Tag Archives: Australia

Tropical Low Spins Over Gulf of Carpentaria

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A Tropical Low was spinning over the Gulf of Carpentaria on Sunday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 12.1°S and longitude 138.1°E which put the center about 100 miles (160 km) east of Nhulunbuy, Australia.   The Tropical Low was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A low pressure system was spinning over the Gulf of Carpentaria on Sunday.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology was designating the low pressure system as a Tropical Low.  The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center was designating the low pressure system as Tropical Cyclone 31P.

The Tropical Low exhibited better organization on Sunday night.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of the Tropical Low.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the Tropical Low.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The Tropical Low will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over northern Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the tip of the Tropical Low.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent some intensification.  The Tropical Low could intensify during the next 24 hours.

The Tropical Low will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, The Tropical Low will pass near Nhulunbuy and Cape Wessel.  The Tropical Low will move over the Arafura Sea on Tuesday.

The Tropical Low will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the far northeastern part of the Northern Territory of Australia.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Tropical Low Prompts Watch for Western Australia

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The risk posed by a Tropical Low over the Timor Sea caused the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to issue a Watch for a portion of the coast of Western Australia on Friday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 9.8°S and longitude 129.1°E which put the center about 215 miles (350 km) northwest of Darwin, Australia.  The Tropical Low was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Cockatoo Island to the Berkeley River Mouth.  The Watch included Kalumburu and Kuri Bay.

The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center was designating the Tropical Low as Invest 96P.

Vertical wind shear was causing the distribution of thunderstorms to be asymmetrical.  The Tropical Low as under the northern part of an upper level ridge that extended from Australia to the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge was producing northeasterly winds that were causing the vertical wind shear.  Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the Tropical Low.  Bands in the eastern side of the Tropical Low consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the Tropical Low.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The balance of inflow and outflow was causing the surface pressure to remain constant.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The Tropical Low will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  The northern part of an upper level ridge over Australia and the South Indian Ocean will continue to produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the Tropical Low.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the Tropical Low is likely to intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

The Tropical Low will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the low pressure system will move away from Darwin.  The low pressure system could pass near Cape Londonderry and Cape Bougainville on Saturday.

 

Tropical Cyclone Forming Over Timor Sea

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A tropical cyclone was forming over the Timor Sea on Thursday morning.  A low pressure system was gradually organizing into a tropical cyclone over the Timor Sea north of Darwin, Australia on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of the low pressure system was located at latitude 8.7°S and longitude 130.3°E which put the center about 270 miles (435 km) north of Darwin, Australia.  The low pressure system was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A low pressure system over the Timor Sea north of Darwin, Australia exhibited more organization on Thursday morning.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of the low pressure system.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the low pressure system.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The low pressure system will move through an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  The low pressure system will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over Australia and the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the low pressure system.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the low pressure system is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

The low pressure system will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the low pressure system toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the low pressure system will move away from Darwin.  The low pressure system could pass near Cape Londonderry and Cape Bougainville.

Tropical Cyclone Courtney Develops Northwest of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Courtney developed over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Courtney was located at latitude 17.4°S and longitude 106.3°E which put the center about 585 miles (945 km) northwest of Exmouth, Australia.  Courtney was moving toward the west-southwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia strengthened on Tuesday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Courtney.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Courtney’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Courtney.  Storms near the center of Courtney generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Courtney was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of Courtney’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Courtney will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Courtney will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that is west of Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Courtney’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Courtney is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Courtney will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Courtney toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Courtney will pass far to the south of Christmas Islands.  Courtney will pass south of the Cocos Islands later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Brings Wind and Rain to Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone Alfred brought wind and rain to Brisbane on Friday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 27.4°S and longitude 153.4°E which put the center about 45 miles (75 km) east of Brisbane, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Noosa, Queensland to Ballina, New South Wales.  The Warning includes Brisbane.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred brought wind and rain to the area around Brisbane, Australia on Friday.  A band of heavier rain and stronger winds stretched from Southport through Beenleigh to Brisbane.

A weather station at the airport in Brisbane reported a sustained wind speed of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 58 m.p.h. (93 km/h).  The airport had received 0.79 inches (20.2  mm) of rain.  A weather station at Coolangatta reported a sustained wind speed of 37 m.p.h. (59 km/h) and a wind gust of 62 m.p.h. (100 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Alfred was the equivalent of a tropical storm when it made landfall on the east coast of Australia.  The circulation around Alfred was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 275 miles (445 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is southeast of Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Tropical Cyclone Alfred toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred will pass near Brisbane during  the next few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales.   Bands in the southern side of Alfred’s circulation will drop the heaviest rain.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred will also be capable of causing a storm surge of up to six feet (1.8 meters) along portions of the coast.

A Flood Watch is in effect for southeast Queensland.  A Flood Watch is also in effect for the northern rivers of New South Wales.

 

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Approaches Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone Alfred was approaching Brisbane, Australia on Thursday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 27.3°S and longitude 154.9°E which put the center about 130 miles (210 km) east of Brisbane, Australia.    Alfred was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Double Island Point, Queensland to Grafton, New South Wales.  The Warning includes Brisbane.

