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Tropical Cyclone Seroja Brings Wind and Rain to Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Seroja brought wind and rain to Western Australia on Sunday. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja was located at latitude 28.1°S and longitude 114.3°E which put it about 30 miles (45 km) south-southeast of Kalbarri, Australia. Seroja was moving toward the southeast at 26 m.p.h. (43 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect from Overlander Roadhouse to Lancelin. The Warning extended inland to Merredin.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja made landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Kalbarri and Geraldton. Seroja strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon before it made landfall. The airport at Geraldton was reporting sustained winds to 56 m.p.h. (91 km/h) and wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) as the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja approached the station.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move rapidly across the southwestern part of Western Australia during the next 24 hours. Seroja will bring gusty winds and it will drop locally heavy rain over parts of Western Australia. Flood Watches have been issued for the Wooramel, Murchison, Greenough, Yarra Yarra Lakes, Avon River and parts of the Salt Lake Catchments.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja Turns Toward Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Seroja turned toward the coast of Western Australia on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja was located at latitude 23.2°S and longitude 110.2°E which put it about 435 miles (700 km) northwest of Kalbarri, Australia. Seroja was moving toward the southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect from Minilya Roadhouse to Lancelin, Australia. The Warning included Cape Cuvier, Carnavon, Denham, Kalbarri, Jurien Bay and Lancelin.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon after it turned toward the coast of Western Australia on Saturday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Seroja and microwave satellite images showed evidence of the formation of an eye. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Seroja. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Seroja generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Seroja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Seroja. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will limit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone Seroja could get a little stronger during the next 12 hours. Seroja will begin to weaken when it moves over Western Australia.

The upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will steer Tropical Cyclone Seroja toward the southeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja will pass just to the west of Denham during the next 12 hours. Seroja make landfall on the coast of Western Australia near Kalbarri in 15 hours. Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move across the southwestern part of Western Australia after it makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will bring produce winds to hurricane/typhoon force to the portion of the coast near Kalbarri. Winds to tropical storm force could occur along the portion of the coast from Denham to Geraldton. Wind blowing water toward the coast could cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) near where the center makes landfall. Tropical Cyclone Seroja will drop locally heavy rain over parts of Western Australia. Flood Watches have been issued for the Wooramel, Murchison, Greenough, Yarra Yarra Lakes, Avon River and parts of the Salt Lake Catchments.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja Prompts Watch for Western Australia

A potential threat posed by Tropical Cyclone Seroja prompted the issuance of a Watch for the coast of Western Australia. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja was located at latitude 19.2°S and longitude 109.8°E which put it about 315 miles (505 km) northwest of Exmouth, Australia. Seroja was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Watch was issued for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Coral Bay to Lancelin. The Watch included Carnarvon, Denham, Kalbarri and Geraldton.

More thunderstorms developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja on Thursday night. The distribution of thunderstorms was more symmetrical, which indicated that the vertical wind shear was decreasing. Thunderstorms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Seroja.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Seroja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge centered northwest of Australia during the next 24 hours. The upper level winds are weaker near the axis of the ridge and the wind shear will decrease. Tropical Cyclone Seroja could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours. Seroja could strengthen more rapidly if the inner end of a rainband wraps around the center and an inner core forms.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia during the next day or so. The high will steer Seroja toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Tropical Cyclone Seroja from the west during the weekend. The trough will turn Seroja toward the southeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Seroja will make landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Denham and Lancelin in 60 hours.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Odette was interacting with the northwest side of Tropical Cyclone Seroja. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Odette was located at latitude 14.5°S and longitude 108.2°E which put it about 675 miles (1090 km) northwest of Exmouth, Australia. Odette was moving toward the east at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb. Even though the wind speeds are stronger in Tropical Cyclone Odette than they are in Tropical Cyclone Seroja, the circulation around Seroja is larger. The circulation of Odette is forecast to absorbed by the larger circulation of Seroja. In addition, upper level divergence from Seroja will cause vertical wind shear over Odette, which will also cause the circulation around Odette to weaken.