Tropical Cyclone Alfred was approaching Brisbane, Australia on Thursday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 27.3°S and longitude 154.9°E which put the center about 130 miles (210 km) east of Brisbane, Australia.    Alfred was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Double Island Point, Queensland to Grafton, New South Wales.  The Warning includes Brisbane.

An upper low near the east coast of Australia continued to produce northwesterly winds that blew across the top of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  Those winds also caused the distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Alfred to be asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern part of Alfred’s circulation.  Bands in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Alfred consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 18 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, the upper level low near the east coast of Australia will continue to produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Alfred’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred is close to being in equilibrium with its surrounding environment.  The intensity of Tropical Cyclone Alfred could remain relatively constant during the next 18 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is southeast of Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Tropical Cyclone Alfred toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred will reach the east coast of Australia near Brisbane in 18 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales.   Bands in the southern side of Alfred’s circulation will drop the heaviest rain.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred will also be capable of causing a storm surge of up to six feet (1.8 meters) along portions of the coast.

A Flood Watch is in effect for southeast Queensland.  A Flood Watch is also in effect for the northern rivers of New South Wales.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred meandered east of Brisbane, Australia on Wednesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 27.3°S and longitude 156.6°E which put the center about 230 miles (370 km) east of Brisbane, Australia.    Alfred was moving toward the east-southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Double Island Point, Queensland to Grafton, New South Wales.  The Warning includes Brisbane.

An upper low near the east coast of Australia produced west-northwesterly winds that blew across the top of Tropical Cyclone Alfred on Wednesday.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  Those winds also caused the distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Alfred to become more asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Alfred’s circulation.  A few thunderstorms were also occurring in a band in the northern edge of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Bands in the other parts of Alfred’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

he circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was very large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 320 miles (520 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, the upper level low near the east coast of  Australia will continue to produce west-northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Alfred’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The stroong wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred could be close to being in equilibrium with its surrounding environment.  The intensity of Tropical Cyclone Alfred could remain relatively constant during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is southeast of Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Tropical Cyclone Alfred toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will reach the east coast of Australia near Brisbane in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Alfred will also be capable of causing a storm surge of up to six feet (1.8 meters) along portions of the coast.

A Flood Watch is in effect for southeast Queensland.  A Flood Watch is also in effect for the Northern Rivers of New South Wales.