Tag Archives: Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Bheki To Bring Wind and Rain to Rodrigues

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Tropical Cyclone Bheki will bring wind and rain to Rodrigues in the South Indian Ocean.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki was located at latitude 18.4°S and longitude 64.4°E which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) northeast of Rodrigues.  Bheki was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki weakened gradually on Tuesday as it approached Rodrigues.  The effects of vertical wind shear and drier air started to affect the structure of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern side of Bheki’s circulation.  Bands in the western part of Tropical Cyclone Bheki consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Bheki generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone.

The effects of the vertical wind shear also affected the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Bheki’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the southern side of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the northern side of Bheki’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will continue to move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bheki will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough near Madagascar.  The upper level level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bheki’s circulation.  Those upper level winds will cause the moderate vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Bheki will continue to weaken during the next 24 hours because of the moderate vertical wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bheki toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center Tropical Cyclone Bheki will pass just to the north of Rodrigues during the next 12 hours.  Bheki could be near Mauritius in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Rodrigues. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki Weakens Over South Indian Ocean

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Tropical Cyclone Bheki weakened over the South Indian Ocean on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki was located at latitude 17.7°S and longitude 68.1°E which put the center about 345 miles (555 km) east-northeast of Rodrigues.  Bheki was moving toward the west-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

More vertical wind shear caused Tropical Cyclone Bheki to weaken on Monday as it moved over the South Indian Ocean.  It was no longer possible to detect an eye on satellite images of Bheki.  Thunderstorms were still occurring around the center of Bheki’s circulation.  Those thunderstorms generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.

There was still a large area of strong winds in Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Bheki’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Bheki was 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size INdex (HWISI) was 31.9.  Tropical Cyclone Bheki was similar in intensity to Hurricane Matthew when Matthew hit North Carolina  in 2016.  Bheki was bigger than Matthew was.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will continue to move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bheki will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bheki’s circulation.  Those upper level winds will cause the moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Bheki will weaken during the next 24 hours because of the moderate vertical wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bheki toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center Tropical Cyclone Bheki will approach Rodrigues in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Rodrigues.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki Strengthens to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

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Tropical Cyclone Bheki strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved over the South Indian Ocean on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki was located at latitude 16.9°S and longitude 69.7°E which put the center about 475 miles (765 km) east-northeast of Rodrigues.  Bheki was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on Sunday.  A small circular eye was present at the center of Bheki’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorm were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki. Storms near the center of Bheki’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bheki was symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Bheki’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Bheki was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 20.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size INdex (HWISI) was 45.4. Tropical Cyclone Bheki was similar in intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017. Bheki was bigger than Harvey was.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bheki will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  An upper level trough will approach Bheki from the west.  The upper level level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bheki’s circulation.  Those upper level l winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Cyclone Bheki will weaken during the next 24 hours because of more vertical wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bheki toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center Tropical Cyclone Bheki will pass north of Rodrigues in two days..

Tropical Cyclone Bheki Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

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Tropical Cyclone Bheki intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean on Saturday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 71.4°E which put the center about 610 miles (980 km) east-northeast of Rodrigues.  Bheki was moving toward the southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday.  A circular eye formed at the center of Bheki’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorm were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  Storms near the center of Bheki’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bheki increased on Saturday when Bheki intensified.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Bheki’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Bheki was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size INdex (HWISI) was 39.3.  Tropical Cyclone Bheki was similar in intensity to Hurricane Rita when Rita hit Southwest Louisiana in 2005.  Bheki was a little smaller than Rita was.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bheki will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Bheki is likely to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bheki toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move toward Rodrigues.

Tropical Cyclone Djoungou Develops North of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Djoungou developed over the South Indian Ocean north of Rodrigues on Thursday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Djoungou was located at latitude 15.3°S and longitude 65.1°E which put it about 315 miles (505 km) north-northeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues. Djoungou was moving toward the east at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean north of Rodrigues strengthened on Thursday and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Djoungou. The circulation around Djoungou was organizing quickly. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of the center of Tropical Cyclone Djoungou. Storms near the center of Djoungou’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Thunderstorms developed in bands in the northern and eastern parts of Tropical Cyclone Djoungou. Bands in the western part of Djoungou’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Djoungou was asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Djoungou’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Tropical Cyclone Djoungou. The winds in the western half of Djoungou were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Djoungou will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Djoungou will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Djoungou will intensify during the next 24 hours. Djoungou could intensify rapidly at times. Tropical Cyclone Djoungou could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Djoungou will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Djoungou toward the east during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Djoungou will move farther away from Rodrigues. Djoungou could pass south of Diego Garcia in a few days.

