Category Archives: Eastern and Central Pacific

TCs between Mexico and Hawaii

Tropical Storm Pena Moves South of Hawaii

Tropical Storm Pena moved south of Hawaii on Sunday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Pena was located at latitude 11.4°N and longitude 157.6°W which put the center about 540 miles (870 km) south-southwest of South Point, Hawaii.  Pena was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Pena weakened on Sunday as it moved south of Hawaii.

Thunderstorms were still occurring near the center of Tropical Storm Pena.  Thunderstorms were also present in bands in the northern and eastern periphery of Pena’s circulation.  Bands in the western and southern parts of Tropical Storm Pena consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Pena generated less upper level divergence that pumped less mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Sunday.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of Tropical Storm Pena.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Pena’s circulation.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Storm Pena were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Pena will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Pena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern part of an upper level trough that is southwest of Hawaii.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Pena’s circulation.  Those upper level winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Pena could intensify a little during the next 24 hours, if the upper level winds do not get any stronger.

Tropical Storm Pena will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Central North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Pena toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Pena will remain far to the south of Hawaii.

Tropical Storm Pena Strengthens

Tropical Storm Pena strengthened as it moved south of Hawaii on Saturday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Pena was located at latitude 11.4°N and longitude 154.5°W which put the center about 530 miles (855 km) south of South Point, Hawaii.  Pena was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Storm Pena strengthened on Saturday.  Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Pena’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Pena.  Bands in the western side of Pena’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Storms near the center of Pena generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Pena was small.  The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Pena’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the northern half of Tropical Storm Pena.  The winds in the southern half of Pena’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Pena will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Pena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is southwest of Hawaii.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Pena’s circulation.  Those upper level winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Pena could intensify slowly during the next 24 hours, if the upper level winds do not get any stronger.

Tropical Storm Pena will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Central North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Pena toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Pena will remain far to the south of Hawaii.

Tropical Storm Pena Forms Southeast of Hawaii

Tropical Storm Pena formed southeast of Hawaii on Friday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Pena was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 150.1°W which put the center about 650 miles (1045 km) southeast of South Point, Hawaii.  Pena was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A low pressure system over the Central North Pacific Ocean southeast of Hawaii strengthened on Friday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Pena.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern side of the center of Tropical Storm Pena.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Pena’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Pena generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of Tropical Storm Pena.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Pena.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Storm Pena were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Pena will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Pena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Pena is very likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.  Pena could move into a region where there is more vertical wind shear on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Pena will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Central North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Pena toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Pena will pass south of Hawaii.

Vance Weakens to a Tropical Depression

Former Tropical Storm Vance weakened to a tropical depression on Wednesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Vance was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 109.1°W which put the center about 220 miles (355 km) west of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Vance was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Vance weakened to a tropical depression on Wednesday afternoon.  An upper level trough that was west of Baja California was producing strong southwesterly winds that were blowing across the top of Vance’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.

The strong vertical wind shear was causing the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Depression Vance to be very asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the northeastern part of Vance’s circulation.  Bands in the other parts of Tropical Depression Vance consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Storms near the center of Vance generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical depression.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Wednesday.

Tropical Depression Vance will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Vance will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However, the upper level trough that is west of Baja California will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression Vance will continue to weaken on Thursday because of the strong vertical wind shear.

Tropical Depression Vance will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Vance slowly toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Vance will move toward the west coast of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Vance Meanders Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Storm Vance meandered slowly over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Vance was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 106.3°W which put the center about 275 miles (445 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Vance was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Storm Vance continued to weaken on Monday as it meandered southwest of Mexico.  An upper level trough over Baja California continued to produce southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Vance’s circulation.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear caused Vance to continue to weaken.

The strong vertical wind shear also continued to cause the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Vance to be asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern part of Vance’s circulation.  Bands in the western part of Tropical Storm Vance consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Vance generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure continued to increase on Monday.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Storm Vance decreased on Monday as Vance continued to weaken.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Vance’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Vance will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Vance slowly toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Vance will remain southwest of Mexico for the next several days.

