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Tropical Cyclone Narelle Brings Wind and Rain to Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Narelle brought wind and rain to Western Australia on Friday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 26.5°S and longitude 114.8°E which put the center about 85 miles (135 km) east-southeast of Denham, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the south-southeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning that is in effect for the portion of the coast from Carnarvon to Jurien Bay.  The Warning includes  Denham and Geraldton.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle continued to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain on Friday as it moved farther inland over Western Australia.  Narelle was weakening gradually as it moved farther inland.

A weather station in Learmonth, Australia measured a sustained wind speed of 86 m.p.h. (139 km/h) and a wind gust of 120 m.p.h. (193 km/h).  The weather station also measured 13.58 inches (345 mm) of rain.  The weather radar in Learmonth was unavailable because of damage caused by Tropical Cyclone Narelle.

A weather station in Carnarvon, Australia measured a sustained wind speed of 52 m.p.h. (84 km/h) and a wind gust of 70 m.p.h. (113 km/h).

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Narelle was still large.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the eastern part of an upper level trough that is southwest of Australia.  The upper level trough will steer Narelle toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will continue to inland over Western Australia.  The center of Narelle’s circulation will pass eastnof Perth in 12 to 18 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Western Australia.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for western parts of the Pilbara, Gascoyne, Central Coastal, and Lower West Coast catchments.

A Minor Flood Warning is in effect for the Gascoyne River.

 

Tropical Cyclone Narelle Hits Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Narelle hit Western Australia west of Exmouth on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 23.2°S and longitude 113.7°E which put the center about 18 miles (130 km) south-southwest of Exmouth, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the south-southwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning that is in effect for the portion of the coast from Onslow to Jurien Bay.  The Warning includes Exmouth, Coral Bay, Carnarvon, Denham, and Geraldton.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle was the equivalent of a major hurricane when it made landfall on the coast of Western Australia.  Narelle may have been in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle at the time of landfall.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Narelle was large.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (285 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Narelle was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 28.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 48.9.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Rita when Rita hit Southwest Louisiana in 2005.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northeastern part of an upper level trough that is southwest of Australia.  The upper level trough will steer Narelle toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move along the coast of Western Australia.  The center of Narelle’s circulation will pass near Carnarvon in 12 hours.  The center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle will be near Morawa in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Western Australia.  Narelle will be capable of causing major damage.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for western parts of the Pilbara, Gascoyne, Central Coastal, and Lower West Coast catchments.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along parts of the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Narelle rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 18.6°S and longitude 116.8°E which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) north of Karratha, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning that is in effect for the portion of the coast from Pardoo Roadhouse to Cape Cuvier.  The Warning includes Port Hedland, Karratha, Onslow, Exmouth, and Coral Bay.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Cuvier to Dongara.  The Watch includes Carnarvon, Denham, and Geraldton.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Wednesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Narelle’s circulation.  A large circular eye with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Narelle generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Narelle increased significantly on Wednesday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Narelle was 22.1  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 24.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 46.8.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Jeanne when Jeanne hit southern Florida in 2004.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Narelle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that is over Western Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Narelle’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will approach the coast of Western Australia near Exmouth in 24 hours.  Narelle will move toward the south on Friday when it moves around the western end of the high pressure system.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the coast of Western Australia.  Narelle will be capable of causing major damage.  Heavy is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for western parts of the Pilbara, Gascoyne, Central Coastal, and Lower West Coast catchments.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along parts of the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell Moves Over Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell moved over the coast of Western Australia south of Carnarvon on Monday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell was located at latitude 25.8°S and longitude 114.2°E which put the center about 70 miles (110 km) south-southeast of Carnarvon, Australia.  Mitchell was moving toward the south-southeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning that was in effect for the portion of the coast from Carnarvon to Overlander Roadhouse.  The Warning included Denham.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell was the equivalent of a tropical storm at the time it moved over the coast of Western Australia.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Mitchell’s circulation.

A weather station in Carnarvon, Australia measured a sustained wind speed of 43 m.p.h. (69 km/h) and a wind gust of 63 m.p.h. (102 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Mitchell toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Mitchell will move inland over Western Australia.  The center of Mitchell’s circulation will pass east of Denham.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the area between Denham and Overlander Roadhouse during the next few hours.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for the Gascoyne River, the Avon River, the Moore River, the Hill River, the Greenough River, the Murchison River, the Wooramel River, the Linden-Minilya Rivers, and the Yarra Yarra Lakes District.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell Passes Near Exmouth

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell was passing near Exmouth in Western Australia on Sunday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell was located at latitude 22.0°S and longitude 113.8°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) north-northwest of Exmouth, Australia.  Mitchell was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning that was in effect for the portion of the coast from Onslow to Overlander Roadhouse.  The Warning included Exmouth, Carnarvon, and Denham.  The Warning extended inland to include Gascoyne Junction.