Anggrek Transitions to an Extratropical Cyclone

Former Tropical Cyclone Anggrek made a transition to an extratropical cyclone over the South Indian Ocean during Tuesday night. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of former Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was located at latitude 33.3°S and longitude 84.8°E which put it about 1925 miles (3105 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Anggrek was moving toward the east-southeast at 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Former Tropical Cyclone Anggrek made a transition to a powerful extratropical cyclone over the South Indian Ocean. Anggrek moved over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 22°C. It moved under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is east of Madagascar. The upper level trough produced northwesterly winds that caused strong vertical wind shear. The combination of colder water and strong wind shear caused formal Tropical Cyclone Anggrek to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The transition to an extratropical cyclone also caused changes to the structure of former Tropical Cyclone Anggrek. The strong northwesterly winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms in Anggrek’s circulation. Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern part of former Tropical Cyclone Anggrek. Bands in the northern part of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the eastern side of former Tropical Cyclone Anggrek. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Anggrek’s circulation.

The upper level trough east of Madagascar will steer former Tropical Cyclone Anggrek quickly toward the east-southeast. On its anticipated track, Former Tropical Cyclone Anggrek could approach southwestern Australia later this week.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, a tropical depression formed east of Rodrigues. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 19.9°S and longitude 66.2°E which put it about 175 miles (280 km) east of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues. The tropical depression was moving toward the south-southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Turns Southwest

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek turned southwest over the South Indian Ocean west of Cocos Island on Tuesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was located at latitude 13.6°S and longitude 91.5°E which put it about 370 miles (600 km) west of Cocos Islands. Anggrek was moving toward the south-southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek strengthened after it started to move toward the southwest on Tuesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and western side of the center of Anggrek’s circulation. More thunderstorms formed in bands revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center of Anggrek generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Anggrek will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weaker near the axis of the ridge and there will be less vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is likely to strengthen back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system west of Australia. The high pressure system will steer Anggrek toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Anggrek will move far to the southeast of Diego Garcia later this week.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, a tropical depression formed east of Rodrigues. At 4:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 19.8°S and longitude 57.9°E which put it about 265 miles (425 km) east of Rodrigues. The tropical depression was moving toward the south-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Moves West of Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek moved west of Cocos Islands on Thursday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was located at latitude 12.3°S and longitude 93.1°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) west of Cocos Islands. Anggrek was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek did not change much during the past 24 hours. The inner end of a rainband was still wrapped around the western and northern sides of the center of Anggrek’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (126 km) from the center of Anggrek’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek will move through an environment a little more favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Anggrek will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the eastern section of the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Anggrek toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Anggrek will move farther west of Cocos Islands on Friday.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Belal meandered south-southeast of Rodrigues. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Belal was located at latitude 23.9°S and longitude 65.5°E which put it about 315 miles (510 km) south-southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodigues. Belal was moving toward the northeast at 4 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Spins Northwest of Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek continued to spin over the South Indian Ocean northwest of the Cocos Islands on Wednesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was located at latitude 10.8°S and longitude 93.9°E which put it about 205 miles (330 km) northwest of Cocos Islands. Anggrek was moving toward the south-southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Watch was in effect for the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek exhibited a little more organization on Wednesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and northern sides of the center of Anggrek’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Anggrek’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Anggrek will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the eastern part of the South Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Anggrek’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent strengthening. Tropical Cyclone Anggrek could strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek will move around the western part of a high pressure system west of Australia. The pressure system will start to steer Anggrek toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Anggrek will move west-northwest of Cocos Islands on Thursday.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Belal churned south of Rodrigues. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Belal was located at latitude 24.2°S and longitude 63.9°E which put it about 310 miles (500 km) south of Port Mathurin, Rodigues. Belal was moving toward the east at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Meanders Northwest of Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek meandered slowly over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Cocos Islands on Tuesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was located at latitude 9.7°S and longitude 94.1°E which put it about 255 miles (410 km) northwest of Cocos Islands. Anggrek was moving toward the east-southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Watch was in effect for the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek strengthened gradually on Tuesday is it meandered over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Cocos Islands. More thunderstorms formed in bands revolving around the center of Anggrek’s circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 ours. Anggrek will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the eastern part of the South Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Anggrek’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent strengthening. Tropical Cyclone Anggrek could strengthen more during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek will move around the western part of a high pressure system west of Australia. The pressure system will start to steer Anggrek toward the south during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Anggrek will remain northwest of Cocos Islands on Wednesday.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Belal moved south of Rodrigues. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Belal was located at latitude 24.3°S and longitude 62.9°E which put it about 310 miles (500 km) south of Port Mathurin, Rodigues. Belal was moving toward the southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.