Tropical Cyclone Danilo formed south of Diego Garcia on Friday. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was located at latitude 11.6°S and longitude 72.3°E which put it about 290 miles (465 km) south of Diego Garcia. Danilo was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.
The circulation around a low pressure system strengthened on Friday and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Danilo. There was a well defined low level center of circulation evident on satellite images. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Danilo. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands south and west of the center. Bands north and east of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.
There was also a tropical depression located east-southeast of Tropical Cyclone Danilo. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 14.4°S and longitude 81.4°E which put it about 770 miles (1240 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia. The depression was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.
Tropical Cyclone Danilo will be in an environment favorable for intensification during the next few days. Danilo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. However, the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Danilo will interact with the circulation around the tropical depression to its east-southeast. The interaction of the two circulations will disrupt the circulation on the eastern side of Danilo and that could prevent intensification during the next several days. Eventually,the two circulations are forecast to merge next week.
Tropical Cyclone Danilo will remain nearly stationary during the next day or so. Danilo could move slowly toward the southeast when the the tropical depression approaches it during the weekend. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Danilo is forecast to remain south of Diego Garcia. Danilo could eventually move west toward Rodrigues next week.