Tag Archives: Cabo Corrientes

Hurricane Trudy Rapidly Weakens

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Hurricane Trudy weakened rapidly on Sunday evening as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Trudy was located at latitude 19.7°N and longitude 107.6°W which put the center about 130 miles (215 km) west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Trudy was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

An upper level trough that was over Baja California was producing strong westerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Hurricane Trudy.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear was causing Trudy to weaken rapidly on Sunday evening.  The strong upper level winds also blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms in Hurricane Trudy.  There was much less upper level divergence that pumped less mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was much less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure started to increase rapidly.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Trudy was getting smaller on Sunday evening.  Winds to hurricane force extended our 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Trudy’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Trudy.

Hurricane Trudy will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Trudy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  However, the upper level trough over Baja California will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Trudy to weaken to a tropical storm on Monday.

Since the strong vertical wind shear blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms in Hurricane Trudy, Trudy will be steered by the winds lower in the atmosphere.  A high pressure system over northern Mexico will steer Trudy toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Trudy will move farther away from Mexico on Monday.

Hurricane Trudy Moves Closer to Mexico

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Hurricane Trudy moved closer to the west coast of Mexico on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Trudy was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 105.0°W which put the center about 115 miles (185 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Trudy was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Corrientes to San Blas, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Las Islas Marias.

Hurricane Trudy appeared to go through an eyewall replacement cycle during the past 24 hours.

A circular eye with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) was at the center of Trudy’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Trudy’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Trudy generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So the surface pressure increased on Saturday.

The distribution of wind speeds in Hurricane Trudy was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Trudy’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Hurricane Trudy.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Trudy is 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 29.1.  Hurricane Trudy is similar in intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.  Trudy is larger than Isaias was.

Hurricane Trudy will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Trudy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is near Baja California.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Trudy’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Trudy could intensify on Sunday if the vertical wind shear does not increase too much.

Hurricane Trudy will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Trudy toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Trudy will approach the west coast of Mexico between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes.

The center of Hurricane Trudy is forecast to remain west of Mexico.  However, bands in the eastern side of Trudy’s circulation will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Trudy Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

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Hurricane Trudy intensified to a major hurricane on Thursday night as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Trudy was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 102.5°W which put the center about 240 miles (385 km) southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  Trudy was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Zihuatanejo, Mexico.

Hurricane Trudy intensified to a major hurricane on Thursday night.

A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Hurricane Trudy.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Trudy’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Trudy generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Hurricane Trudy.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Trudy’ circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Trudy is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 20.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 42.4.  Hurricane Trudy is similar in intensity to Hurricane Milton when Milton hit Florida in 2024.  Trudy is not quite as large as Milton was.

Hurricane Trudy will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Trudy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Trudy will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Trudy will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Trudy toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Trudy will move closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Simon was weakening south of Baja California.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Simon was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 108.8°W which put the center about 210 miles (335 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Simon was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Trudy Strengthens to a Hurricane

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Former Tropical Storm Trudy strengthened to a hurricane on Wednesday night as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Trudy was located at latitude 12.9°N and longitude 101.6°W which put the center about 300 miles (480 km) south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  Trudy was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Trudy strengthened to a hurricane on Wednesday night.

Tall thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Hurricane Trudy.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands revolving around the center of Trudy’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Trudy generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Hurricane Trudy.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northern side of Trudy’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Hurricane Trudy.

Hurricane Trudy will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Trudy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Trudy will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Trudy could rapidly intensify to a major hurricane by early on Friday.

Hurricane Trudy will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Trudy toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Trudy will move closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Simon was still meandering west of Mexico.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Simon was located at latitude 19.2°N and longitude 108.5°W which put the center about 200 miles (320 km) west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Simon was stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Hurricane Simon Meanders West of Mexico

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Hurricane Simon meandered over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Mexico on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Simon was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 107.6°W which put the center about 125 miles (200 km) west of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Simon was moving toward the west at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Las Islas Marias.

Hurricane Simon strengthened on Tuesday evening as it meandered just to the west of Mexico.

