Category Archives: Eastern and Central Pacific

TCs between Mexico and Hawaii

Andres Weakens to a Tropical Depression

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Former Tropical Storm Andres weakened to a tropical depression on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Andres was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 109.8°W which put it about 475 miles (765 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California. Andres was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Strong vertical wind shear caused former Tropical Storm Andres to weaken to a tropical depression on Monday afternoon. An upper level trough northwest of Baja California was producing strong southwesterly winds which were blowing across the top of Tropical Depression Andres. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear and they were blowing the tops off of thunderstorms that tried to form. A few thunderstorms developed east of the center of Andres earlier on Monday, but the strong upper level winds blew the tops off of those storms. The circulation around Tropical Depression Andres consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds on Monday afternoon.

Tropical Depression Andres will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Andres will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 26°C. However, the upper level trough northwest of Baja California will continue to produce strong upper level winds over Tropical Depression Andres. The strong upper level winds will blow the tops off any thunderstorms that begin to form and the circulation around Andres will gradually weaken.

Since the circulation around Tropical Depression Andres exists primarily in the lower levels, it will be steered by the wind closer to the surface. A large surface high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will steer Andres toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Andres will dissipate southwest of Baja California later this week.

TD 01E Strengthens to Tropical Storm Andres

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Former Tropical Depression One-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Andres southwest of Mexico on Sunday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Andres was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 107.9°W which put it about 620 miles (1000 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. Andres was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression One-E strengthened on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Andres. The circulation around Andres was exhibiting more organization. Storms near the center of the circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Andres. The strongest rainbands were in the eastern half of the circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Andres. The winds in the other parts of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Andres will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Andres will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 28°C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge southwest of Mexico. The winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Andres could strengthen during the next 24 hours. An upper level trough over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will approach Andres from the west on Monday. The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical storm. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. More wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Andres to weaken early next week.

Tropical Storm Andres will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico and Mexico. The high will steer Andres toward the northwest on Sunday. Tropical Storm Andres will move southeast of a large high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean during the early part of next week. That high pressure system will steer Andres toward the west. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Andres will remain south of Baja California.

Tropical Depression One-E Forms Southwest of Mexico

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Tropical Depression One-E formed southwest of Mexico on Sunday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression One-E was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 107.7°W which put it about 645 miles (1035 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. The depression was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a low pressure system formerly called Invest 90E on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression One-E. The circulation around the depression was exhibiting more organization. Storms near the center of the depression began to generate more upper level divergence which pumped mass away from it. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center.

Tropical Depression One-E will move through an environment favorable for develop of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. The tropical depression will move under the center of an upper level ridge southwest of Mexico. The winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Depression One-E is likely to strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. An upper level trough over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will approach the depression from the west on Monday. The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. More wind shear will cause the depression to weaken early next week.

Tropical Depression One-E will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico and Mexico. The high will steer the tropical depression toward the northwest on Sunday. Tropical Depression One-E will move southeast of a large high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean during the early part of next week. That high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the west. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression One-E will remain south of Baja California.

Tropical Development Possible Southwest of Mexico

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Development of a tropical cyclone southwest of Mexico is possible during the next few days. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Invest 90E was located at latitude 11.2°N and longitude 102.5°W which put it about 415 miles (670 km) south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. The Invest was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

An area of low pressure, currently designated as Invest 90E, exhibited more organization on Friday afternoon. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook for the low pressure system. NHC indicated that there was a 40% probability that the system would develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next 48 hours and a 60% chance that development would occur during the next five days.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of Invest 90E. Bands of showers and thunderstorms also developed and the bands began to revolve around the center of the low pressure system. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the system.

Invest 90E will move through an environment favorable for develop of a tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. The low pressure system will move under the center of an upper level ridge southwest of Mexico. The winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Invest 90E is likely to develop into a tropical depression and it could quickly intensify into a tropical storm.

Invest 90E will move southeast of a large high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the Invest slowly toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track the low pressure system will remain southwest of Mexico during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Polo Forms Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Storm Polo formed southwest of Baja California formed southwest of Baja California on Wednesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Iota was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 116.0°W which put it about 605 miles (970 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Polo was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a low pressure system southwest of Baja California on Wednesday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Polo. The circulation around Tropical Storm Polo was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in a band that wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of the center of Polo. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Polo will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27.5°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak during the next 24 hours and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Polo could intensify more on Wednesday. Polo will move closer to an upper level trough over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Thursday. The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Polo. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the shear will cause Polo to start to weaken later this week.

