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Tropical Cyclone Horacio Continues to Weaken

Tropical Cyclone Horacio continued to weaken as it moved over the South Indian Ocean on Wednesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio was located at latitude 30.9°S and longitude 68.1°E which put the center about 815 miles (1315 km) south-southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Horacio was moving toward the south-southeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

An upper level trough that was southeast of Madagascar was producing strong northwesterly winds that were blowing across the top of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong northwesterly winds were also blowing the top half of Horacio’s circulation to the southeast of the low level center of Horacio.  The strong winds blew the tops off of thunderstorms near the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  Bands near the center and in the northwestern half of Horacio’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  There will some thunderstorms in the southeastern part of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.

The distribution of wind speeds near the surface in Tropical Cyclone Horacio were still relatively symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Horacio’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will continue to move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Horacio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 23°C.  The upper level trough that is southeast of Madagascar will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio will continue to weaken during the next 24 hours because of the colder water and the strong vertical wind shear.

Since strong vertical wind shear is blowing the top off of Tropical Cyclone Horacio, Horacio will be steered by weather systems in the lower atmosphere.  Horacio will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Horacio toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Horacio will continue to move farther away from Rodrigues.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio Weakens

Tropical Cyclone Horacio weakened on Tuesday as it moved over the South Indian Ocean.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio was located at latitude 25.6°S and longitude 65.2°E which put the center about 415 miles (665 km) south-southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Horacio was moving toward the south-southeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio weakened on Tuesday.  An upper level trough that was southeast of Madagascar was producing northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Horacio’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear caused Tropical Cyclone Horacio to weaken.

The eye was no longer visible on satellite images of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands revolving around the center of Horacio’s circulation.  However, those thunderstorms were not rising as high into the atmosphere.  Thunderstorms near the center of Horacio generated less upper level divergence.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Tuesday.

Even though Tropical Cyclone Horacio was weakening, the distribution of wind speeds was still fairly symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Horacio’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Horacio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  The upper level trough that is southeast of Madagascar will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.   Tropical Cyclone Horacio will continue to weaken on Wednesday because of the moderate vertical wind shear.

The upper level trough that is southeast of Madagascar will steer Tropical Cyclone Horacio toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Horacio will continue to move farther away from Rodrigues.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Horacio rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5  hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved over the South Indian Ocean southeast of Rodrigues on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio was located at latitude 21.2°S and longitude 65.0°E which put the center about 145 miles (235 km) southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Horacio was moving toward the southwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) ‘and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (3150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 920 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on Sunday night.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Horacio’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Horacio generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Horacio increased as Horacio rapidly intensified.   Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Horacio’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Horacio was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 51.7. Tropical Cyclone Horacio was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move through an environment that will become less favorable for an intense tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Horacio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the eastern part of an upper level trough that is southeast of Madagascar.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds are that will blow toward the top of Horacio’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the will  vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Horacio toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Horacio will continue to move farther away from Rodrigues.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Horacio rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane as it moved over the South Indian Ocean east of Rodrigues on Sunday night.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio was located at latitude 19.8°S and longitude 65.8°E which put the center about 160 miles (260 km) east of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Horacio was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) ‘and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Sunday night.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Horacio’s circulation.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Horacio’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Horacio generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Horacio was relatively symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Horacio’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Horacio was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.8.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Horacio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio will intensify during the next 24 hours. Horacio could continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Horacio toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Horacio will start to move farther away from Rodrigues.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio Moves Toward Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Horacio moved over the South Indian Ocean toward Rodrigues on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio was located at latitude 18.1°S and longitude 67.8°E which put the center about 320 miles (515 km) east-northeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Horacio was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio strengthened on Sunday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of Horatio’s circulation.  More thunderstorms formed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  Storms near the center of Horacio generated upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Horacio became more symmetrical when Horacio strengthened on Sunday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Horacio’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Horacio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Horacio’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio will intensify during the next 24 hours. Horacio could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Horacio toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Horacio will pass east of Rodrigues in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai Passes Southeast of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was passing southeast of Rodrigues on Sunday evening.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 21.3°S and longitude 62.2°E which put the center about 130 miles (210 km) east-southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Dudzai was moving toward the west-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

The intensity of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai did not change much on Sunday.  Even though Dudzai’s intensity did not change a lot, its structure began to show signs of the start of a transition to an extratropical cyclone.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai moved over slightly cooler water on Sunday.  Since the slightly cooler water contained less energy, thunderstorms in Dudzai did not rise as high into the atmosphere.  There were also fewer thunderstorms near the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Some bands of showers and thunderstorms were still revolving around the center of Dudzai’s circulation.

The distribution of wind winds speeds in Tropical Cyclone Dudzai continued to be very asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 165 miles (265 km) in the southern half of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.

