Monthly Archives: March 2026

Tropical Cyclone 24P Forms over the Coral Sea

Leave a reply

Tropical Cyclone 24P formed over the Coral Sea on Tuesday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 24P was located at latitude 14.3°S and longitude 150.6°E which put the center about 380 miles (615 km) east-northeast of Cairns, Australia.  Tropical Cyclone 24P was moving toward the south-southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Watch for the portion of the coast from Cooktown to Lucinda.  The Watch included Port Douglas, Cairns, Innisfail and Palm Island.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea strengthened on Tuesday night and the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center designated the system as Tropical Cyclone 24P.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology was designating the system as Tropical Low 29U.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone 24P was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the tropical cyclone’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Tropical Cyclone 24P began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone 24P.

Tropical Cyclone 24P will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that extended from the Coral Sea to over Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone 24P will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 24 P will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Coral Sea.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone 24P will approach the coast of Queensland near Cairns in two days.

Tropical Cyclone 24P will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of Queensland near Cairns.  Heavy rain could cause flooding in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for the parts of the Cape York Peninsula, the Central Coast, Capricornia, and Carpentaria catchments.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil Passes South of Fiji

Leave a reply

Tropical Cyclone Urmil passed south of Fiji on Saturday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Urmil was located at latitude 26.7°S and longitude 179.5°W which put the center about 525 miles (850 km) south of Siva, Fiji.  Urmil was moving toward the southeast at 28 m.p.h. (45 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil was making a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Sunday morning.  An upper level trough that was northwest of New Zealand was producing strong northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Urmil’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong upper level winds were also blowing the top half of Urmil’s circulation to the southeast of the circulation in the lower levels of the atmosphere.

Bands near the center and in the northern and western parts of Tropical Cyclone Urmil consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Some thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Urmil’s circulation.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Urmil increased as Urmil made the transition to an extratropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center of Urmil’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Urmil will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  The upper level trough that was northwest of New Zealand will continue to produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Urmil’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  The strong wind shear will also Tropical Cyclone Urmil to complete a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough northwest of New Zealand will steer Tropical Cyclone Urmil toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Urmil will pass far to the south of Tonga.