Tropical Storm Polo will move south of an high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Polo toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Polo will move farther away from Mexico.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Iota was moving across El Salvador. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Iota was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 89.5°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) west-northwest of San Salvador, El Salvador. Iota was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Odalys Forms Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Storm Odalys formed southwest of Baja California on Tuesday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 116.1°W which put it about 730 miles (1175 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Odalys was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The circulation around an area of low pressure southwest of Baja California exhibited more organization on satellite images and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Odalys. The circulation around Odalys was still organizing on Tuesday afternoon. There were a few thunderstorms around the broad center of circulation. A band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the western side of the circulation and a second band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the eastern side of Tropical Storm Odalys. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the eastern half of Odalys. Winds int he western half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Odalys will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Odalys will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. An upper level trough over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they will limit intensification. Tropical Storm Odalys could strengthen during the next 24 hours. The trough will move closer to Odalys on Thursday and the wind shear will increase. Stronger vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Odalys to weaken later this week.

Tropical Storm Odalys will move around the southwestern part of a ridge of high pressure centered over northern Mexico. The ridge will steer Odalys toward the west-northwest during the next several days hours. On its anticipated path Tropical Storm Odalys will move farther away from Baja California.

Norbert Regains Tropical Depression Status South of Baja California

Former Tropical Storm Norbert regained tropical depression status south of Baja California on Tuesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Norbert was located at latitude 19.8°N and longitude 111.7°W which put it about 245 miles (390 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Norbert was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

After strong vertical wind shear weakened former Tropical Storm Norbert on Saturday, the lower levels of the circulation drifted slowly toward the northwest.  The surface circulation around the former tropical storm moved into a region where the upper level winds were not as strong on Monday.  More thunderstorms began to develop in bands revolving around around the center of the surface circulation.  Additional thunderstorms formed near the center of the low on Tuesday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Norbert.

Tropical Depression Norbert will move through a region somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Norbert will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C during the next 12 hours.  It will remain over water warmer than 26°C until Wednesday afternoon.  After that time Norbert will start to move over even cooler water.  An upper level low west of central Baja California will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Depression Norbert.  Those winds will produce vertical wind shear, but Norbert will remain east of the strongest shear for another 24 hours.  When Norbert gets closer to the upper level low later on Wednesday, then the shear will increase and will cause it to weaken.

Tropical Depression Norbert will move between the upper level low west of Baja Californa and and upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico.  Those two weather systems will steer Norbert toward the northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Norbert is forecast to move parallel to the west coast of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Norbert Develops Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Storm Norbert developed southwest of Mexico on Tuesday morning.  At 5: 00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 106.2°W which put it about 385 miles (625 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Norbert was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

The wind speed increased around a low pressure system southwest of Mexico on Tuesday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Norbert.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Norbert.  Storms near the center of circulation started to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing outside the center of Norbert.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Norbert was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Norbert will be in an environment that is somewhat favorable for intensification.  Norbert will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  A large upper level trough extends from northern Mexico over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Norbert.  Those winds will cause vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Norbert could strengthen if the shear is not too strong.

Tropical Storm Norbert will be in a region where the steering currents are weak..  Norbert is not likely to move very much during the next several days.  If Tropical Storm Norbert remains in the same location for more than a day, its winds will mix cooler water to the surface.  That would limit the energy Norbert could extract from the ocean, and the tropical storm could weaken.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific, Tropical Storm Marie continued to churn west away from Baja California.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located at latitude 21.7°W and longitude 134.3°W which put it about 1560 miles (2510 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Marie was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Hurricane Marie Weakens West of Baja California

Hurricane Marie weakened west of Baja California on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Marie was located at latitude 19.5°N and longitude 127.9°W which put it about 1180 miles (1900 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Marie was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Hurricane Marie began to move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was cooler than 26°C on Saturday evening.  Marie was unable to extract enough energy from the ocean to maintain its intensity.  The circulation around Hurricane Marie pulled cooler, more stable air around its southern side.  The rainbands in the southern half of Marie started to weaken.  The southern side of the eyewall weakened too.  Strong thunderstorms were still occurring in rainbands in the northern half of Hurricane Marie.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center.

Hurricane Marie will move around the western side of a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S.  The high will steer Marie toward the north-northwest during the next few days.  Hurricane Marie will move over even cooler water during the next several days, which will cause it to weaken more quickly.  Marie could weaken to a tropical depression by the middle of next week.  Eventually, some of the moisture in Hurricane Marie could be transported over California by the end of next week.

Marie Strengthens into a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Marie strengthened into a major hurricane on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Marie was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 122.1°W which put it about 940 miles (1515 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Marie was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 957 mb.

The circulation around Hurricane Marie was very well organized on Thursday night.  There was a small circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) at the center of Marie.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Marie.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Marie.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center.

Hurricane Marie will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Marie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Marie is likely to strengthen on Friday.  If a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could begin which would cause Marie to weaken.  Hurricane Marie will move over cooler water during the weekend.  Marie will extract less energy from the ocean which will cause the wind speed to decrease.

Hurricane Marie will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S. and Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Marie toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Marie will move farther away from Baja California.