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Tropical Cyclone Courtney Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

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Tropical Cyclone Courtney was the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the South Indian Ocean on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Courtney was located at latitude 19.9°S and longitude 89.1°E which put the center about 715 miles (1150 km) southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Courtney was moving toward the southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 939 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Courtney strengthened on Saturday.  Courtney was the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  A small circular eye was present at the center of Courtney’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Courtney’s circulation.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Courtney was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Courtney’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Courtney.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Courtney was 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 40.6.

Tropical Cyclone Courtney will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Courtney will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Courtney’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Cyclone Courtney will weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Courtney will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Courtney toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Courtney will move farther away from the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Dianne Brings Wind and Rain to Western Australia

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Tropical Cyclone Dianne brought wind and rain to Western Australia on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dianne was located at latitude 16.6°S and longitude 123.8°E which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) north-northeast of the Derby, Australia.  Dianne was moving toward the south at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast between Kuri Bay and Derby.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Dianne made landfall on the coast of Western Australia north-northeast of Derby.  Dianne was the equivalent of a tropical storm at the time of landfall.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dianne was small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Dianne’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Dianne will move around the western end of a high pressure system over northern Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Dianne toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dianne will move inland over Western Australia during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dianne will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Western Australia.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for the Tanami Desert, the Western Desert and the Sandy Desert.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Courtney intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane southwest of the Cocos Islands.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Courtney was located at latitude 17.6°S and longitude 92.5°E which put the center about 445 miles (715 km) southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Courtney was moving toward the west-southwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dianne Nears Western Australia

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Tropical Cyclone Dianne neared the coast of Western Australia on Friday morning.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dianne was located at latitude 15.3°S and longitude 123.6°E which put the center about 140 miles (225 km) north of the Derby, Australia.  Dianne was moving toward the south-southeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A Warning is in effect for the area between Kuri Bay and Derby.

A Tropical Low strengthened to Tropical Cyclone Dianne near the coast of Western Australia during Thursday night.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Dianne.  More thunderstorms also formed in bands revolving around the center of Dianne’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Dianne generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dianne was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Dianne’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Dianne will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Dianne will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that extends from over Australia to the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the Tropical Low.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Dianne could intensify during the next few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dianne will move around the western end of a high pressure system over northern Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Dianne toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dianne will make landfall on the coast of Western Australia northeast of Derby in a few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dianne will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Western Australia.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for the Tanami Desert, the Western Desert and the Sandy Desert.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Courtney passed south of the Cocos Islands.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Courtney was located at latitude 16.9°S and longitude 94.9°E which put the center about 330 miles (530 km) south-southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Courtney was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Tropical Low Prompts Watch for Western Australia

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A risk posed by a Tropical Low prompted the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to issue a Watch for a portion of the coast of Western Australia on Thursday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 13.8°S and longitude 121.8°E which put the center about 215 miles (350 km) west-northwest of the Kuri Bay, Australia.  The Tropical Low was moving toward the east-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (7 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Mitchell Plateau to Beagle Bay.  The Watch includes Derby and Beagle Bay.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean west of Australia exhibited more organization on Thursday morning and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology classified the system as a Tropical Low.  The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center designated the low pressure system as Invest 93S.

The distribution of thunderstorms in the Tropical Low was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of the Tropical Low.  Bands in the eastern side of the Tropical Low consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the Tropical Low.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The Tropical Low will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that extends from over Australia to the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the Tropical Low.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  The Tropical Low could intensify during the next 24 hours.

The Tropical Low will move around the western end of a high pressure system over northern Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the Tropical Low will make landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Kuri Bay and Derby in 36 hours.

The Tropical Low will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Western Australia.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Courtney continued to strengthen south-southeast of the Cocos Islands.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Courtney was located at latitude 16.8°S and longitude 99.5°E which put the center about 380 miles (610 km) south-southeast of the Cocos Islands.  Courtney was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Courtney Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

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Tropical Cyclone Courtney strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean southeast of the Cocos Islands on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Courtney was located at latitude 17.3°S and longitude 101.7°E which put the center about 505 miles (815 km) southeast of the Cocos Islands.  Courtney was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Courtney strengthened steadily on Wednesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Courtney’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Courtney.  Storms near the center of Courtney generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Courtney increased on Wednesday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Courtney’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Courtney.

