Paddy Develops Southeast of Christmas Island

Tropical Cyclone Paddy developed over the South Indian Ocean southeast of Christmas Island on Monday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Paddy was located at latitude 13.8°S and longitude 108.0°E which put it about 275 miles (440 km) southeast of Christmas, Island. Paddy was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean south of Java strengthened on Monday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Paddy. The strongest thunderstorms in Paddy’s circulation were occurring in bands that were southeast and northwest of the center of circulation. Bands in the northeastern and southwestern parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Paddy.

Tropical Cyclone Paddy will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Paddy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Paddy could get a little stronger during the next 12 hours. Paddy will move under an area where there are strong northwesterly winds in the upper levels on Tuesday. Those winds will create strong vertical wind shear and the shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Paddy to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Paddy will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Paddy toward the southwest during the next 12 to 24 hours. When Tropical Cyclone Paddy starts to weaken on Tuesday, it will be steered by winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Those winds will steer Paddy toward the west during the middle of this week. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Paddy will remain well to the south of Christmas Island.

Tropical Cyclone Dahlia Forms Southwest of Indonesia

Tropical Cyclone Dahlia formed southwest of Indonesia on Wednesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dahlia was located at latitude 8.4°S and longitude 101.5°E which put it about 320 miles (520 km) west-northwest of Christmas Island.  Dahlia was moving toward the east at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A center of circulation developed in a cluster of thunderstorms previously designated as Invest 96S and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology named the system Tropical Cyclone Dahlia.  The circulation of Dahlia is still organizing.  A primary rainband wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms formed in the western half of the circulation.  Fewer thunderstorms formed in the eastern half of Dahlia.  The thunderstorms near and to the west of the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Dahlia will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Dahlia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  Dahlia is underneath the northern part of an upper level ridge.  The ridge is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear, which may be the reason why most of the thunderstorms are west of the center of circulation.  The shear is strong enough to slow the intensification of Dahlia, but it is not strong enough to prevent the tropical cyclone from strengthening.  Tropical Cyclone Dahlia is likely to likely to intensify during the next 24 to 48 hours.

The steering winds around Dahlia are relatively weak and the tropical cyclone is moving slowly toward the east.  The upper level ridge is forecast to shift north and stronger westerly winds are likely to steer Tropical Cyclone Dahlia toward the east at a faster speed.  When Dahlia reaches the southern portion of the upper level ridge in a couple of days, northerly winds diverging from the ridge are likely to steer the tropical cyclone toward the south.