Category Archives: Eastern and Central Pacific

TCs between Mexico and Hawaii

Hurricane Felicia and Tropical Storm Guillermo Weaken

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Both Hurricane Felicia and Tropical Storm Guillermo weakened on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Felicia was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 132.3°W which put it about 1515 miles (2435 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii. Felicia was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Hurricane Felicia weakened rapidly on Monday morning. Felicia moved over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures was near 26°C. The air over the cooler water was also drier. When the drier air entered the small circulation around Hurricane Felicia, thunderstorms in the eyewall and in the rainbands weakened. The eye at the center of Felicia filled with lower clouds. Many of the bands consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in a small area east of the center of circulation. Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Felicia will continue to weaken during the next several days. Felicia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C. It will continue to be an environment where the air is relatively dry, which will inhibit the formation of thunderstorms. An upper level trough near Hawaii will produce southwesterly winds that will blow across the top of Felicia. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear will cause Felicia to weaken faster. Hurricane Felicia could weaken to a tropical depression by Tuesday night.

Hurricane Felicia will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Felicia toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track the remnants of Hurricane Felicia could pass south of Hawaii at the end of the week.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Guillermo also weakened on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 117.8°W which put it about 575 miles (925 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Guillermo was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Hurricane Felicia Churns West, Tropical Storm Guillermo Strengthens

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Hurricane Felicia churned toward the west over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Felicia was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 129.0°W which put it about 1330 miles (2140 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Felicia was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Hurricane Felicia weakened gradually on Sunday as it churned westward over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. Even though Felicia was weakening, the circulation around the hurricane remained very well organized. A small circular eye was at the center of Hurricane Felicia. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Felicia. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Felicia was still small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Felicia. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Felicia is 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 6.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 28.3.

Hurricane Felicia will move through an environment that will become less favorable for a strong hurricane during the next 48 hours. Felicia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak during the next 24 hours. An upper level trough near Hawaii will move toward Felicia during the next several days. The trough will produce strong southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Hurricane Felicia in a couple of days. Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear and the shear will cause Felicia to weaken more quickly.

Hurricane Felicia will move south of a subtropical high pressure system during the next few days. The high will steer Felicia toward the west. On its anticipated track Hurricane Felicia will move over the Central Pacific Ocean on Tuesday night.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Guillermo strengthened gradually southwest of Baja California on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 113.8°W which put it about 385 miles (620 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Guillermo was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Guillermo was much larger than the circulation around Hurricane Felicia. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) on the eastern side of Guillermo. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) on the western side of the circulation. Tropical Storm Guillermo is forecast to move toward the west and to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Major Hurricane Felicia Strengthens

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Major Hurricane Felicia strengthened on Saturday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Felicia was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 124.6°W which put it about 1120 miles (1800 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Felicia was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Hurricane Felicia intensified on Saturday morning even though the small hurricane began to move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was slightly cooler. A well formed circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Felicia. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms around the core of Felicia generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The circulation around Hurricane Felicia was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (35 km) from the center of Felicia. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Felicia was 29.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.0.

Hurricane Felicia will gradually move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are slightly cooler. Felicia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C during the rest of the weekend. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Felicia will move through an environment capable of supporting a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Felicia will start to weaken when it moves over slightly cooler water. Since the circulation around Hurricane Felicia is very small, Felicia could weaken rapidly when it moves into a less favorable environment.

Hurricane Felicia will move south of a subtropical high pressure system during the next few days. The high will steer Felicia toward the west. On its anticipated track Hurricane Felicia will move toward the Central Pacific Ocean.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Seven-E formed south of Baja California on Saturday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Seven-E was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 109.2°W which put it about 475 miles (680 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California. The tropical depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Hurricane Felicia Reaches Cat. 4

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Hurricane Felicia reached Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Friday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Felicia was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 123.2°W which put it about 1030 miles (1660 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Felicia was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Hurricane Felicia strengthened to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Friday. A small circular eye at the center of Felicia became more well defined on satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms around the core of Felicia generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The circulation around Hurricane Felicia was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (35 km) from the center of Felicia. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Felicia was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 31.2.

Hurricane Felicia may have reached its peak intensity. Felicia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C for a few more hours. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Those environmental conditions may allow Hurricane Felicia to maintain its intensity for awhile. Felicia will move over slightly cooler water during the weekend. Cooler Sea Surface Temperatures will cause Hurricane Felicia to start to weaken.

Hurricane Felicia will move south of a subtropical high pressure system during the next few days. The high will steer Felicia toward the west. On its anticipated track Hurricane Felicia will move toward the Central Pacific Ocean.

Felicia Strengthens to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Felicia strengthened to a major hurricane on Friday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Felicia was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 121.0°W which put it about 900 miles (1450 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Felicia was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Hurricane Felicia continued to intensify quickly on Thursday and it strengthened to a major hurricane on Friday morning. A small circular eye was present at the center of Felicia. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms around the core of Felicia generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The circulation around Hurricane Felicia was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Felicia. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Felicia will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Felicia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Felicia could strengthen on Friday. Felicia will move over slightly cooler water during the weekend. Cooler Sea Surface Temperatures will cause Hurricane Felicia to weaken.

Hurricane Felicia will move south of a subtropical high pressure system during the next few days. The high will steer Felicia toward the west. On its anticipated track Hurricane Felicia will move toward the Central Pacific Ocean.

