Category Archives: Eastern and Central Pacific

TCs between Mexico and Hawaii

Hurricane Polo Strengthens Back to Cat. 5 Again

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Hurricane Polo strengthened back to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale again early on Friday as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California.

At 9:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 108.2°W which put the center about 415 miles (665 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 215 m.p.h. (345 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 908 mb.

Hurricane Polo strengthened back to Category 5 early on Friday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Polo’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Polo.  Storms near the center of Polo generated upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of more mass in the upper levels caused the surface pressure to decrease again early  on Friday.

The circulation around Hurricane Polo was very symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

The Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 42.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 56.3.  Hurricane Polo is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dorian when Dorian hit the Bahamas in 2019.

Hurricane Polo will move through an environment that will be favorable for a  very powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is southwest of Mexico. The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Polo could intensify more during the next 24 hours unless another eyewall replacement cycle begins.  An upper level trough that is approaching the West Coast of the U.S. will start to cause more vertical wind shear during the weekend.  Hurricane Polo will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Hurricane Polo will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Polo toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Polo will move south of Baja California on Friday.   The upper level trough that is approaching the West Coast of the U.S. will steer Polo toward the northeast during the weekend.  Polo could reach southern Baja California on Monday.

A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for a portion of the coast of southern Baja California.

Hurricane Polo will bring strong winds and heavy rain to southern Baja California early next week.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Odalys intensified to a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Odalys was located at latitude 17.7°N and longitude 123.0°W which put the center about 975 miles (1570 km) west-southwest of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Odalys was moving toward the north-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 940 mb.

Nolo Strengthens to a Hurricane

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Former Tropical Storm Nolo strengthened to a hurricane as it moved over the Central North Pacific Ocean south of Hawaii on Thursday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Nolo was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 155.9°W which put the center about 270 miles (435 km) south of South Point, Hawaii.  Nolo was moving toward the north-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Hawaii County.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Hawaii County.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County including Maui, Lanai, Molokai, and Kahoolawe.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of the center of Hurricane Nolo.  A large circular eye appeared to be forming at the center of Nolo’s circulation.  They eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the western side of Hurricane Nolo.  Bands in the eastern side of Nolo’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Nolo generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Hurricane Nolo.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Nolo’s circulation.

Hurricane Nolo will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nolo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is northwest of Hawaii.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Nolo’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Nolo will intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.  Nolo could strengthen to a major hurricane during the weekend.

The upper level trough that is northwest of Hawaii will pull Hurricane Nolo slowly toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Nolo will move closer to the Big Island of Hawaii.  A high pressure system north of Hawaii is forecast to strengthen on Saturday.  If the high pressure system strengthens, it will steer Nolo toward the west during the weekend.

The circulation around the northern side of Hurricane Nolo could drop heavy rain on parts of the Big Island of Hawaii and on Maui.

Flood Watches are in effect for the Big Island of Hawaii, Maui, Lanai, Molokai, and Kahoolawe.

Hurricanes Polo and Odalys over Eastern North Pacific

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Hurricanes Polo and Odalys were spinning over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Thursday evening.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 106.5°W which put the center about 195 miles (315 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 935 mb.

Hurricane Polo weakened slightly on Thursday but Polo was still a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (27 km) was at the center of Polo’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Polo.  Storms near the center of Polo generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was a little less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere. So, the surface pressure increased on Thursday.

The circulation around Hurricane Polo was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

The Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 46.2.  Hurricane Polo is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Laura when Laura hit Southwest Louisiana in 2020.

Hurricane Polo will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is southwest of Mexico. The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Polo could intensify back to Category 5 on Friday.

Hurricane Polo will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Polo toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Polo will move south of Baja California on Friday.  Polo could reach southern Baja California on Monday.

Hurricane Polo could bring strong winds and heavy rain to southern Baja California early next week.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Odalys intensified to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Odalys was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 124.2°W which put the center about 1010 miles (1625 km) west-southwest of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Odalys was moving toward the east-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

Hurricane Polo Intensifies Back to Cat. 5

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Hurricane Polo intensified back to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved south of Mexico on Wednesday evening.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 104.2°W which put the center about 240 miles (390 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 923 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

Hurricane Polo intensified back to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale after an eyewall replacement cycle was completed on Wednesday.  A new circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of Polo’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Polo.  Storms near the center of Polo generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels caused the surface pressure to start to decrease again.