Vance Weakens to a Tropical Storm

Former Hurricane Vance weakened to a tropical storm on Sunday as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Vance was located at latitude 15.0°N and longitude 104.7°W which put the center about 275 miles (445 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Vance was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Former Hurricane Vance weakened to a tropical storm on Sunday.  An upper level trough over Baja California was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Vance’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear caused Vance to weaken to a tropical storm.

The strong vertical wind shear also caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Vance to become asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the northeastern part of Vance’s circulation.  Bands in the other parts of Tropical Storm Vance consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Vance generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Sunday.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Vance was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the northern side of Vance’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles in the southern side of Tropical Storm Vance.

Tropical Storm Vance will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Vance will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However, the upper level trough over Baja California will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Vance is likely to continue to weaken on Monday because of the strong vertical wind shear.

Tropical Storm Vance will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Vance slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Vance will remain southwest of Mexico for the next several days.

Tropical Storm Olana Forms East of Date Line

Tropical Storm Olana formed over the Central North Pacific Ocean just to the east of the International Dateline on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Olana was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 178.0°W which put the center about 580 miles (935 km) west-southwest of Johnston Atoll.  Olana was moving toward the east-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A low pressure system over the Central North Pacific Ocean just to the east of the International Dateline strengthened on Sunday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Olana.

More thunderstorms were forming near the center of Tropical Storm Olana.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the eastern side of Olana’s circulation.  Bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Olana consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Olana generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Olana was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Olana’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Olana will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Olana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is over the North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Olana’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Olana could intensify a little during the next 24 hours, if the upper level winds to not get any stronger.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Storm Olana toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Olana will move closer to Johnston Atoll.

Vance Strengthens to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Vance strengthened to a hurricane as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Thursday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Vance was located at latitude 10.9°N and longitude 102.1°W which put the center about 580 miles (930 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Vance was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Vance strengthened to a hurricane on Thursday night.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Hurricane Vance.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Vance’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Vance.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Hurricane Vance.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the northern half of Vance’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of Hurricane Vance.

Hurricane Vance will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Vance will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Vance will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Vance could intensify rapidly at times.  Vance could strengthen to a major by the weekend.

Hurricane Vance will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over southern Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Vance toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Vance will gradually move closer to the west coast of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Vance Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Storm Vance formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Vance was located at latitude 9.4°N and longitude 99.8°W which put the center about 520 miles (835 km) south of Acapulco, Mexico.  Vance was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico strengthened on Wednesday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Vance.

More thunderstorms developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Vance on Wednesday afternoon.  Storms near the center of Vance’s circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Storm Vance.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northern side of Vance’s circulation.  The winds in the southern part of Tropical Storm Vance were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Vance will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Vance will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Vance will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Vance could strengthen to a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Vance will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over southern Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Vance toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Vance will start to move closer to the west coast of Mexico on Thursday.

Hurricane Trudy Rapidly Weakens

Hurricane Trudy weakened rapidly on Sunday evening as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Trudy was located at latitude 19.7°N and longitude 107.6°W which put the center about 130 miles (215 km) west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Trudy was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

An upper level trough that was over Baja California was producing strong westerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Hurricane Trudy.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear was causing Trudy to weaken rapidly on Sunday evening.  The strong upper level winds also blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms in Hurricane Trudy.  There was much less upper level divergence that pumped less mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was much less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure started to increase rapidly.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Trudy was getting smaller on Sunday evening.  Winds to hurricane force extended our 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Trudy’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Trudy.

Hurricane Trudy will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Trudy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  However, the upper level trough over Baja California will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Trudy to weaken to a tropical storm on Monday.

Since the strong vertical wind shear blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms in Hurricane Trudy, Trudy will be steered by the winds lower in the atmosphere.  A high pressure system over northern Mexico will steer Trudy toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Trudy will move farther away from Mexico on Monday.