Tag Archives: Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Horacio Continues to Weaken

Tropical Cyclone Horacio continued to weaken as it moved over the South Indian Ocean on Wednesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio was located at latitude 30.9°S and longitude 68.1°E which put the center about 815 miles (1315 km) south-southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Horacio was moving toward the south-southeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

An upper level trough that was southeast of Madagascar was producing strong northwesterly winds that were blowing across the top of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong northwesterly winds were also blowing the top half of Horacio’s circulation to the southeast of the low level center of Horacio.  The strong winds blew the tops off of thunderstorms near the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  Bands near the center and in the northwestern half of Horacio’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  There will some thunderstorms in the southeastern part of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.

The distribution of wind speeds near the surface in Tropical Cyclone Horacio were still relatively symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Horacio’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will continue to move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Horacio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 23°C.  The upper level trough that is southeast of Madagascar will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio will continue to weaken during the next 24 hours because of the colder water and the strong vertical wind shear.

Since strong vertical wind shear is blowing the top off of Tropical Cyclone Horacio, Horacio will be steered by weather systems in the lower atmosphere.  Horacio will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Horacio toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Horacio will continue to move farther away from Rodrigues.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio Weakens

Tropical Cyclone Horacio weakened on Tuesday as it moved over the South Indian Ocean.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio was located at latitude 25.6°S and longitude 65.2°E which put the center about 415 miles (665 km) south-southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Horacio was moving toward the south-southeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio weakened on Tuesday.  An upper level trough that was southeast of Madagascar was producing northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Horacio’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear caused Tropical Cyclone Horacio to weaken.

The eye was no longer visible on satellite images of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands revolving around the center of Horacio’s circulation.  However, those thunderstorms were not rising as high into the atmosphere.  Thunderstorms near the center of Horacio generated less upper level divergence.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Tuesday.

Even though Tropical Cyclone Horacio was weakening, the distribution of wind speeds was still fairly symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Horacio’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Horacio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  The upper level trough that is southeast of Madagascar will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.   Tropical Cyclone Horacio will continue to weaken on Wednesday because of the moderate vertical wind shear.

The upper level trough that is southeast of Madagascar will steer Tropical Cyclone Horacio toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Horacio will continue to move farther away from Rodrigues.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Horacio rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5  hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved over the South Indian Ocean southeast of Rodrigues on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio was located at latitude 21.2°S and longitude 65.0°E which put the center about 145 miles (235 km) southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Horacio was moving toward the southwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) ‘and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (3150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 920 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on Sunday night.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Horacio’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Horacio generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Horacio increased as Horacio rapidly intensified.   Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Horacio’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Horacio was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 51.7. Tropical Cyclone Horacio was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move through an environment that will become less favorable for an intense tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Horacio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the eastern part of an upper level trough that is southeast of Madagascar.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds are that will blow toward the top of Horacio’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the will  vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Horacio toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Horacio will continue to move farther away from Rodrigues.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Horacio rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane as it moved over the South Indian Ocean east of Rodrigues on Sunday night.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio was located at latitude 19.8°S and longitude 65.8°E which put the center about 160 miles (260 km) east of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Horacio was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) ‘and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Sunday night.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Horacio’s circulation.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Horacio’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Horacio generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Horacio was relatively symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Horacio’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Horacio was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.8.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Horacio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio will intensify during the next 24 hours. Horacio could continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Horacio toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Horacio will start to move farther away from Rodrigues.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio Moves Toward Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Horacio moved over the South Indian Ocean toward Rodrigues on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio was located at latitude 18.1°S and longitude 67.8°E which put the center about 320 miles (515 km) east-northeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Horacio was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio strengthened on Sunday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of Horatio’s circulation.  More thunderstorms formed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  Storms near the center of Horacio generated upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Horacio became more symmetrical when Horacio strengthened on Sunday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Horacio’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Horacio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Horacio’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio will intensify during the next 24 hours. Horacio could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Horacio toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Horacio will pass east of Rodrigues in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio Passes South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Horacio passed south of Diego Garcia as it moved over the South Indian Ocean on Saturday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio was located at latitude 17.0°S and longitude 71.3°E which put the center about 675 miles (1095 km) south of Diego Garcia.  Horacio was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio struggled to intensify on Saturday.  Horatio was under the northern side of an upper level ridge that was over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge produced easterly winds that blew toward the top of Horacio’s circulation.  Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear inhibited intensification.