Felicia Quickly Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Felicia quickly intensified to a hurricane on Thursday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Felicia was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 118.6°W which put it about 775 miles (1250 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Felicia was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Storm Felicia organized quickly during the past 24 hours. A small circular eye developed at the center of Felicia. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Hurricane Felicia. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The circulation around Hurricane Felicia was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Felicia. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Felicia will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Felicia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Felicia will continue to intensify and it could strengthen to a major hurricane on Friday.

Hurricane Felicia will move south of a subtropical high pressure system during the next few days. The high will steer Felicia toward the west. On its anticipated track Hurricane Felicia will move toward the Central Pacific Ocean.

Tropical Storm Felicia Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Felicia formed south of Baja California on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Felicia was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 114.1°W which put it about 655 miles (1055 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Felicia was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of a low pressure system south of Baja California on Wednesday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Felicia. Thunderstorms were also forming in bands in the western half of Felicia’s circulation. Bands in the eastern half of the tropical storm consisted mainly of the showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Felicia generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Felicia will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Felicia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Felicia will continue to intensify and it could strengthen to a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Felicia will move south of a subtropical high pressure system during the next few days. The high will steer Felicia toward the west. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Felicia will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Storm Enrique Moves over Gulf of California

Tropical Storm Enrique moved over the southern Gulf of California on Tuesday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located at latitude 23.8°N and longitude 109.1°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) northeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Enrique was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

The small circulation around Tropical Storm Enrique moved over the warmer water in the southern Gulf of California on Tuesday evening. New thunderstorms formed just to the east of the center of Enrique. Downdrafts in those thunderstorms transported stronger winds to the surface and Enrique maintained tropical storm intensity. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Enrique. Bands in the other quadrants of the circulation consisted of showers and lower clouds. The winds were blowing at less than tropical storm force in those parts of Enrique.

Tropical Storm Enrique will move through an environment that could allow it to maintain its intensity during the next few hours. Enrique will move over water in the Gulf of California where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Enrique is likely to weaken rapidly when the center moves over mountains in southern Baja California.

Tropical Storm Enrique will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico. The high will steer Enrique toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Enrique could pass near La Paz during the middle of Wednesday. Enrique could make landfall north of La Paz later on Wednesday. Tropical Storm Enrique will bring gusty winds and isolated heavy rainfall to parts of southeastern Baja California on Wednesday.

Enrique Moves away from Cabo Corrientes, Watch Issued for Baja California

Hurricane Enrique moved slowly away from Cabo Corrientes on Monday morning and a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for a portion of the coast of southern Baja California. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Enrique was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 106.7°W which put it about 65 miles (105 km) west of Cabo Corrietnes, Mexico. Enrique was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles, Mexico. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portions of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula and from Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Mita to San Blas, Mexico.

Hurricane Enrique was moving slowly away from Cabo Corrientes on Monday morning. Enrique began to weaken as it moved away from the west coast of Mexico. Drier air was wrapping into the core of Hurricane Enrique. The thunderstorms around the eye were not as tall and breaks appeared to be developing in the eyewall. The wind speed was decreasing slowly near the center of circulation. Thunderstorms were also not as strong in the bands revolving around the core of Enrique. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Hurricane Enrique will move through an environment that will be less favorable for a hurricane during the next several days. Enrique will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are cooler. It will move into a region where there is more drier air. The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, a combination of cooler water and drier air is likely to cause Hurricane Enrique to weaken gradually during the next 48 hours. Enrique could weaken to a tropical storm on Tuesday.

Hurricane Enrique will move around the southwestern part of a surface high pressure system during the next several days. The high will steer Enrique toward the northwest. On its anticipated track Hurricane Enrique will move away from the west coast of Mexico. Enrique could approach the southern end of Baja California on Tuesday night. It is likely to be a tropical storm when it reaches Baja California.

Mexico Issues Hurricane Warning for Enrique

The government of Mexico issued a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the west coast of Mexico on Sunday afternoon because of the potential effects of Hurricane Enrique. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Enrique was located at latitude 19.0°N and longitude 105.7°W which put it about 95 miles (155 km) south of Cabo Corrietnes, Mexico. Enrique was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Play Perula, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portions of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula and from Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Mita to San Blas, Mexico.

A small eye appeared intermittently at the center of Hurricane Enrique on visible satellite images on Sunday. High clouds from a ring of thunderstorms around the eye obscured the eye at other times. The strongest winds were occurring in the ring of storms around the eye. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Enrique. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Hurricane Enrique. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Enrique will move through an environment that will be mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Enrique will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. The circulation on the eastern side of Hurricane Enrique will draw in some drier air from over Mexico. The drier air could limit the formation of thunderstorms in the eastern half of Enrique. Hurricane Enrique could get a little stronger during the next 24 hours. However, if drier air makes it to the core of Enrique, it could weaken the hurricane.

Hurricane Enrique will move around the western side of a surface high pressure system during the next few hours. The high will steer Enrique toward the north during that time period. On its anticipated track the core of Enrique is forecast to pass just to the west of Cabo Corrientes during the first half of Monday. The core of Hurricane Enrique with the strongest winds is forecast to pass just west of the coast. However, the eastern side of Enrique will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to portions of Jalisco around Cabo Corrientes.

A second, smaller high pressure system is forecast to form northeast of Hurricane Enrique on Monday. The second high will steer Enrique toward the northwest on Monday. On its anticipated track Hurricane Enrique could approach the southern end of Baja California on Wednesday.