Tropical Cyclone Alvaro formed over the Mozambique Channel on Sunday morning. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro was located at latitude 20.5°S and longitude 39.1°E which put it about 380 miles (610 km) west-northwest of Toliara, Madagascar. Alvaro was moving toward the east-southeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the Mozambique Channel intensified on Sunday morning and Meteo France la Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Alvaro. More thunderstorms formed around the center of Alvaro’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Thunderstorms were also forming in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro. Bands in the western side of Alvaro’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the eastern half of Alvaro. The winds in the western side of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Alvaro will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel. The upper level ridge will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Alvaro’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will intensify during the next 24 hours.

The upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel will steer Tropical Cyclone Alvaro toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Alvaro will approach the coast of southwest Madagascar near Morombe on Monday. Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.