The circulation around Hurricane Polo was very symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

The Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 49.6.  Hurricane Polo is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Andrew when Andrew hit South Florida in 1992.

Hurricane Polo will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is south of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Polo could continue to intensify until another eyewall replacement cycle begins.

Hurricane Polo will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Polo toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Polo will move closer to the coast of southwest Mexico.  The strongest part of Hurricane Polo is forecast to pass west of the coast of Mexico.

Even though the strongest part of Hurricane Polo is forecast to pass west of the coast of Mexico, bands in the northern side of Polo will bring strong winds and heavy rains to the coast of southwestern Mexico.  Strong winds and heavy rain could affect parts of Colima, Michoacan, and western Guerrero.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Odalys continued to intensify gradually far to the southwest of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Odalys was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 127.7°W which put the center about 1205 miles (1940 km) west-southwest of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Odalys was moving toward the east at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Tropical Storm Nolo Forms South of Hawaii

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Tropical Storm Nolo formed over the Central North Pacific Ocean south of Hawaii on Wednesday afternoon.  A Hurricane Watch was issued for the Big Island of Hawaii.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Nolo was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 155.3°W which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) south of South Point, Hawaii.  Nolo was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Hawaii County.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Fifteen-E strengthened on Wednesday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Nolo.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Nolo was large.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands that curled round the northern and western sides of the center of Nolo’s circulation.  Bands in the southern and eastern side of Tropical Storm Nolo consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Nolo started to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to begin to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Storm Nolo.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the northern half of Nolo’s circulation.  The winds in the southern side of Tropical Storm Nolo were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Nolo will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nolo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is northwest of Hawaii.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Nolo’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear probably will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Nolo is likely to intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough that is northwest of Hawaii will pull Tropical Storm Nolo slowly toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Nolo will move closer to the Big Island of Hawaii.

 

Hurricane Polo Stalls South of Mexico

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Hurricane Polo stalled south of Mexico on Tuesday night.

At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 101.4°W which put the center about 320 miles (515 km) southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 922 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the existing eye and eyewall in Hurricane Polo.  An outer eyewall surrounded the inner eye and eyewall.  The formation of concentric eyewalls marked the start of an eyewall replacement cycle.  The eyewall replacement cycle caused the maximum sustained wind speed in Hurricane Polo to decrease as the inner eyewall started to weaken.

Two concentric eyewalls were still present in Hurricane Polo on Wednesday morning.  The inner eye had a diameter of 17 miles (28 km).  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls.  Storms near the center of Polo generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Tuesday night.

Even though Hurricane Polo was in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle, the size of circulation around Polo only got a little larger.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

The Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 46.1. Hurricane Polo is similar in intensity to Hurricane Laura when Laura hit Southwest Louisiana in 2020.  Polo is not as large as Laura was.

Hurricane Polo will move through an environment that will be very favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is south of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Polo could weaken a little more while the eyewall replacement cycle is underway.  Polo could strengthen back to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale once the inner eyewall dissipates completely.

A high pressure system is forecast to develop over Mexico later today.  The high pressure system will steer Hurricane Polo toward the northwest after it develops.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Polo will move closer to the coast of southwest Mexico.  The strongest part of Hurricane Polo is forecast to pass west of the coast of Mexico.

Even though the strongest part of Hurricane Polo is forecast to pass west of the coast of Mexico, bands in the northern side of Polo will bring strong winds and heavy rains to the coast of southwestern Mexico.  Strong winds and heavy rain could affect parts of Colima, Michoacan, and western Guerrero.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, former Tropical Storm Odalys strengthened to a hurricane far to the southwest of Baja California. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Odalys was located at latitude 15.9°N and longitude 128.4°W which put the center about 1295 miles (2085 km) west-southwest of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Odalys was moving toward the east-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

NOAA Plane Finds 180 mph Wind in Hurricane Polo

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A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane found a maximum sustained wind speed of 180 m.p.h. in Hurricane Polo on Tuesday afternoon.  The plane also found a minimum surface pressure of 892 mb.

