Tag Archives: Beagle Bay

Tropical Cyclone Narelle Intensifies Again

Tropical Cyclone Narelle intensified again on Tuesday as it moved over the South Indian Ocean north of Western Australia.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 17.6°S and longitude 119.5°E which put the center about 180 miles (290 km) north-northeast of Port Hedland, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the west-southwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning that is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bidyadanga to Onslow.  That Warning includes Port Hedland and Karratha.  A Warning remains in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Leveque to Beagle Bay.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Onslow to Carnarvon.  The Watch includes Exmouth and Coral Bay.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle started to intensify again on Tuesday as it moved north of the coast of Western Australia.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Narelle’s circulation.  A new eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Narelle began to generate more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Narelle became more symmetrical as more of the circulation moved back over water.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Narelle’s circulation.

ropical Cyclone Narelle will move into an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Narelle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that is over Western Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Narelle’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Narelle is likely to strengthen back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Wednesday.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle could intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move parellel to the coast of Western Australia during the next day or so.  Narelle will move toward the south on Thursday when it moves around the western end of the high pressure system.

Bands in the southern part of Tropical Cyclone Narelle will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northern coast of Western Australia.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

 

Tropical Cyclone Narelle Moves Back Over Water

Tropical Cyclone Narelle moved back over water near the coast of Western Australia on Monday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 16.0°S and longitude 124.3°E which put the center about 225 miles (360 km) northwest of Broome, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning that is in effect for the portion of the coast from Beagle Bay to Kuri Bay.  Another Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from De Grey to Wallal Downs.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Exmouth to De Grey.  The Watch includes Onslow, Karratha, and Port Hedland.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle moved back over water near Kuri Bay on Monday evening.  Thunderstorms were developing in bands in the western side of Narelle’s circulation that were already over water.  Bands in the southern and eastern parts of Tropical Cyclone Narelle were still over Western Australia.  Those bands consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The distribution of winds speeds in Tropical Cyclone Narelle was also being affected by the fact that about half of Narelle’s circulation was still over Western Australia.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 115 miles (185 km) in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.  The winds in the southern side of Narelle’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move into an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Narelle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that is over Western Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Narelle’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Narelle is likely to strengthen back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move over water north of the coast of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to places near the northern coast of Western Australia.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for the North Kimberley Rivers, the West Kimberley Rivers and the East Kimberley Rivers.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle Moves over Joseph Bonaparte Gulf

Tropical Cyclone Narelle moved over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf north of the border between the northern Territory and Western Australia on Sunday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 14.7°S and longitude 128.6°E which put the center about 180 miles (290 km) southwest of Darwin, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning that is in effect for the portion of the coast from Mitchell Plateau to the border between Western Australia and the Northern Territory.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Watch that was in effect for the portion of the coast from Beagle Bay to the Mitchell Plateau.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle weakened to the equivalent of a tropical storm during the 36 hours it was over the Northern Territory in Australia.  The northern side of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was over the Joseph Bonapart Gulf.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the northern side of Narelle’s circulation.   The southern half of Narelle’s circulation was still over land.  Bands in the southern side of Tropical Cyclone Narelle consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The strongest winds in Tropical Cyclone Narelle were occurring in the bands of thunderstorms that were over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Narelle’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.  The winds in the southern half of Narelle’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force, because that part of Narelle was still over land.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move near the northern coast of Western Australia.  The center of Narelle is likely to move back over land during much of the next day or so.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle is unlikely to intensify much during the next 24 hours because the center will be overland.  Narelle will move into an environment favorable for intensification in a day or so when the center moves north of the coast of Western Australia.  Narelle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over northern Australia.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle is likely to intensify back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to places near the northern coast of Western Australia.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for the North Kimberley Rivers, the West Kimberley Rivers and the East Kimberley Rivers.