The easterly winds in the upper levels and the vertical wind shear also affected the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western and northern parts of Horacio’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern and southern sides of Tropical Cyclone Horacio consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The vertical wind shear also affected the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the southern half of Horacio’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Horacio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Horacio’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but it may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. Horacio is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move around the northern part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Horatio toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move closer to Rodrigues.  Horacio could approach Rodrigues in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio Develops South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Horacio developed over the South Indian Ocean south of Diego Garcia on Thursday night.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio was located at latitude 15.5°S and longitude 75.3°E which put the center about 610 miles (985 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Horacio was moving toward the south-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean south of Diego Garcia strengthened on Thursday night and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Horacio.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Horacio was organizing quickly on Friday morning.  Thunderstorms were forming near the center of Horatio’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also developing in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  Storms near the center of Horacio generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Horacio was fairly large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Horacio’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Horacio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Horacio’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Horacio is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move toward the northern part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Horacio toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move toward Rodrigues.  Horacio could approach Rodrigues in three days.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai Passes Southeast of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was passing southeast of Rodrigues on Sunday evening.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 21.3°S and longitude 62.2°E which put the center about 130 miles (210 km) east-southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Dudzai was moving toward the west-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

The intensity of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai did not change much on Sunday.  Even though Dudzai’s intensity did not change a lot, its structure began to show signs of the start of a transition to an extratropical cyclone.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai moved over slightly cooler water on Sunday.  Since the slightly cooler water contained less energy, thunderstorms in Dudzai did not rise as high into the atmosphere.  There were also fewer thunderstorms near the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Some bands of showers and thunderstorms were still revolving around the center of Dudzai’s circulation.

The distribution of wind winds speeds in Tropical Cyclone Dudzai continued to be very asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 165 miles (265 km) in the southern half of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.

Tropical Cyclone Duzai will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the eastern part of an upper level low that is southeast of Mauritius and La Reunion.  The upper level low will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dudzai’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear and cooler Sea Surface Temperatures will cause Tropical Cyclone Dudzai to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next couple of days.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, ropical Cyclone Dudzai will move away from Rodrigues on Monday.  Dudzai will pass southeast of Mauritius and La Reunion early this week.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai Approaches Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was approaching Rodrigues on Saturday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 19.2°S and longitude 66.1°E which put the center about 210 miles (335 km) east-northeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Dudzai was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai continued to weaken on Saturday, although Dudzai’s intensity appeared to have stabilized on Saturday evening.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were still revolving around the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Dudzai generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and east of the tropical cyclone.  However, the removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere for much of Saturday.  So, the surface pressure continued to increase on Saturday.  The removal of mass seemed to be moving back into equilibrium with the convergence of mass in the lower levels on Saturday evening.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Dudzai continued to be asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (300 km) in the southern half of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.

Tropical Cyclone Duzai will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Dudzai’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai could intensify a little on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the west-southwest on during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will pass near Rodrigues in 18 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Rodrigues.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai Churns Westward

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai continued to churn westward over the South Indian Ocean on Friday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 17.6°S and longitude 68.8°E which put the center about 750 miles (1210 km) south-southwest of Diego Garcia.  Dudzai was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai weakened as it churned westward over the South Indian Ocean on Friday.  An eye was no longer visible on satellite imagery of Dudzai on Friday evening.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were still revolving around the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Dudzai generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  However, the removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Friday.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dudzai increased on Friday even though Dudzai was weakening.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 75 miles (120 km) in the southwestern quadrant of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the other quadrants of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (250 km) in the southern half of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HHI) for Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was 17.8,  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.8.

Tropical Cyclone Duzai will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level rdige that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dudzai’s circulation.  Those winds will cause vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will continue to weaken on Saturday because of the vertical wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the west-southwest on during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will approach Rodrigues in 36 hours.