A very small circular eye with a diameter of 6 miles (10 km) was at the center of Hurricane Simon.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Short bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Simon’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Simon generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was greater than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure decreased on Tuesday evening.

The circulation around Hurricane Simon was very small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Simon’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Hurricane Simon.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Simon is 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 4.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 23.9.  Hurricane Simon is similar in intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.  Simon is much smaller than Zeta was.

Hurricane Simon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Simon could intensify back to a major hurricane during the next 12 hours.  Simon could meander back over cooler water it has mixed to the surface later on Wednesday.  If Simon meanders over that cooler water, then it is likely to weaken, because it will extract less energy from the ocean.

Hurricane Simon will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Simon will continue to meander slowly west of Mexico on Wednesday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Trudy formed south of Mexico.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Trudy was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 107.6°W which put the center about 440 miles (705 km) south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.  Trudy was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. 165 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Hurricane Simon Stalls Just West of Mexico

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Hurricane Simon stalled just west of Mexico on Monday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Simon was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 106.8°W which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) west of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Simon was moving toward the west-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Las Islas Marias.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Corrientes to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico.  The Hurricane Watch includes Puerto Vallarta.

Hurricane Simon weakened gradually as it stalled on Monday.

Even though Hurricane Simon weakened on Monday, a very small circular eye was still present at the center of Simon’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Simon’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Simon generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Monday.

The circulation around Hurricane Simon was very small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Simon’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hurricane Simon.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Simon is 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 4.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 20.9.  Hurricane Simon is similar in intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.  Simon is smaller than Idalia was.

Hurricane Simon will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Hurricane Simon will pull some drier air that is over Mexico into its circulation because Simon will remain very close to Mexico.  The drier air will inhibit the formation of new thunderstorms in the eastern and northern parts of Simon’s circulation.  Hurricane Simon is likely to continue to weaken gradually on Tuesday because of the effects of the drier air.  Simon could intensify on Wednesday when it is little farther away from the coast of Mexico.

Hurricane Simon will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Simon slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the core of Hurricane Simon will pass west of the Islas Marias on Tuesday night.

The core of Hurricane Simon will pass west of Las Islas Marias on Tuesday night.  Simon will bring strong winds and heavy rain to those islands on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Flash floods are likely to occur in some locations.  Hurricane Simon could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of coast of Las Islas Marias.

Hurricane Simon Stays Just West of Mexico

The core of Hurricane Simon stayed just to the west of the west coast of Mexico on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Simon was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 105.8°W which put the center about 55 miles (90 km) south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.   Simon was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to El Roblito, Mexico.  The Hurricane Warning includes Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Las Islas Marias.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from El Roblito to Tempehuaya, Mexico.

Hurricane Simon was a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Sunday afternoon.

A circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was at the center of Hurricane Simon.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Simon’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Simon generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Sunday.

The circulation around Hurricane Simon was very small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Simon’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Hurricane Simon.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Simon is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 8.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 33.3. Hurricane Simon is similar in intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.  Simon is smaller than Harvey was.

Hurricane Simon will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Hurricane Simon is likely to pull some drier air that is over Mexico into its circulation because Simon will remain very close to Mexico.  The drier air will inhibit the formation of new thunderstorms in the eastern and northern parts of Simon’s circulation.  Hurricane Simon is likely to weaken on Monday because of the effects of the drier air.

Hurricane Simon will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Simon toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the core of Hurricane Simon will remain just to the west of Mexico on Monday.  The center of Simon’s circulation will pass just to the west of Cabo Corrientes on Sunday night.  The core of Hurricane Simon will be near Las Islas Marias on Monday afternoon.

Bands in the eastern side of Hurricane Simon will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico.  The strongest winds and heaviest rains will occur in Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

The core of Hurricane Simon will pass near Las Islas Marias on Monday afternoon.  Simon will bring strong winds and heavy rain to those islands.  Flash floods are likely to occur in some locations.  Hurricane Simon could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along parts of coast of Las Islas Marias.

