Tag Archives: Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Chenge Moves Away From Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Chenge moved away from Diego Garcia on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chenge was located at latitude 8.7°S and longitude 67.9°E which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) west-southwest of Diego Garcia.  Chenge was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge strengthened a little on Sunday as it moved away from Diego Garcia.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of Chege’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Chenge.  Storms near the center of Chenge generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Chenge was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 235 miles (380 km) in the southern half of Chenge’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Chenge.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Chenge will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Chenge’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Chenge could continue to intensify on Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chenge toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chenge will pass north of Rodrigues in a couple of days.

Tropical Cyclone Jude Nears Southern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Jude was nearing southern Madagascar on Friday morning.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 23.3°S and longitude 42.1°E which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) west of Toliara, Madagascar.  Jude was moving toward the east-southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude was intensifying gradually as it neared the coast of southern Madagascar on Friday morning.  Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Jude’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.  Storms near the center of Jude’s circulation pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude remained relatively the same.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Jude’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Jude will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean near Madagascar.  The upper level ridge will produce west-northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jude’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Jude could intensify a little more during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean . The high pressure system will steer Jude toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude will reach the coast of southern Madagascar just to the south of Toliara in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will be the equivalent of a tropical storm when it reaches the southern coast of Madagascar.  Jude will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Jude could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) on the west coast of Madagascar.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ivone made a transition to an extratropical cyclone south-southeast of Rodrigues.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ivone was located at latitude 25.1°S and longitude 65.6°E which put the center about 395 miles (640 km) south-southeast of Rodrigues.  Ivone was moving toward the west-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude Moves Back over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Jude moved back over the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 19.9°S and longitude 37.8°E which put the center about 450 miles (725 km) west-northwest of Toliara, Madagascar.  Jude was moving toward the southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (60 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude began to intensify after the center of its circulation moved back over the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday night.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Jude’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in the bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.  Storms near the center of Jude generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Jude will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.   It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Jude will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Jude toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jude will move toward southern Madagascar.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jude could reach the southern coast of Madagascar near Toliara in 36 hours.  Jude will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Jude could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) on the west coast of Madagascar.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ivone wes weakening east-southeast of Rodrigues.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ivone was located at latitude 22.5°S and longitude 68.0°E which put the center about 360 miles (580 km) east-southeast of Rodrigues.  Ivone was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Low Strengthens to Tropical Cyclone Zelia

A former Tropical Low near the coast of Western Australia strengthened to Tropical Cyclone Zelia on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Zelia was located at latitude 18.7°S and longitude 118.9°E which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) north of Port Hedland, Australia.  Zelia was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A former Tropical Low near the coast of Western Australia strengthened on Tuesday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Zelia.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Zelia’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Zelia.  Storms near the center of Zelia generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Zelia became more symmetrical on Tuesday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 145 miles (230 km) from the center of Zelia’s circulation.

A weather station on Rowley Shoals measured a sustained wind speed of 47 kt (54 m.p.h. or 87 km/h) and a wind gust of 64 kt (74 m.p.h. or 119 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Zelia will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Zelia will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle part of an upper level ridge that extends from Australia to the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Zelia will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Zelia is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Zelia will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Zelia slowly toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone will move closer to the coast of Western Australia.  Zelia could approach the coast between Wallal Downs and Port Hedland in 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Zelia will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Western Australia.

A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Broome to Port Hedland.  The Warning includes Wallal Downs and De Grey.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Port Hedland to Dampier.  The Watch extends inland to Marble Bar.

Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for the De Grey River, the Pilbara coastal Rivers, the Fortescue River and parts of the Sandy Desert.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vince continued to move farther away from Rodrigues and Tropical Cyclone Taliah continued to move farther away from the Cocos Islands.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince was located at latitude 29.5°S and longitude 70.3°E which put the center about 805 miles (1295 km) south-southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Vince was moving toward the south-southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). vThe minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah was located at latitude 16.4°S and longitude 91.5°E which put the center about 435 miles (705 km) southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Taliah was moving toward the south-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Tropical Low Develops Near Western Australia

A Tropical Low developed near the coast of Western Australia on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 15.7°S and longitude 120.9°E which put the center about 180 miles (290 km) north-northwest of Broome, Australia.  The Tropical Low was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around a Tropical Low near the coast of Western Australia exhibited more organization on Monday.  Thunderstorms organized in bands in the southern and western parts of the Tropical Low.  Bands in the northern and eastern parts of the circulation still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that started to pump mass away from the Tropical Low.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The Tropical Low will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the Tropical Low’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  The Tropical Low is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

The Tropical Low will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours.  The Tropical Low will move more toward the south later this week.  On its anticipated track, the Tropical Low will move toward the coast of Western Australia.

The Tropical Low is likely to intensify to a tropical cyclone before it reaches the coast of Western Australia.  It will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Western Australia later this week.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Leveque to Port Hedland.  The Watch includes Broome, Wallal Downs, and De Grey.