At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 101.6°W which put the center about 350 miles (565 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Polo was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 215 m.p.h. (345 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 892 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

A small circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Hurricane Polo.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Polo.  Storms near the center of Polo generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Polo was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

The Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 42.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 54.7.  Hurricane Polo is similar in size to Hurricane Patricia when Patricia hit Mexico in 2015.  Hurricane Polo is not quite as strong as Patricia was.

Hurricane Polo will move through an environment that will be very favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is south of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Polo could intensify during the next few hours.  At some point the inner end of a rainband is likely to wrap around the existing eye and eyewall.  An eyewall replacement cycle would cause Polo to weaken, at least temporarily.

A strong high pressure system is forecast to develop over Mexico later on Tuesday.  The high pressure system will steer Hurricane Polo toward the northwest after it develops.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Polo will move closer to the coast of southwest Mexico.  The strongest part of Hurricane Polo is forecast to pass west of the coast of Mexico as of the most recent forecasts.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Odalys strengthened far to the southwest of Baja California.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 130.5°W which put the center about 1455 miles (2340 km) west-southwest of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Odalys was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Hurricane Polo Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 5

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Hurricane Polo rapidly intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale early on Tuesday as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 101.5°W which put the center about 360 miles (580 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the east at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 926 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo, Mexico.

Hurricane Polo rapidly intensified to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday morning.    A small circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Polo’ circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Polo.  Storms near the center of Polo generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Polo was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

The Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 47.5.  Hurricane Polo is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Andrew when Andrew hit south Florida in 1992.

Hurricane Polo will move through an environment that will be very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is south of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Polo is likely to continue to intensify during the next few hours.  At some point the inner end of a rainband is likely to wrap around the existing eye and eyewall.  An eyewall replacement cycle would cause Polo to weaken, at least temporarily.

Hurricane Polo will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Polo slowly toward the east during the next few hours.  A bigger and strong high pressure system is forecast to develop over Mexico later on Tuesday. The bigger and strong high pressure system will steer Hurricane Polo toward the northwest after it develops.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Polo will move closer to the coast of southwest Mexico.  The strongest part of Hurricane Polo is forecast to pass west of the coast of Mexico as of the most recent forecasts.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Odalys strengthened far to the southwest of Baja California.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 130.4°W which put the center about 1455 miles (2340 km) west-southwest of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Odalys was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Polo Rapidly Intensifies to a Hurricane

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Former Tropical Storm Polo rapidly intensified to a hurricane on Monday as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 103.0°W which put the center about 270 miles (435 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the east at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Polo rapidly intensified to a hurricane on Monday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Polo’s circulation.  A small circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) formed at the center of Hurricane Polo.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Polo’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Polo generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Polo was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

Hurricane Polo will move through an environment that will be very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is south of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Polo is likely to intensify rapidly to a major hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Polo could strengthen to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale later this week.

Hurricane Polo will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Polo slowly toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Polo will move a little closer to the coast of southwest Mexico.  A bigger and strong high pressure system is forecast to develop over Mexico on Tuesday.  The bigger and strong high pressure system will steer Hurricane Polo toward the northwest during the middle of this week.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Odalys continued to spin far to the southwest of Baja California.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 129.3°W which put the center about 1415 miles (2275 km) west-southwest of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Odalys was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Polo Forms South of Mexico

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Tropical Storm Polo formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Sunday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Polo was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 104.6°W which put the center about 270 miles (435 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the east-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico strengthened on Sunday evening and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Polo.

More thunderstorms were developing near the center of Tropical Storm Polo on Sunday evening.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Polo’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Tropical Storm Polo began to generate upper level divergence that started to pump mass away from the tropical storm.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Polo.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the eastern half of Polo’s circulation.  The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Polo were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Polo will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is south of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Polo will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Polo could intensify rapidly after an inner core forms.

Tropical Storm Polo will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Polo slowly toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Polo will move a little closer to the coast of southwest Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Odalys was gradually strengthening far to the southwest of Baja California.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 127.7°W which put the center about 1350 miles (2170 km) west-southwest of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Odalys was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.