An upper low near the east coast of Australia continued to produce northwesterly winds that blew across the top of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  Those winds also caused the distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Alfred to be asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern part of Alfred’s circulation.  Bands in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Alfred consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 18 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, the upper level low near the east coast of Australia will continue to produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Alfred’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred is close to being in equilibrium with its surrounding environment.  The intensity of Tropical Cyclone Alfred could remain relatively constant during the next 18 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is southeast of Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Tropical Cyclone Alfred toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred will reach the east coast of Australia near Brisbane in 18 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales.   Bands in the southern side of Alfred’s circulation will drop the heaviest rain.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred will also be capable of causing a storm surge of up to six feet (1.8 meters) along portions of the coast.

A Flood Watch is in effect for southeast Queensland.  A Flood Watch is also in effect for the northern rivers of New South Wales.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Meanders East of Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone Alfred meandered east of Brisbane, Australia on Wednesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 27.3°S and longitude 156.6°E which put the center about 230 miles (370 km) east of Brisbane, Australia.    Alfred was moving toward the east-southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Double Island Point, Queensland to Grafton, New South Wales.  The Warning includes Brisbane.

An upper low near the east coast of Australia produced west-northwesterly winds that blew across the top of Tropical Cyclone Alfred on Wednesday.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  Those winds also caused the distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Alfred to become more asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Alfred’s circulation.  A few thunderstorms were also occurring in a band in the northern edge of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Bands in the other parts of Alfred’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

he circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was very large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 320 miles (520 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, the upper level low near the east coast of  Australia will continue to produce west-northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Alfred’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The stroong wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred could be close to being in equilibrium with its surrounding environment.  The intensity of Tropical Cyclone Alfred could remain relatively constant during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is southeast of Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Tropical Cyclone Alfred toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will reach the east coast of Australia near Brisbane in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Alfred will also be capable of causing a storm surge of up to six feet (1.8 meters) along portions of the coast.

A Flood Watch is in effect for southeast Queensland.  A Flood Watch is also in effect for the Northern Rivers of New South Wales.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Moves Toward Australia

Tropical Cyclone Alfred started to move toward the east coast of Australia on Tuesday.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for a portion of the coast.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 27.8°S and longitude 158.2°E which put the center about 335 miles (540 km) east of Brisbane, Australia.   Alfred was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Double Island Point , Queensland to Grafton, New South Wales.  The Warning includes Brisbane.

A Watch remains in effect for the portion of the coast from Sandy Cape to Double Island Point, Queensland.

The structure of Tropical Cyclone Alfred started to change when Alfred began to move west toward the east coast of Australia.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western and southern parts of Alfred’s circulation.  Bands in the northern and eastern parts of Tropical Cyclone Alfred consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Alfred generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was very large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, the upper level low over eastern Australia will continue to produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Alfred’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred could be close to being in equilibrium with its surrounding environment.  The intensity of Tropical Cyclone Alfred could remain relatively constant during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is southeast of Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Tropical Cyclone Alfred toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will approach the east coast of Australia near Brisbane in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Alfred will also be capable of causing a storm surge of up to six feet (1.8 meters) along portions of the coast.

A Flood Watch is in effect for southeast Queensland.  A Flood Watch is also in effect for the Northern Rivers and Mid-North Coast of New South Wales.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Lingers East of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Alfred lingered over the Coral Sea east of Australia on Monday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 27.3°S and longitude 158.8°E which put the center about 370 miles (595 km) east of Brisbane, Australia.   Alfred was moving toward the southeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Sandy Cape, Queensland to Grafton, New South Wales.  The Watch includes Brisbane.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred did not look much like a tropical cyclone on satellite images on Monday night.  An upper level trough over the Coral Sea was producing strong northerly winds that were blowing across the top of Alfred’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong wind shear was making the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Alfred very asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern part of Alfred’s circulation.  Bands in the northern part of Tropical Cyclone Alfred consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was very large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 260 miles (420 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, the upper level trough over the Coral Sea will continue to produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Alfred’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred could be close to being in equilibrium with its surrounding environment.  The intensity of Tropical Cyclone Alfred could remain relatively constant during the next 24 hours.

A high pressure system southeast of Australia will block Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  The high pressure system will keep Alfred from moving farther to the southeast.  The high pressure system will steer Tropical Cyclone Alfred toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred could approach the east coast of Australia near Brisbane in 48 hours.

 

 

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Prompts Watch for East Coast of Australia

A potential risk posed by Tropical Cyclone Alfred prompted the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to issue a Watch for a portion of the east coast of Australia on Sunday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 26.6°S and longitude 157.4°E which put the center about 290 miles (465 km) east-northeast of Brisbane, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Sandy Cape, Queensland to Grafton, New South Wales.  The Watch includes Brisbane.

An upper level trough over eastern Australia continued to produce northwesterly winds that blew across the top of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear was making the distribution of thunderstorms in Alfred asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Bands in the northern part of Alfred’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was still large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, the upper level trough over eastern Australia will continue to produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Alfred’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred could be close to being in equilibrium with its surrounding environment.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred could intensify a little during the next 24 hours in spite of the vertical wind shear.

The upper level trough over eastern Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Alfred toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  Alfred is forecast to start to move toward the west on Tuesday.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred could approach the east coast of Australia later this week.