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Tropical Cyclone Hayley brought wind and rain to Western Australia on Tuesday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hayley was located at latitude 16.7°S and longitude 123.7°E which put the center about 50 miles (80 km) north-northwest of Derby, Australia. Hayley was moving toward the east at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the region from north of Beagle Bay to south of Kuri Bay, Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley made landfall on the coast of Western Australia south of Lombadina on Tuesday morning. Hayley moved across the northern part of the Dampier Peninsula. Tropical Cyclone Haley was currently over King Sound.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Hayley was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Hayley’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Hayley.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Hayley was 12.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 20.6.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley will move around the northeastern part of an upper level trough over Western Australia. The upper level trough will steer Hayley toward the east during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Hayley will make another landfall in Western Australia north of Derby in a few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley will bring strong winds and locally heavy to parts of Western Australia north and east of Derby. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations,

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has issued a Severe Weather Warning for heavy rainfall for parts of the Kimberley District.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Grant was moving south-southeast of Diego Garcia. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 14.8°S and longitude 75.1°E which put the center about 565 miles (910 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Grant was moving toward the west-southwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Hayley rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon northwest of Australia early on Monday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hayley was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 120.3°E which put the center about 210 miles (340 km) northwest of Broome, Australia. Hayley was moving toward the southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the portion of the coast from north of Broome to Cockatoo Island. The Warning included the Dampier Peninsula and Derby.

The Australia Bureau of Meteorology issued a Watch for the region from east of Derby to Kuri Bay.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon early on Monday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Hayley’s circulation. A small eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Hayley. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hayley’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Hayley was very small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Hayley’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Hayley.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Hayley was 12.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 19.8.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Hayley will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the middle of a small upper level ridge that is northwest of Australia. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Hayley is likely to continue to intensify during the next 12 hours. Hayley could intensify rapidly because its circulation is so small. Tropical Cyclone Hayley will move under the northeastern part of an upper level trough that is near the west coast of Australia in about 12 hours. The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Hayley’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Tropical Cyclone Hayley will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Hayley toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Hayley will make landfall in the northern part of the Dampier Peninsula between Beagle Bay and Cape Leveque in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley is likely to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at the time of landfall. Hayley will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Dampier Peninsula and parts of Western Australia. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Hayley could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along portions of the coast near where the center makes landfall.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Grant intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale southeast of Diego Garcia. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 13.8°S and longitude 80.0°E which put the center about 710 miles (1145 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Grant was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

The Hurricane Intensity Index for Tropical Cyclone Grant was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.7. Tropical Cyclone Grant was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Charley when Charley hit Southwest Florida in 2004.

Tropical Low Prompts Watch for Western Australia

A risk posed by a Tropical Low prompted the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to issue a Watch for a portion of the coast of Western Australia on Thursday. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 13.8°S and longitude 121.8°E which put the center about 215 miles (350 km) west-northwest of the Kuri Bay, Australia. The Tropical Low was moving toward the east-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (7 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Mitchell Plateau to Beagle Bay. The Watch includes Derby and Beagle Bay.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean west of Australia exhibited more organization on Thursday morning and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology classified the system as a Tropical Low. The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center designated the low pressure system as Invest 93S.

The distribution of thunderstorms in the Tropical Low was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of the Tropical Low. Bands in the eastern side of the Tropical Low consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the Tropical Low. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The Tropical Low will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that extends from over Australia to the South Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the Tropical Low. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification. The Tropical Low could intensify during the next 24 hours.

The Tropical Low will move around the western end of a high pressure system over northern Australia. The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the Tropical Low will make landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Kuri Bay and Derby in 36 hours.

The Tropical Low will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Western Australia. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Courtney continued to strengthen south-southeast of the Cocos Islands. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Courtney was located at latitude 16.8°S and longitude 99.5°E which put the center about 380 miles (610 km) south-southeast of the Cocos Islands. Courtney was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Tuesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was located at latitude 15.9°S and longitude 120.3°E which put it about 190 miles (305 km) northwest of Broome, Australia. Ilsa was moving toward the southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Beagle Bay to Whim Creek. The Tropical Cyclone Watch included Broome and Port Hedland.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa intensified rapidly over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Tuesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Ilsa’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated strong upper level divergence that pumped a large quantity of mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of a large quantity of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly, which contributed to the rapid increase in wind speed.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Ilsa’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ilsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that extends from northern Australia to the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa is likely to continue to intensify rapidly during the next 24 hours. Ilsa could intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane within 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over western Australia. The high pressure system will steer Ilsa toward the southwest during the next 18 hours. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will move toward the south when it reaches the western end of the ridge on Wednesday. On its anticipated track, Ilsa is likely to make landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Broome and Port Hedland in 48 hours. The center of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa could make landfall near Wallal Downs. Ilsa is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa Intensifies Rapidly Northwest of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa intensified rapidly over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Tuesday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was located at latitude 15.2°S and longitude 120.5°E which put it about 225 miles (360 km) north-northwest of Broome, Australia. Ilsa was moving toward the southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Beagle Bay to Whim Creek. The Tropical Cyclone Watch included Broome and Port Hedland.