Simon Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Simon intensified to a major hurricane as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Friday.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Simon was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 104.6°W which put the center about 155 miles (250 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico.   Simon was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico.  The Hurricane Warning includes Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Mita to El Roblito, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Las Islas Marias.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.

Hurricane Simon intensified to a major hurricane on Friday.

A very small eye formed at the center of Hurricane Simon.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Simon’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Simon generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Simon was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Simon’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Hurricane Simon.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Simon is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 6.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 28.2.

Hurricane Simon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Simon will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Simon could intensify rapidly at times.  Hurricane Simon could strengthen to a Category 5 hurricane on Saturday.

Hurricane Simon will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Simon toward the north during the next 24 hours.  Hurricane Simon will approach the west coast of Mexico between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes on Saturday.

Hurricane Simon is likely to be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Mexico.  Simon will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico.  The strongest winds and heaviest rains will occur in Jalisco and Nayarit.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Simon could cause a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along parts of the west coast of Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Rachel started to move toward Baja California.  Tropical Storm Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for parts of southern California, the northern part of Baja California and northwestern Mexico.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located at latitude 23.8°N and longitude 123.3°W which put the center about 720 miles (1160 km) south-southwest of San Diego, California.  Rachel was moving toward the northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Jose de Las Palomas, Mexico to the Mexico/U.S. border.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Isla San Luis to Puerto Penasco, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the U.S./Mexico border to the San Diego County/Orange County line in California.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Isla San Luis to Bahia de Los Angeles, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Libertad to Puerto Penasco, Mexico.

Rachel Intensifies to a Hurricane Southwest of Mexico

Former Tropical Storm Rachel intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Tuesday night.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Rachel was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 107.6°W which put the center about 220 miles (350 km) southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.   Rachel was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa, Perula, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Rachel intensified to a hurricane on Tuesday night.  Tall thunderstorms formed near the center of Hurricane Rachel.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Rachel’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Rachel generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of Hurricane Rachel.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the eastern side of Rachel’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Hurricane Rachel.

Hurricane Rachel will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rachel will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Rachel will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Rachel could intensify rapidly at times.  Hurricane Rachel could strengthen to a major hurricane during the next day or so.

Hurricane Rachel will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over northern Mexico.  The high pressure system will Rachel toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Rachel will move parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Bands in the eastern periphery will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of southwestern Mexico on Wednesday.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Former Hurricane Nolo weakened to a tropical storm far to the west of Hawaii.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Nolo was located at latitude 22.2°N and longitude 164.8°W which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) southeast of French Frigate Shoals.  Nolo was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef.

Hurricane Polo Hits Sonora

Hurricane Polo hit Sonora on Tuesday morning after crossing the southern part of Baja California on Monday night.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 26.9°N and longitude 111.7°W which put the center about 90 miles (145 km) south-southwest of Guaymas, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the west coast of Baja California from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the east coast of Baja California from  Loreto to Bahia San Juan Bautista, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Loreto to San Evaristo, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Huatabampito to Topolobampo, Mexico.

A large upper level trough over the western U.S. was producing strong southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Hurricane Polo.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  Those winds were also blowing the upper part of Polo’s circulation to the northeast of the lower level circulation.  The upper part of Hurricane Polo was already over Sonora.  The lower part of Polo’s circulation was near the coast south of Guaymas.

Hurricane force winds extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of the surface circulation around Hurricane Polo.  Tropical storm force winds extended out 90 miles from the center of the surface circulation.

The upper level trough over the western U.S. will steer Hurricane Polo toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Polo will move across northern Mexico toward New Mexico.

The strong vertical wind shear and the mountains in northern Mexico will cause the surface circulation around Hurricane Polo to weaken quickly.  The upper part of Hurricane Polo could reach southern New Mexico on Tuesday night.

Hurricane Polo will continue to produce strong winds and heavy rain over Sonora during the next few hours.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Polo could also drop locally heavy rain over parts of northern Mexico and New Mexico.

Flood Watches are in effect for much of New Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Rachel was gradually getting better organized.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 104.8°W which put the center about 370 miles (595 km) south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.   Rachel was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa, Perula, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.