Tag Archives: Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai Passes Southeast of Rodrigues

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Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was passing southeast of Rodrigues on Sunday evening.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 21.3°S and longitude 62.2°E which put the center about 130 miles (210 km) east-southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Dudzai was moving toward the west-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

The intensity of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai did not change much on Sunday.  Even though Dudzai’s intensity did not change a lot, its structure began to show signs of the start of a transition to an extratropical cyclone.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai moved over slightly cooler water on Sunday.  Since the slightly cooler water contained less energy, thunderstorms in Dudzai did not rise as high into the atmosphere.  There were also fewer thunderstorms near the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Some bands of showers and thunderstorms were still revolving around the center of Dudzai’s circulation.

The distribution of wind winds speeds in Tropical Cyclone Dudzai continued to be very asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 165 miles (265 km) in the southern half of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.

Tropical Cyclone Duzai will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the eastern part of an upper level low that is southeast of Mauritius and La Reunion.  The upper level low will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dudzai’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear and cooler Sea Surface Temperatures will cause Tropical Cyclone Dudzai to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next couple of days.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, ropical Cyclone Dudzai will move away from Rodrigues on Monday.  Dudzai will pass southeast of Mauritius and La Reunion early this week.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai Approaches Rodrigues

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Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was approaching Rodrigues on Saturday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 19.2°S and longitude 66.1°E which put the center about 210 miles (335 km) east-northeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Dudzai was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai continued to weaken on Saturday, although Dudzai’s intensity appeared to have stabilized on Saturday evening.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were still revolving around the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Dudzai generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and east of the tropical cyclone.  However, the removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere for much of Saturday.  So, the surface pressure continued to increase on Saturday.  The removal of mass seemed to be moving back into equilibrium with the convergence of mass in the lower levels on Saturday evening.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Dudzai continued to be asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (300 km) in the southern half of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.

Tropical Cyclone Duzai will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Dudzai’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai could intensify a little on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the west-southwest on during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will pass near Rodrigues in 18 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Rodrigues.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai Churns Westward

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Tropical Cyclone Dudzai continued to churn westward over the South Indian Ocean on Friday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 17.6°S and longitude 68.8°E which put the center about 750 miles (1210 km) south-southwest of Diego Garcia.  Dudzai was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai weakened as it churned westward over the South Indian Ocean on Friday.  An eye was no longer visible on satellite imagery of Dudzai on Friday evening.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were still revolving around the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Dudzai generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  However, the removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Friday.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dudzai increased on Friday even though Dudzai was weakening.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 75 miles (120 km) in the southwestern quadrant of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the other quadrants of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (250 km) in the southern half of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HHI) for Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was 17.8,  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.8.

Tropical Cyclone Duzai will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level rdige that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dudzai’s circulation.  Those winds will cause vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will continue to weaken on Saturday because of the vertical wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the west-southwest on during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will approach Rodrigues in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai Intensifies Back to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

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Tropical Cyclone Dudzai intensified back to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane as it moved over the South Indian south of Diego Garcia on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 16.9°S and longitude 72.4°E which put the center about 675 miles (1090 km) south of Diego Garcia.  Dudzai was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 942 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai rapidly intensified back to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday.  Dudzai started to intensify rapidly after it moved west of cooler water that its winds had mixed to the surface of the ocean earlier this week.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was able to extract more energy from the South Indian Ocean, which cause it to intensify rapidly.

A small circular eye was visible again on satellite images at the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving round the core of Dudzai’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Dudzai generated more upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dudzai increased on Thursday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northern side of Dudzai’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 41.3.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Tropical Cyclone Duzai will move through an environment favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level trough that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Dudzai’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is likely to start to weaken on Friday because of the vertical wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the west on during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will remain far to the south of Diego Garcia.  Dudzai could approach Rodrigues during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Grant Moves Northeast of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Grant moved northeast of Rodrigues over the South Indian Ocean on Friday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 15.2°S and longitude 66.4°E which put the center about 375 miles (605 km) north-northeast of Rodrigues.  Grant was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Grant was maintaining its intensity on Friday morning.  An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean continued to produce easterly winds that blew toward the top of Grant’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear was affecting the structure of Tropical Cyclone Grant.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the western half of Grant’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of Grant consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Grant still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. However, the removal of mass in the upper levels was about the same as the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure remained nearly constant.

