Tropical Cyclone Vince continued to spin over the South Indian Ocean east of Rodrigues on Saturday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince was located at latitude 20.6°S and longitude 71.2°E which put the center about 525 miles (850 km) east of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Vince was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vince weakened gradually as it continued to spin over the South Indian Ocean east of Rodrigues.  A circular eye with a diameter of 40 miles (65 km) was at the center of Vince’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Tropical Cyclone Vince.  Storms near the core of Vince generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The divergence of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased gradually.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Vince was still very well organized.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Vince’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Vince.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles in the northern side of Vince’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Vince is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 37.7.  Tropical Cyclone Vince is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017

.Tropical Cyclone Vince will move through an environment that will become less favorable for an intense tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Vince will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Vince’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. More vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Vince to continue to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Vince will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Vince toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vince will move closer to Rodrigues.  Vince is likely to start to move toward the south when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system on Monday.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Taliah was moving farther away from the Cocos Islands.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah was located at latitude 15.6°S and longitude 94.4°E which put the center about 285 miles (455 km) south of the Cocos Islands.  Taliah was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.