Typhoon In-Fa Moves Toward Northern Marianas

Typhoon In-Fa continued to move toward the Northern Marianas on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon In-Fa was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 153.8°E which put the center about 565 miles (910 km) east of Saipan.  In-Fa was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

Typhoon In-Fa did not change much on Wednesday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 40 miles (65 km) was at the center of In-Fa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon In-Fa.  Storms near the center of In-Fa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure did not change much on Wednesday.

The distribution of wind speeds in Typhoon In-Fa was very symmetrical.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of In-Fa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Typhoon In-Fa.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon In-Fa is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 18.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 43.2.  Typhoon In-Fa is similar in size to Hurricane Ian when Ian hit Southwest Florida in 2022.  In-Fa is not as strong as Ian was.

Typhoon In-Fa will move through an environment that will be favorable for a strong typhoon during the next 24 hours.  In-Fa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon In-Fa appears to be in a near equilibrium with its environment.  In-Fa is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon In-Fa will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer In-Fa toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon In-Fa will approach Alamagan, Pagan, and Agrihan in 24 hours.

Typhoon In-Fa will be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Alamagan, Pagan, and Agrihan.  In-Fa will bring strong winds and heavy rain to those islands.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.

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