The vertical wind shear was also affecting the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Grant.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the western side of Grant’s circulation.  The winds in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Grant were blowing at less that tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Grant will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Grant’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Grant is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian  Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Grant toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Grant will pass north of Rodrigues on Saturday.  Grant will pass north of Mauritius and La Reunion on Monday.  Tropical Cyclone Grant could approach the east coast of Madagascar on Tuesday.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Iggy weakened south-southeast of Christmas Island.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Iggy was located at latitude 16.8°S and longitude 1086°E which put the center about 455 miles (735 km) south-southeast of Christmas Island.  Iggy was moving toward the southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Grant Weakens

Tropical Cyclone Grant weakened as it moved over the South Indian Ocean northeast of Rodrigues on Thursday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 15.7°S and longitude 67.1°E which put the center about 370 miles (600 km) northeast of Rodrigues.  Grant was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Grant weakened rapidly on Thursday.  An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean produced easterly winds that blew toward the top of Grant’s circulation.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  The strong wind shear caused Tropical Cyclone Grant to weaken rapidly.

The strong vertical wind shear also affected the structure of Tropical Cyclone Grant.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the western half of Grant’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of Grant consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Grant still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.  However, the removal of mass in the upper levels was much less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased rapidly on Thursday.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Grant was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Grant’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Grant will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Grant’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Grant is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Grant toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Grant will pass north of Rodrigues on Saturday.  Grant will pass north of Mauritius and La Reunion on Monday.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Iggy moved farther away from Christmas Island.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Iggy was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 106.5°E which put the center about 425 miles (685 km) south-southeast of Christmas Island.  Iggy was moving toward the south-southeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Grant Passes South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Grant passed south of Diego Garcia on Tuesday night.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 69.2°E which put the center about 625 miles (1005 km) south-southwest of Diego Garcia.  Grant was moving toward the west at 26 m.p.h. (43 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Grant weakened as it passed south of Diego Garcia on Tuesday night.  An eye was no longer visible on satellite images of Grant.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Grant’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Grant generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure was increasing.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Grant was still very small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Grant’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Grant was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.5.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Grant will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Grant’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Grant to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Grant toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Grant will move farther away from Diego Garcia.  Grant will pass north of Rodrigues in 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge Moves Away From Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Chenge moved away from Diego Garcia on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chenge was located at latitude 8.7°S and longitude 67.9°E which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) west-southwest of Diego Garcia.  Chenge was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge strengthened a little on Sunday as it moved away from Diego Garcia.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of Chege’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Chenge.  Storms near the center of Chenge generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Chenge was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 235 miles (380 km) in the southern half of Chenge’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Chenge.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Chenge will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Chenge’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Chenge could continue to intensify on Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chenge toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chenge will pass north of Rodrigues in a couple of days.

Tropical Cyclone Jude Nears Southern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Jude was nearing southern Madagascar on Friday morning.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 23.3°S and longitude 42.1°E which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) west of Toliara, Madagascar.  Jude was moving toward the east-southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude was intensifying gradually as it neared the coast of southern Madagascar on Friday morning.  Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Jude’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.  Storms near the center of Jude’s circulation pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude remained relatively the same.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Jude’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Jude will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean near Madagascar.  The upper level ridge will produce west-northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jude’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Jude could intensify a little more during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean . The high pressure system will steer Jude toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude will reach the coast of southern Madagascar just to the south of Toliara in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will be the equivalent of a tropical storm when it reaches the southern coast of Madagascar.  Jude will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Jude could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) on the west coast of Madagascar.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ivone made a transition to an extratropical cyclone south-southeast of Rodrigues.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ivone was located at latitude 25.1°S and longitude 65.6°E which put the center about 395 miles (640 km) south-southeast of Rodrigues.  Ivone was moving toward the west-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude Moves Back over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Jude moved back over the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 19.9°S and longitude 37.8°E which put the center about 450 miles (725 km) west-northwest of Toliara, Madagascar.  Jude was moving toward the southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (60 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude began to intensify after the center of its circulation moved back over the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday night.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Jude’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in the bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.  Storms near the center of Jude generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Jude will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.   It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Jude will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Jude toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jude will move toward southern Madagascar.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jude could reach the southern coast of Madagascar near Toliara in 36 hours.  Jude will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Jude could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) on the west coast of Madagascar.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ivone wes weakening east-southeast of Rodrigues.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ivone was located at latitude 22.5°S and longitude 68.0°E which put the center about 360 miles (580 km) east-southeast of Rodrigues.  Ivone was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.