A Flood Watch is in effect for the De Grey River and parts of the Sandy Desert catchments.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vince moved farther away from Rodrigues and Tropical Cyclone Taliah moved farther away from the Cocos Islands.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince was located at latitude 25.4°S and longitude 68.6°E which put the center about 515 miles (835 km) southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Vince was moving toward the south at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah was located at latitude 14.2°S and longitude 92.2°E which put the center about 330 miles (530 km) west-southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Taliah was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vince Moves Away From Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Vince moved farther away from Rodrigues on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince was located at latitude 21.9°S and longitude 69.1°E which put the center about 410 miles (660 km) east-southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Vince was moving toward the south-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vince continued to gradually weaken as it moved away from Rodrigues on Sunday.  Even though Vince was weakening, the circulation around the tropical cyclone remained well organized.  A circular eye with a diameter of 45 miles (73 km) was at the center of Vince’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Tropical Cyclone Vince.  Storms near the core of Vince generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The divergence of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased gradually.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Vince was still very well organized.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Vince’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Vince is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 19.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 41.3.  Tropical Cyclone Vince is similar in intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005.  Vince is much larger than Dennis was.

.Tropical Cyclone Vince will move through an environment that will become even less favorable for an intense tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Vince will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough southeast of Madagascar.  The upper level tough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Vince’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  More vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Vince to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Vince will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Vince toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vince will continue to move farther away from Rodrigues.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Taliah continued to weaken southwest of the Cocos Islands.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah was located at latitude 14.8°S and longitude 93.2°E which put the center about 410 miles (660 km) southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Taliah was moving toward the west at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vince Spins East of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Vince continued to spin over the South Indian Ocean east of Rodrigues on Saturday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince was located at latitude 20.6°S and longitude 71.2°E which put the center about 525 miles (850 km) east of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Vince was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vince weakened gradually as it continued to spin over the South Indian Ocean east of Rodrigues.  A circular eye with a diameter of 40 miles (65 km) was at the center of Vince’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Tropical Cyclone Vince.  Storms near the core of Vince generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The divergence of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased gradually.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Vince was still very well organized.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Vince’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Vince.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles in the northern side of Vince’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Vince is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 37.7.  Tropical Cyclone Vince is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017

.Tropical Cyclone Vince will move through an environment that will become less favorable for an intense tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Vince will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Vince’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. More vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Vince to continue to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Vince will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Vince toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vince will move closer to Rodrigues.  Vince is likely to start to move toward the south when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system on Monday.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Taliah was moving farther away from the Cocos Islands.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah was located at latitude 15.6°S and longitude 94.4°E which put the center about 285 miles (455 km) south of the Cocos Islands.  Taliah was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Vince Passes South of Diego Garcia

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Vince was passing far to the south of Diego Garcia on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince was located at latitude 20.1°S and longitude 75.3°E which put the center about 925 miles (1495 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Vince was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 932 mb.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Vince maintained its intensity as it passed far to the south of Diego Garcia on Friday.  A circular eye with a diameters of 23 miles (37 km) was at the center of Vince’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Storms near the center of Vince generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The divergence of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere was almost balanced by the inflow of mass in the lower levels.  The effect of the near balance of divergence and inflow was to keep the surface pressure nearly steady.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Vince was very symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Vince’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Vince is 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 15.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 47.2.  Tropical Cyclone Vince is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ida when Ida hit Louisiana in 2021

.Tropical Cyclone Vince will move through an environment favorable for an intense tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Vince will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Vince’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Vince is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours, unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.

Tropical Cyclone Vince will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Vince toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vince will move toward Rodrigues.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Taliah was passing south of the Cocos Islands.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 96.4°E which put the center about 250 miles (400 km) south of the Cocos Islands.  Taliah was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki To Bring Wind and Rain to Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will bring wind and rain to Rodrigues in the South Indian Ocean.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki was located at latitude 18.4°S and longitude 64.4°E which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) northeast of Rodrigues.  Bheki was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki weakened gradually on Tuesday as it approached Rodrigues.  The effects of vertical wind shear and drier air started to affect the structure of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern side of Bheki’s circulation.  Bands in the western part of Tropical Cyclone Bheki consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Bheki generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone.

The effects of the vertical wind shear also affected the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Bheki’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the southern side of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the northern side of Bheki’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will continue to move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bheki will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough near Madagascar.  The upper level level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bheki’s circulation.  Those upper level winds will cause the moderate vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Bheki will continue to weaken during the next 24 hours because of the moderate vertical wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bheki toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center Tropical Cyclone Bheki will pass just to the north of Rodrigues during the next 12 hours.  Bheki could be near Mauritius in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Rodrigues. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki Weakens Over South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Bheki weakened over the South Indian Ocean on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki was located at latitude 17.7°S and longitude 68.1°E which put the center about 345 miles (555 km) east-northeast of Rodrigues.  Bheki was moving toward the west-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

More vertical wind shear caused Tropical Cyclone Bheki to weaken on Monday as it moved over the South Indian Ocean.  It was no longer possible to detect an eye on satellite images of Bheki.  Thunderstorms were still occurring around the center of Bheki’s circulation.  Those thunderstorms generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.

There was still a large area of strong winds in Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Bheki’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Bheki was 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size INdex (HWISI) was 31.9.  Tropical Cyclone Bheki was similar in intensity to Hurricane Matthew when Matthew hit North Carolina  in 2016.  Bheki was bigger than Matthew was.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will continue to move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bheki will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bheki’s circulation.  Those upper level winds will cause the moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Bheki will weaken during the next 24 hours because of the moderate vertical wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bheki toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center Tropical Cyclone Bheki will approach Rodrigues in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Rodrigues.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.