Tag Archives: Christmas Island

Tropical Cyclone Paddy Weakens South of Christmas Island

Tropical Cyclone Paddy weakened over the South Indian Ocean south of Christmas Island on Wednesday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Paddy was located at latitude 14.5°S and longitude 105.5°E which put it about 270 miles (440 km) south of Christmas Island. Paddy was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean west of Australia was producing strong northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Paddy’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear and the upper level winds were blowing the tops off of many of the thunderstorms around Paddy’s circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the southeastern side of Tropical Cyclone Paddy. Bands in the other parts of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The strong vertical wind shear was causing Paddy to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Paddy will move through an environment unfavorable for a tropical cyclone during the next several days. Paddy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. However, the upper level trough west of Australia will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will blow the tops off of any new thunderstorms that develop. The winds around Tropical Cyclone Paddy will decrease gradually during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Paddy will move south of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Paddy toward the west during the next several days as the tropical cyclone weakens gradually. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Paddy will remain well to the south of Christmas Island.

Tropical Cyclone Paddy Develops Southeast of Christmas Island

Tropical Cyclone Paddy developed over the South Indian Ocean southeast of Christmas Island on Monday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Paddy was located at latitude 13.8°S and longitude 108.0°E which put it about 275 miles (440 km) southeast of Christmas, Island. Paddy was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean south of Java strengthened on Monday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Paddy. The strongest thunderstorms in Paddy’s circulation were occurring in bands that were southeast and northwest of the center of circulation. Bands in the northeastern and southwestern parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Paddy.

Tropical Cyclone Paddy will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Paddy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Paddy could get a little stronger during the next 12 hours. Paddy will move under an area where there are strong northwesterly winds in the upper levels on Tuesday. Those winds will create strong vertical wind shear and the shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Paddy to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Paddy will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Paddy toward the southwest during the next 12 to 24 hours. When Tropical Cyclone Paddy starts to weaken on Tuesday, it will be steered by winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Those winds will steer Paddy toward the west during the middle of this week. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Paddy will remain well to the south of Christmas Island.

Tropical Cyclone Dahlia Forms Southwest of Indonesia

Tropical Cyclone Dahlia formed southwest of Indonesia on Wednesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dahlia was located at latitude 8.4°S and longitude 101.5°E which put it about 320 miles (520 km) west-northwest of Christmas Island.  Dahlia was moving toward the east at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A center of circulation developed in a cluster of thunderstorms previously designated as Invest 96S and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology named the system Tropical Cyclone Dahlia.  The circulation of Dahlia is still organizing.  A primary rainband wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms formed in the western half of the circulation.  Fewer thunderstorms formed in the eastern half of Dahlia.  The thunderstorms near and to the west of the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Dahlia will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Dahlia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  Dahlia is underneath the northern part of an upper level ridge.  The ridge is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear, which may be the reason why most of the thunderstorms are west of the center of circulation.  The shear is strong enough to slow the intensification of Dahlia, but it is not strong enough to prevent the tropical cyclone from strengthening.  Tropical Cyclone Dahlia is likely to likely to intensify during the next 24 to 48 hours.

The steering winds around Dahlia are relatively weak and the tropical cyclone is moving slowly toward the east.  The upper level ridge is forecast to shift north and stronger westerly winds are likely to steer Tropical Cyclone Dahlia toward the east at a faster speed.  When Dahlia reaches the southern portion of the upper level ridge in a couple of days, northerly winds diverging from the ridge are likely to steer the tropical cyclone toward the south.