Tropical Cyclone Duzai will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the eastern part of an upper level low that is southeast of Mauritius and La Reunion.  The upper level low will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dudzai’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear and cooler Sea Surface Temperatures will cause Tropical Cyclone Dudzai to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next couple of days.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, ropical Cyclone Dudzai will move away from Rodrigues on Monday.  Dudzai will pass southeast of Mauritius and La Reunion early this week.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai Approaches Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was approaching Rodrigues on Saturday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 19.2°S and longitude 66.1°E which put the center about 210 miles (335 km) east-northeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Dudzai was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai continued to weaken on Saturday, although Dudzai’s intensity appeared to have stabilized on Saturday evening.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were still revolving around the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Dudzai generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and east of the tropical cyclone.  However, the removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere for much of Saturday.  So, the surface pressure continued to increase on Saturday.  The removal of mass seemed to be moving back into equilibrium with the convergence of mass in the lower levels on Saturday evening.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Dudzai continued to be asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (300 km) in the southern half of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.

Tropical Cyclone Duzai will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Dudzai’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai could intensify a little on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the west-southwest on during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will pass near Rodrigues in 18 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Rodrigues.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Low Strengthens to Tropical Cyclone Zelia

A former Tropical Low near the coast of Western Australia strengthened to Tropical Cyclone Zelia on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Zelia was located at latitude 18.7°S and longitude 118.9°E which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) north of Port Hedland, Australia.  Zelia was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A former Tropical Low near the coast of Western Australia strengthened on Tuesday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Zelia.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Zelia’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Zelia.  Storms near the center of Zelia generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Zelia became more symmetrical on Tuesday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 145 miles (230 km) from the center of Zelia’s circulation.

A weather station on Rowley Shoals measured a sustained wind speed of 47 kt (54 m.p.h. or 87 km/h) and a wind gust of 64 kt (74 m.p.h. or 119 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Zelia will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Zelia will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle part of an upper level ridge that extends from Australia to the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Zelia will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Zelia is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Zelia will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Zelia slowly toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone will move closer to the coast of Western Australia.  Zelia could approach the coast between Wallal Downs and Port Hedland in 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Zelia will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Western Australia.

A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Broome to Port Hedland.  The Warning includes Wallal Downs and De Grey.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Port Hedland to Dampier.  The Watch extends inland to Marble Bar.

Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for the De Grey River, the Pilbara coastal Rivers, the Fortescue River and parts of the Sandy Desert.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vince continued to move farther away from Rodrigues and Tropical Cyclone Taliah continued to move farther away from the Cocos Islands.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince was located at latitude 29.5°S and longitude 70.3°E which put the center about 805 miles (1295 km) south-southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Vince was moving toward the south-southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). vThe minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah was located at latitude 16.4°S and longitude 91.5°E which put the center about 435 miles (705 km) southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Taliah was moving toward the south-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Tropical Low Develops Near Western Australia

A Tropical Low developed near the coast of Western Australia on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 15.7°S and longitude 120.9°E which put the center about 180 miles (290 km) north-northwest of Broome, Australia.  The Tropical Low was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around a Tropical Low near the coast of Western Australia exhibited more organization on Monday.  Thunderstorms organized in bands in the southern and western parts of the Tropical Low.  Bands in the northern and eastern parts of the circulation still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that started to pump mass away from the Tropical Low.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The Tropical Low will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the Tropical Low’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  The Tropical Low is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

The Tropical Low will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours.  The Tropical Low will move more toward the south later this week.  On its anticipated track, the Tropical Low will move toward the coast of Western Australia.

The Tropical Low is likely to intensify to a tropical cyclone before it reaches the coast of Western Australia.  It will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Western Australia later this week.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Leveque to Port Hedland.  The Watch includes Broome, Wallal Downs, and De Grey.

A Flood Watch is in effect for the De Grey River and parts of the Sandy Desert catchments.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vince moved farther away from Rodrigues and Tropical Cyclone Taliah moved farther away from the Cocos Islands.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince was located at latitude 25.4°S and longitude 68.6°E which put the center about 515 miles (835 km) southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Vince was moving toward the south at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah was located at latitude 14.2°S and longitude 92.2°E which put the center about 330 miles (530 km) west-southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Taliah was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vince Moves Away From Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Vince moved farther away from Rodrigues on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince was located at latitude 21.9°S and longitude 69.1°E which put the center about 410 miles (660 km) east-southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Vince was moving toward the south-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vince continued to gradually weaken as it moved away from Rodrigues on Sunday.  Even though Vince was weakening, the circulation around the tropical cyclone remained well organized.  A circular eye with a diameter of 45 miles (73 km) was at the center of Vince’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Tropical Cyclone Vince.  Storms near the core of Vince generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The divergence of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased gradually.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Vince was still very well organized.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Vince’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Vince is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 19.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 41.3.  Tropical Cyclone Vince is similar in intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005.  Vince is much larger than Dennis was.

.Tropical Cyclone Vince will move through an environment that will become even less favorable for an intense tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Vince will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough southeast of Madagascar.  The upper level tough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Vince’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  More vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Vince to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Vince will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Vince toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vince will continue to move farther away from Rodrigues.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Taliah continued to weaken southwest of the Cocos Islands.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah was located at latitude 14.8°S and longitude 93.2°E which put the center about 410 miles (660 km) southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Taliah was moving toward the west at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.