After moving southwest over the South Indian Ocean for three days without strengthening, a low pressure system previous designated as a tropical low intensified rapidly on Tuesday morning. The Australia Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Ilsa.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Isla was organizing quickly. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Ilsa’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ilsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that extends from northern Australia to the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa is likely to continue to intensify rapidly during the next 24 hours. It will strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon. Ilsa could intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane within 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will move around the northwest part of a high pressure system over western Australia. The high pressure system will steer Ilsa toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will move toward the south when it reaches the western end of the ridge on Wednesday. On its anticipated track, Ilsa is likely to make landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Broome and Port Hedland within 60 hours. The center of Tropical Cyclone Isla could make landfall near Wallal Downs. Ilsa is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Anika Moves Back over Water

The center of Tropical Cyclone Anika moved back over water on Monday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Anika was located at latitude 16.7°S and longitude 122.5°E which put it about 85 miles (140 km) north of Broome, Australia. Anika was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Anika moved back over water near Beagle Bay on Monday night. New thunderstorms began to develop near the center of Anika after the center moved back over water. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands southwest of the center of circulation and northeast of the center. Bands in other parts of Tropical Cyclone Anika consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Anika began to generated more upper level divergence.

Tropical Cyclone Anika will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Anika toward the southwest during that time period. Anika will move toward the south after it reaches the western end of the high pressure system in 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Anika could make landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Bidyadanga and De Grey in 42 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Anika will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Anika will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through are region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Anika will strengthen during the next 24 hours. However a portion of Anika’s circulation will still be over land, which will inhibit intensification.

Tropical Cyclone Anika will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of the coast of Western Australia. A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Beagle Bay to Bidyadanga. The Warning includes Broome. A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bidyadanga to De Grey. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches are in effect for the Fitzroy River, the De Grey River and the Sandy Desert.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vernon continued to spin east-southeast of Diego Garcia. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vernon was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 87.0°E which put it about 1115 miles (1785 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia. Vernon was moving toward the south-southwest at 4 m.p.h (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Anika Moves along Western Australia Coast

Tropical Cyclone Anika moved along the coast of Western Australia on Sunday afternoon. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Anika was located at latitude 15.2°S and longitude 125.7°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) southwest of Kalumburu, Australia. Anika was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Anika moved along the coast of Western Australia on Sunday afternoon. The center of Anika’s circulation was still over land. The strongest winds were occurring in the northwestern quadrant of Tropical Cyclone Anika, which was still over water. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Anika. The winds over land were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Troughton Island to Beagle Bay. The Warning included Cape Leveque and Derby. A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Beagle Bay to Bidyadanga. The Watch included Broome.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Anika remained well organized even though the center was over land. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of Anika. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in a bands in the western side of the circulation. There was also a strong band in the eastern periphery of Tropical Cyclone Anika. Bands in other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Anika will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Anika toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Anika will continue to move along the coast of Western Australia. Anika will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to places near the coast. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Warnings are in effect for the North Kimberly District and the West Kimberly District. Flood Watches are in effect for the Sandy Desert and for the Fitzroy River. The center of Anika could move back over water southwest of Kuri Bay on Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Anika is not likely to strengthen while the center is over land. However, since a portion of Anika’s circulation will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C, it could maintain its current intensity. Tropical Cyclone Anika will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Anika could strengthen again, if the center of circulation moves back over water.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vernon weakened east-southeast of Diego Garcia. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vernon was located at latitude 12.4°S and longitude 88.3°E which put it about 1140 miles (1835 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia. Vernon was moving toward the east at 13 m.p.h (09 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Anika Hits Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Anika hit Western Australia on Saturday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Anika was located at latitude 13.8°S and longitude 126.8°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northeast of Kalumburu, Australia. Anika was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h (12 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Anika made landfall on the coast of Western Australia northeast of Kalumburu on Saturday morning. Anika was intensifying at the time of landfall. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Anika’s circulation and an eye was developing. The developing eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Anika. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of Anika’s circulation.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the border between the Northern Territory and Western Australia and Kuri Bay. The Warning included Wyndham and Kalumburu. A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Kuri Bay to Beagle Bay.

Tropical Cyclone Anika will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Anika toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Anika will move along the coast of Western Australia. Anika will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to places near the coast. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches are in effect for the East, North and West Kimberly River and for the Fitzroy River.

Tropical Cyclone Anika will weaken slowly while it moves along the coast of Western Australia. However, since almost half of Anika’s circulation will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C, the weakening will occur slowly. In addition, Tropical Cyclone Anika will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Anika could strengthen again, if the center of circulation moves back over water.

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