Monthly Archives: December 2023

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro Forms over the Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro formed over the Mozambique Channel on Sunday morning. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro was located at latitude 20.5°S and longitude 39.1°E which put it about 380 miles (610 km) west-northwest of Toliara, Madagascar. Alvaro was moving toward the east-southeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the Mozambique Channel intensified on Sunday morning and Meteo France la Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Alvaro. More thunderstorms formed around the center of Alvaro’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Thunderstorms were also forming in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro. Bands in the western side of Alvaro’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the eastern half of Alvaro. The winds in the western side of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Alvaro will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel. The upper level ridge will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Alvaro’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will intensify during the next 24 hours.

The upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel will steer Tropical Cyclone Alvaro toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Alvaro will approach the coast of southwest Madagascar near Morombe on Monday. Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Jelawat Brings Wind and Rain to Mindanao

Former Tropical Storm Jelawat brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Mindanao on Sunday night. Jelawat weakened to a tropical depression after the center moved over Mindanao. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Jelawat was located at latitude 7.2°N and longitude 126.0°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) east of Davao City, Philippines. Jelawat was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

The center of former Tropical Storm Jelawat made landfall on the coast of Mindanao between Baganga and Manay on Sunday evening. The maximum sustained wind speed in Jelawat was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). Bands of showers and thunderstorms in the western side of Jelawat’s circulation were dropping heavy rain over parts of Mindanao, Former Tropical Storm Jelawat weakened to a tropical depression when the center of circulation moved over mountains in eastern Mindanao.

Tropical Depression Jelawat will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean and East Asia. The high pressure system will steer Jelawat toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Depression Jelawat will move across Mindanao. Jelawat will continue to drop heavy rain over Mindanao. Heavy rain will likely cause flash floods in some location. Tropical Depression Jelawat will also cause gusty winds in the Davao Gulf, the Moro Gulf and the Bohol Sea.

Tropical Storm Jelawat Develops East of Mindanao

Tropical Storm Jelawat developed east of Mindanao on Saturday night. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Jelawat was located at latitude 7.5°N and longitude 129.2°E which put it about 180 miles (290 km) east of Baganga, Philippines. Jelawat was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A tropical depression that formed on Saturday morning strengthened, and the Japan Meteorological Agency upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Jelawat. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western and northern sides of Tropical Storm Jelawat. Bands in the eastern and southern parts of the Jelawat’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Jelawat was interacting with a large high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean and East Asia. The pressure gradient between the high pressure system and Jelawat’s circulation was producing a large area of tropical storm force winds in the western side of Jelawat. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) in the western side of Jelawat. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (280 km) in the eastern side of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Jelawat will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Jelawat will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jelawat’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Jelawat could intensify a little more, if the upper level winds do not get any stronger. When the upper level winds get stronger, then Jelawat will weaken.

Tropical Storm Jelawat will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean and East Asia. The high pressure system will steer Jelawat toward the west. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Jelawat will reach Mindanao in 18 hours. Jelawat will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Mindanao. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Depression Forms East of the Philippines

A tropical depression formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines on Saturday morning. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of a tropical depression was located at latitude 7.4°N and longitude 131.5°E which put it about 335 miles (540 km) east of Baganga, Philippines. The tropical depression was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of a low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of Mindanao on Saturday morning and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as a tropical depression. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western and northern sides of the tropical depression. Bands in the eastern and southern parts of the depression’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical depression.

The tropical depression will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the depression’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to stop intensification. The tropical depression could strengthen to a tropical storm, if the upper level winds do not get any stronger.

The tropical depression will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean and East Asia. The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the west. On its anticipated track the tropical depression will reach Mindanao in less than 24 hours. The tropical depression will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Mindanao. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper Brings Wind and Rain to Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Jasper brought wind and rain to Queensland on Wednesday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 144.7°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) northwest of Cairns, Australia. Jasper was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper made landfall on the North Coast of Queensland near Cape Tribulation early on Wednesday. Jasper was the equivalent of a strong tropical storm at landfall. The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h). Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper at the time of landfall.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper made landfall between Cairns and Cooktown. The strongest winds occurred between Cairns and Cooktown. A weather station in Cooktown reported a sustained wind speed of 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h) and a wind gust of 43 m.p.h. (69 km/h). The weather station also measured 1.91 inches (48.5 mm) of rain. A weather station in Cairns reported a sustained wind speed of 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h) and a wind gust of 35 m.p.h. (57 km/h). The weather station in Cairns measured 4.18 inches (105.2 mm) of rain and it was still raining.

Bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Jasper were dropping heavy rain over parts of northern Queensland. A Major Flood Warning was in effect for the Daintree River. A Flood Warning was in effect for the Mossman River. A Moderate Flood Warning was in effect for the Mulgrave River. A Flood Warning was in effect for the Russell River. A Flood Warning was in effect for the Murray River. A Minor Flood Warning was in effect for the Tully River. An Initial Minor Flood Warning was in effect for the Barron River.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move west across northern Queensland during the next 36 hours. Jasper will weaken gradually as it moves over land. Tropical Cyclone Jasper will produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain across parts of northern Queensland. Heavy rain could cause additional flooding in some locations. Jasper could move over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper Nears Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Jasper neared the coast of Queensland on Tuesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 146.1°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) north-northeast of Cairns, Australia. Jasper was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Melville to Cardwell, Australia. The Tropical Cyclone Warning included Cairns, Cooktown, Innisfail, Chillagoe and Palmerville.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was approaching the coast of Queensland near Cape Tribulation on Tuesday night. Jasper was the equivalent of a strong tropical storm as it neared the coast. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Jasper’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours until the center reaches the coast of Queensland. Jasper will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could intensify a little before it makes landfall. There is a slight chance that Jasper could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over eastern Australia and the Coral Sea. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper will reach the coast of Queensland between Cairns and Cooktown in a few hours. The center of Jasper is likely to reach the coast near Cape Tribulation. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of Queensland between Cairns and Cooktown. The strongest winds will occur between Cairns and Cooktown. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. A Flood Watch is in effect for the North Tropical Coast, parts of the Cape York Peninsula and Gulf Country. Heavy rain will spread inland over the Cape York Peninsula as Jasper moves farther to the west. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper Strengthens Again

Tropical Cyclone Jasper strengthened again on Monday as it approached the coast of Queensland. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 147.6°E which put it about 145 miles (235 km) east-northeast of Cairns, Australia. Jasper was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Flattery to Lucinda, Australia. The Tropical Cyclone Warning included Cairns, Cooktown, Innisfail and Chillagoe. A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Melville to Cape Flattery, Australia. The Tropical Cyclone Watch included Palmerville.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper strengthened again on Monday. New thunderstorms developed in bands revolving around the center of Jasper’s circulation. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of the center of circulation. Storms near the center of Jasper generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jasper will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, Jasper will still be in a region of drier air. The drier air will inhibit the formation of new thunderstorms. Tropical Cyclone Jasper is likely to intensify in spite of the drier air during the next 24 hours. Jasper could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over eastern Australia and the Coral Sea. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper will reach the coast of Queensland between Cairns and Cooktown in 24 hours. Jasper could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of Queensland between Cairns and Cooktown. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. A Flood Watch is in effect for the North Tropical Coast, parts of the Cape York Peninsula and Gulf Country. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper Prompts Warning for Queensland

A potential risk posed by Tropical Cyclone Jasper prompted the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to issue a Tropical Cyclone Warning for a portion of the coast of Queensland on Sunday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 149.8°E which put it about 300 miles (480 km) east-southeast of Cairns, Australia. Jasper was moving toward the west-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cooktown to Townsville, Australia. The Tropical Cyclone Warning included Cairns, Innisfail and Palm Island. A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Melville to Cooktown, Australia. The Tropical Cyclone Watch included Palmerville and Chillagoe.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper weakened on Sunday as it continued to move closer to Queensland. Jasper moved into a region of sinking, drier air. The drier air mixed with the rainbands revolving around the center of Jasper’s circulation. The drier air reduced the relative humidity and most of the thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Jasper dissipated. Bands revolving around the center of circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Cyclone Jasper still had a large, symmetrical circulation in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 220 miles (350 km) from the center of Jasper’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jasper will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, Jasper will still be in the region of drier air. The drier air will continue to inhibit the formation of thunderstorms. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could intensify a little during the next 24 hours, if new thunderstorms develop near the center of circulation. On the other hand, if no new thunderstorms develop, then Jasper could weaken a little more.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the Coral Sea and Eastern Australia. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper will reach the coast of Queensland between Cairns and Cooktown in 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper Moves Toward Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Jasper moved toward Queensland on Saturday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 153.9°E which put it about 560 miles (900 km) east of Cairns, Australia. Jasper was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper weakened to the equivalent of a tropical storm on Saturday. An upper level trough near the coast of northeastern Australia produced northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Jasper’s circulation. Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear disrupted the upper level divergence of mass to the west of Tropical Cyclone Jasper. The wind shear also caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Jasper to become asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern part of Tropical Cyclone Jasper. Bands in the northern side of Jasper’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The changes in the circulation of Tropical Cyclone Jasper also caused the wind field to become more asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) in the southern half of Jasper’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (200 km) in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Jasper.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jasper will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level trough near the coast of northeastern Australia will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The moderate vertical wind shear could cause Tropical Cyclone Jasper to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean east of Australia. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jasper will approach the north coast of Queensland in three days.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper Turns Toward Australia

Tropical Cyclone Jasper turned toward Australia on Friday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 156.3°E which put it about 710 miles (1145 km) east of Cairns, Australia. Jasper was moving toward the south-southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper started to weaken on Friday. An upper level trough over the western part of the Coral Sea produced southwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Jasper’s circulation. Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear inhibited the upper level divergence toward the western side of Tropical Cyclone Jasper. The reduced upper level divergence caused the surface pressure to increase. The vertical wind shear also disrupted the inner core of Jasper’s circulation. The eyewall collapsed and an eye was no longer visible on satellite images.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper still had a large circulation despite weakening on Friday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Jasper’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Jasper was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 40.5. Tropical Cyclone Jasper was similar in intensity to Hurricane Gustave when Gustav hit Louisiana in 2008. Jasper was not quite as big as Gustav was.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jasper will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level trough over the western part of the Coral Sea will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The moderate vertical wind shear is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Jasper to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean east of Australia. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the west during the latter part of the weekend and the beginning of next week. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jasper will approach the north coast of Queensland early next week.