Tropical Cyclone Luana Brings Wind and Rain to Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Luana brought wind and rain to Western Australia on Saturday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Luana was located at latitude 17.5°S and longitude 123.1°E which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) west of Derby, Australia.  Luana was moving toward the southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning that was in effect for the portion of the coast from Broome to Cockatoo Island.  The Warning included Derby.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Luana made landfall on the Dampier Peninsula between Beagle Bay and Cape Leveque early on Saturday.  Luana intensified prior to making landfall.  Tropical Cyclone Luana was the equivalent of a strong tropical storm at the time of landfall.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Luana became more symmetrical before it made landfall.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Luana’s circulation.

A weather station in Derby in Western Australia reported a sustained wind speed of 43 m.p.h. (69 km/h) and a wind gust of 60 m.p.h. (96 km/h).  That weather station reported 7.43 inches (188.8 mm) of rain so far.

A weather station in Broome reported a sustained wind speed of 25 m.p.h. (41 km/h) and a wind gust of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The weather station in Broome reported 1.87 inches (47.4 mm) of rain.

Tropical Cyclone Luana Will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Luana toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.   On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Luana will move inland over Western Australia south of Derby during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Luana will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Western Australia.   Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Warnings are in effect for the West Kimberley District and the North Kimberley District.

A Flood Watch is in effect for the Western Sandy Desert.

Tropical Cyclone Luana could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of King Sound.

Tropical Cyclone Luana will weaken gradually as it moves farther inland over Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Luana Approaches Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Luana was approaching the coast of Western Australia on Friday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Luana was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 121.7°E which put the center about 140 miles (230 km) north-northwest of Broome, Australia.  Luana was moving toward the southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the portion of the coast from Broome to Kuri Bay.  The Warning included Derby.

A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bidyadanga to Broome.

Tropical Cyclone Luana strengthened on Friday as it moved closer to the coast of Western Australia.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Luana’s circulation.  More thunderstorms developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Luana.  Storms near the center of Luana generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Luana was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Luana’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out only 60 miles (95 km) in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Luana.

Tropical Cyclone Luana will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Luana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.   It will move under the middle part of an upper level ridge that is northwest of Australia.   The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.   Tropical Cyclone Luana will Intensify during the next few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Luana Will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Luana toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.   On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Luana will make landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Beagle Bay and Cape Leveque in a few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Luana will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the portion of Western Australia between Broome and Kuri Bay.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for the Northwest Kimberley and Western Sandy Desert regions.

Tropical Cyclone Luana could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley Brings Wind and Rain to Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Hayley brought wind and rain to Western Australia on Tuesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hayley was located at latitude 16.7°S and longitude 123.7°E which put the center about 50 miles (80 km) north-northwest of Derby, Australia.  Hayley was moving toward the east at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the region from north of Beagle Bay to south of Kuri Bay, Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley made landfall on the coast of Western Australia south of Lombadina on Tuesday morning.  Hayley moved across the northern part of the Dampier Peninsula.  Tropical Cyclone Haley was currently over King Sound.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Hayley was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Hayley’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Hayley.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Hayley was 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 20.6.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley will move around the northeastern part of an upper level trough over Western Australia.  The upper level trough will steer Hayley toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Hayley will make another landfall in Western Australia north of Derby in a few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley will bring strong winds and locally heavy to parts of Western Australia north and east of Derby.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations,

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has issued a Severe Weather Warning for heavy rainfall for parts of the Kimberley District.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Grant was moving south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 14.8°S and longitude 75.1°E which put the center about 565 miles (910 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Grant was moving toward the west-southwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Hayley rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon northwest of Australia early on Monday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hayley was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 120.3°E which put the center about 210 miles (340 km) northwest of Broome, Australia.  Hayley was moving toward the southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the portion of the coast from north of Broome to Cockatoo Island.  The Warning included the Dampier Peninsula and Derby.