Tropical Cyclone Courtney will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Courtney will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that is west of Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Courtney’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Courtney is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Courtney will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Courtney toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Courtney will pass south of the Cocos Islands later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Courtney Develops Northwest of Australia

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Tropical Cyclone Courtney developed over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Courtney was located at latitude 17.4°S and longitude 106.3°E which put the center about 585 miles (945 km) northwest of Exmouth, Australia.  Courtney was moving toward the west-southwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia strengthened on Tuesday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Courtney.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Courtney’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Courtney.  Storms near the center of Courtney generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Courtney was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of Courtney’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Courtney will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Courtney will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that is west of Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Courtney’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Courtney is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Courtney will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Courtney toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Courtney will pass far to the south of Christmas Islands.  Courtney will pass south of the Cocos Islands later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Jude Moves Away from Southern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Jude moved away from southern Madagascar on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 25.6°S and longitude 48.8°E which put the center about 125 miles (200 km) east-southeast of Tolanaro, Madagascar.  Jude was moving toward the east-southeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude was moving away from southern Madagascar on Saturday.  There was some evidence from satellite images that Jude was beginning to experience more vertical wind shear.  The higher clouds were being carried away to the southeast.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude was still well organized.  Thunderstorms were still occurring near the center of Jude’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were still revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.

The wind shear appeared to be affecting the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Jude.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) in the southern side of Jude’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Jude.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Jude will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is southwest of Madagascar.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jude’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Jude to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough southwest of Madagascar will steer Tropical Cyclone Jude toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jude will move farther away from southern Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Jude Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Jude brought wind and rain to southern Madagascar on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 24.7°S and longitude 43.8°E which put the center about 85 miles (135 km) northwest of Beloha, Madagascar.  Jude was moving toward the southeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude continued to strengthen gradually until it reached southern Madagascar.  Jude was the equivalent of a strong tropical storm when the center made landfall on the coast of southwestern Madagascar.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (240 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Jude toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude will move across southern Madagascar during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Jude could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) on the west coast of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Jude Nears Southern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Jude was nearing southern Madagascar on Friday morning.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 23.3°S and longitude 42.1°E which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) west of Toliara, Madagascar.  Jude was moving toward the east-southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude was intensifying gradually as it neared the coast of southern Madagascar on Friday morning.  Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Jude’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.  Storms near the center of Jude’s circulation pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude remained relatively the same.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Jude’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Jude will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean near Madagascar.  The upper level ridge will produce west-northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jude’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Jude could intensify a little more during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean . The high pressure system will steer Jude toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude will reach the coast of southern Madagascar just to the south of Toliara in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will be the equivalent of a tropical storm when it reaches the southern coast of Madagascar.  Jude will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Jude could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) on the west coast of Madagascar.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ivone made a transition to an extratropical cyclone south-southeast of Rodrigues.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ivone was located at latitude 25.1°S and longitude 65.6°E which put the center about 395 miles (640 km) south-southeast of Rodrigues.  Ivone was moving toward the west-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude Moves Back over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Jude moved back over the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 19.9°S and longitude 37.8°E which put the center about 450 miles (725 km) west-northwest of Toliara, Madagascar.  Jude was moving toward the southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (60 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude began to intensify after the center of its circulation moved back over the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday night.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Jude’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in the bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.  Storms near the center of Jude generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Jude will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.   It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Jude will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Jude toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jude will move toward southern Madagascar.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jude could reach the southern coast of Madagascar near Toliara in 36 hours.  Jude will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Jude could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) on the west coast of Madagascar.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ivone wes weakening east-southeast of Rodrigues.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ivone was located at latitude 22.5°S and longitude 68.0°E which put the center about 360 miles (580 km) east-southeast of Rodrigues.  Ivone was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.