Even though the center of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell remained offshore, Mitchell was producing strong winds along the coast of Western Australia.  A weather station at the Onslow airport measured a sustained wind speed of 59 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and a wind gust of 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell weakened on Saturday night even though the center of Mitchell remained over water.  Southeasterly winds blowing into the southwestern part of Mitchell’s circulation appeared to pull drier air from the interior of Western Australia into the western side of the circulation.  The drier air caused many of the thunderstorms in the southwestern part of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell to weaken.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the other parts of Mitchell’s circulation.  Since there were fewer thunderstorms near the center of Mitchell, those thunderstorms generated less upper level divergence.  Less upper level divergence meant that the thunderstorms pumped less mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of less mass caused the surface pressure to increase.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Mitchell continued to be small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Mitchell’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Mitchell will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However, it will move under the western end of an upper level ridge that is over Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Mitchell’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  In addition, Tropical Cyclone Mitchell is likely to continue to pull drier air into its circulation.  The combination of more vertical wind shear and drier air will cause Tropical Cyclone Mitchell to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Mitchell toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell will make landfall on the coast of Western Australia near Cape Cuvier and Carnarvon in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell will bring strong winds and heavy rain parts of Western Australia near Cape Cuvier and Carnarvon.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for the Gascoyne River, the Ashburton River, the Fortescue River, the Greenough River, the Murchison River, the Wooramel River, the Pilbara Coastal Rivers, and the Yarra Yarra Lakes District.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja Turns Toward Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Seroja turned toward the coast of Western Australia on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja was located at latitude 23.2°S and longitude 110.2°E which put it about 435 miles (700 km) northwest of Kalbarri, Australia. Seroja was moving toward the southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect from Minilya Roadhouse to Lancelin, Australia. The Warning included Cape Cuvier, Carnavon, Denham, Kalbarri, Jurien Bay and Lancelin.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon after it turned toward the coast of Western Australia on Saturday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Seroja and microwave satellite images showed evidence of the formation of an eye. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Seroja. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Seroja generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Seroja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Seroja. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will limit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone Seroja could get a little stronger during the next 12 hours. Seroja will begin to weaken when it moves over Western Australia.

The upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will steer Tropical Cyclone Seroja toward the southeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja will pass just to the west of Denham during the next 12 hours. Seroja make landfall on the coast of Western Australia near Kalbarri in 15 hours. Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move across the southwestern part of Western Australia after it makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will bring produce winds to hurricane/typhoon force to the portion of the coast near Kalbarri. Winds to tropical storm force could occur along the portion of the coast from Denham to Geraldton. Wind blowing water toward the coast could cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) near where the center makes landfall. Tropical Cyclone Seroja will drop locally heavy rain over parts of Western Australia. Flood Watches have been issued for the Wooramel, Murchison, Greenough, Yarra Yarra Lakes, Avon River and parts of the Salt Lake Catchments.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja Prompts Watch for Western Australia

A potential threat posed by Tropical Cyclone Seroja prompted the issuance of a Watch for the coast of Western Australia. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja was located at latitude 19.2°S and longitude 109.8°E which put it about 315 miles (505 km) northwest of Exmouth, Australia. Seroja was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Watch was issued for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Coral Bay to Lancelin. The Watch included Carnarvon, Denham, Kalbarri and Geraldton.

More thunderstorms developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja on Thursday night. The distribution of thunderstorms was more symmetrical, which indicated that the vertical wind shear was decreasing. Thunderstorms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Seroja.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Seroja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge centered northwest of Australia during the next 24 hours. The upper level winds are weaker near the axis of the ridge and the wind shear will decrease. Tropical Cyclone Seroja could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours. Seroja could strengthen more rapidly if the inner end of a rainband wraps around the center and an inner core forms.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia during the next day or so. The high will steer Seroja toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Tropical Cyclone Seroja from the west during the weekend. The trough will turn Seroja toward the southeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Seroja will make landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Denham and Lancelin in 60 hours.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Odette was interacting with the northwest side of Tropical Cyclone Seroja. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Odette was located at latitude 14.5°S and longitude 108.2°E which put it about 675 miles (1090 km) northwest of Exmouth, Australia. Odette was moving toward the east at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb. Even though the wind speeds are stronger in Tropical Cyclone Odette than they are in Tropical Cyclone Seroja, the circulation around Seroja is larger. The circulation of Odette is forecast to absorbed by the larger circulation of Seroja. In addition, upper level divergence from Seroja will cause vertical wind shear over Odette, which will also cause the circulation around Odette to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja Spins Northwest of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Seroja was spinning northwest of Australia on Wednesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja was located at latitude 16.0°S and longitude 113.4°E which put it about 410 miles (665 km) north of Exmouth, Australia. Seroja was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja was exhibiting signs of intensification on Wednesday night, but it was also still being affected by vertical wind shear. More thunderstorms were beginning to form near the center of circulation. However, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Seroja. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move through an environment more favorable for intensification during the next several days. Seroja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge centered over northwestern Australia during the next 24 hours. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Seroja could intensify gradually during the next 24 hours. Seroja will move closer to the axis of the upper level ridge in a day or so. The winds are weaker near the axis of the ridge and the wind shear will decrease. Tropical Cyclone Seroja could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 36 hours. Seroja could strengthen more rapidly when the vertical wind shear decreases and it is forecast to intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high will steer Seroja toward the southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Seroja will remain northwest of Western Australia during the next two days. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Seroja during the weekend. The trough will turn Tropical Cyclone Seroja toward the southeast and it could approach the coast of Western Australia south of Denham in 72 hours.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone 27S was interacting with the western side of Tropical Cyclone Seroja. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 27S was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 105.9°E which put it about 645 miles (1040 km) northwest of Exmouth, Australia. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the northeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.