The Australia Bureau of Meteorology issued a Watch for the region from east of Derby to Kuri Bay.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon early on Monday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Hayley’s circulation.  A small eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Hayley.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hayley’s circulation.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Hayley was very small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Hayley’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Hayley.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Hayley was 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 19.8.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Hayley will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of a small upper level ridge that is northwest of Australia.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Hayley is likely to continue to  intensify during the next 12 hours. Hayley could intensify rapidly because its circulation is so small.  Tropical Cyclone Hayley will move under the northeastern part of an upper level trough that is near the west coast of Australia in about 12 hours.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Hayley’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Cyclone Hayley will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Hayley toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Hayley will make landfall in the northern part of the Dampier Peninsula between Beagle Bay and Cape Leveque in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley is likely to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at the time of landfall.  Hayley will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Dampier Peninsula and parts of Western Australia.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Hayley could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along portions of the coast near where the center makes landfall.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Grant intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 13.8°S and longitude 80.0°E which put the center about 710 miles (1145 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Grant was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

The Hurricane Intensity Index for Tropical Cyclone Grant was 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.7.  Tropical Cyclone Grant was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Charley when Charley hit Southwest Florida in 2004.

Tropical Low Prompts Watch for Western Australia

A risk posed by a Tropical Low prompted the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to issue a Watch for a portion of the coast of Western Australia on Thursday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 13.8°S and longitude 121.8°E which put the center about 215 miles (350 km) west-northwest of the Kuri Bay, Australia.  The Tropical Low was moving toward the east-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (7 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Mitchell Plateau to Beagle Bay.  The Watch includes Derby and Beagle Bay.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean west of Australia exhibited more organization on Thursday morning and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology classified the system as a Tropical Low.  The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center designated the low pressure system as Invest 93S.

The distribution of thunderstorms in the Tropical Low was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of the Tropical Low.  Bands in the eastern side of the Tropical Low consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the Tropical Low.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The Tropical Low will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that extends from over Australia to the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the Tropical Low.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  The Tropical Low could intensify during the next 24 hours.

The Tropical Low will move around the western end of a high pressure system over northern Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the Tropical Low will make landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Kuri Bay and Derby in 36 hours.

The Tropical Low will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Western Australia.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Courtney continued to strengthen south-southeast of the Cocos Islands.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Courtney was located at latitude 16.8°S and longitude 99.5°E which put the center about 380 miles (610 km) south-southeast of the Cocos Islands.  Courtney was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Tuesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was located at latitude 15.9°S and longitude 120.3°E which put it about 190 miles (305 km) northwest of Broome, Australia. Ilsa was moving toward the southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Beagle Bay to Whim Creek. The Tropical Cyclone Watch included Broome and Port Hedland.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa intensified rapidly over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Tuesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Ilsa’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated strong upper level divergence that pumped a large quantity of mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of a large quantity of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly, which contributed to the rapid increase in wind speed.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Ilsa’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ilsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that extends from northern Australia to the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa is likely to continue to intensify rapidly during the next 24 hours. Ilsa could intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane within 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over western Australia. The high pressure system will steer Ilsa toward the southwest during the next 18 hours. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will move toward the south when it reaches the western end of the ridge on Wednesday. On its anticipated track, Ilsa is likely to make landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Broome and Port Hedland in 48 hours. The center of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa could make landfall near Wallal Downs. Ilsa is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa Intensifies Rapidly Northwest of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa intensified rapidly over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Tuesday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was located at latitude 15.2°S and longitude 120.5°E which put it about 225 miles (360 km) north-northwest of Broome, Australia. Ilsa was moving toward the southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Beagle Bay to Whim Creek. The Tropical Cyclone Watch included Broome and Port Hedland.

After moving southwest over the South Indian Ocean for three days without strengthening, a low pressure system previous designated as a tropical low intensified rapidly on Tuesday morning. The Australia Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Ilsa.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Isla was organizing quickly. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Ilsa’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ilsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that extends from northern Australia to the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa is likely to continue to intensify rapidly during the next 24 hours. It will strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon. Ilsa could intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane within 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will move around the northwest part of a high pressure system over western Australia. The high pressure system will steer Ilsa toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will move toward the south when it reaches the western end of the ridge on Wednesday. On its anticipated track, Ilsa is likely to make landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Broome and Port Hedland within 60 hours. The center of Tropical Cyclone Isla could make landfall near Wallal Downs. Ilsa is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it makes landfall.