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Hurricane Flossie Strengthens to Cat. 2

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Hurricane Flossie strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Flossie was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 105.9°W which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Flossie was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo, Mexico.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Hurricane Flossie on Tuesday morning.  A circular eye was visible at the center of Flossie’s circulation on satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Flossie.  Storms near the center of Flossie generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The area of hurricane force winds speeds in Hurricane Flossie increased on Tuesday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Flossie’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Flossie.

Hurricane Flossie will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Flossie will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Mexico and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Flossie will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Flossie could intensify rapidly at times.  Hurricane Flossie is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane by Wednesday.

Hurricane Flossie will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the Flossie toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Flossie will move parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.  Flossie is likely to move south of Baja California on Wednesday night.

Bands in the northeastern side of Hurricane Flossie will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of the coast of southwestern Mexico.  The heaviest rain will fall in parts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Flossie Intensifies to a Hurricane South of Mexico

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Former Tropical Storm Flossie intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Flossie was located at latitude 16.5°N and longitude 104.3°W which put the center about 175 miles (280 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Flossie was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Flossie intensified steadily on Monday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center upgraded Flossie to a hurricane on Monday night.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of Hurricane Flossie.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Flossie’s circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in the inner end of the rainband that wrapped around the center of Hurricane Flossie.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Flossie’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Flossie generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of winds speeds in Hurricane Flossie became more symmetrical on Monday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Flossie’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Hurricane Flossie.

Hurricane Flossie will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Flossie will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over southern Mexico and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Flossie will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Flossie could intensify rapidly at times.  Hurricane Flossie could strengthen to a major hurricane.

Hurricane Flossie will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the Flossie toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Flossie will move parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Bands in the northern side of Hurricane Flossie will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of the coast of southwestern Mexico.   The heaviest rain will fall in parts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Dalila Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Storm Dalila formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 102.4°W which put the center about 205 miles (335 km) south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  Dalila was moving toward the north-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Playa Perula, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico,

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico strengthened on Friday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Dalila.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Dalila’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Dalila.  Storms near the center of Dalila generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Dalila was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 310 miles (500 km) from the center of Dalila’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Dalila will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dalila will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle part of an upper level ridge over southern Mexico and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Dalila will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical disturbance toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Dalila will move a little closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico on Friday night.

Thunderstorms in bands in the northern periphery of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to coastal portions of southwestern Mexico.  The heaviest rain is likely fall in parts of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some location.

Hurricane Lidia Approaches West Coast of Mexico

Hurricane Lidia was approaching the west coast of Mexico on Tuesday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Lidia was located at latitude 18.8°N and longitude 108.3°W which put it about 235 miles (380 km) west-southwest of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. Lidia was moving toward the east-northeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Escuinapa, Mexico. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Escuinapa to Mazatlan, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

Hurricane Lidia was intensifying as it approached the west coast of Mexico on Tuesday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Lidia’s circulation. The strongest winds were occurring near the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Lidia. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Lidia. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Lidia will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Lidia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is west of Baja California. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Lidia’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Hurricane Lidia will intensity during the next few hours. Lidia could intensify rapidly.

The upper level trough west of Baja California will steer Hurricane Lidia toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Lidia will make landfall near Puerto Vallarta on Tuesday evening. Lidia will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain. The strong winds will be capable of causing serious damage. Outages of electricity are likely. Heavy rain will fall in Jalisco and Nayarit. The heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Hurricane Lidia could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of Jalisco.

Tropical Storm Max Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Mexico

Tropical Storm Max brought wind and rain to southern Mexico on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Max was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 101.0°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) east of Zihuantenajo, Mexico. Max was moving toward the north-northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Acapulco to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.

The center of Tropical Storm Max made landfall on the coast of Mexico between Petatlan and Papanoa on Monday afternoon. The maximum sustained wind speed in Tropical Storm Max at the time of landfall was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Max’s circulation. A weather station at Puerto Vicente Guerrero reported a sustained wind speed of 41 m.p.h. (66 km/h) and a wind gust of 72 m.p.h. (116 km/h).

Tropical Storm Max will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the Caribbean Sea and Mexico. The high pressure system will steer max toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Max will move inland over Guerrero during Monday night.

Tropical Storm Max will weaken rapidly when it moves over the Sierra Madre del Sur mountains in Gurrero. Even though Max will weaken rapidly, the tropical storm is likely to drop locally heavy rain in parts of Guerrero. The heaviest rain will fall in places where the winds push the air up the slopes of mountains. The heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Lidia was on the threshold of intensifying to a hurricane south of Baja California. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 110.9°W which put it about 340 miles (545 km) south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Lidia was moving toward the east-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Storm Lidia is forecast to intensify to a hurricane as it moves toward the west coast of Mexico on Monday night. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Escuinapa, Mexico. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Escuinapa to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Max Approaches Mexico

Tropical Storm Max was approaching the coast of Mexico near Zihuatanejo on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Max was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 101.2°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) south-southeast of Zihuantenajo, Mexico. Max was moving toward the north-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Acapulco to Punta San Telmo, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Max intensified as it neared the coast of southwest Mexico near Zihuatanejo on Monday morning. A rainband wrapped around the southern part of the center of Max’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Max. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Max’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Max will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the Caribbean Sea and Mexico. The high pressure system will steer max toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Max will make landfall on the coast of Mexico near Zihuatenajo in a few hours.

Tropical Storm Max will move through an environment favorable for intensification until it makes landfall. Max will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that extends from Mexico to the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Max’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Max could intensify a little more before it makes landfall in Mexico.

Tropical Storm Max will bring gusty winds to the coast of southwest Mexico. Max will also drop heavy rain of parts of Guerrero and Michoacan. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Storm Max could cause a storm surge of up to 6 feet (1.8 meters) along the coast near Zihuatanejo.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Lidia started to move northeast toward the west coast of Mexico. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 111.8°W which put it about 350 miles (525 km) south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Lidia was moving toward the northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Storm Lidia is forecast to intensify to a hurricane as it moves toward the west coast of Mexico. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Escuinapa, Mexico. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Escuinapa to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Max Forms Near Southwest Mexico

Tropical Storm Max formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean near the coast of southwest Mexico on Sunday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Max was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 101.9°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) south-southwest of Zihuantenajo, Mexico. Max was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Acapulco to Punta San Telmo, Mexico.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean near the southwest coast of Mexico strengthened during Sunday evening and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Max. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Storm Max on Sunday evening. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Max’s circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Wind to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Max.

Tropical Storm Max will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the Caribbean Sea and Mexico. The high pressure system will steer max toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Max will make landfall on the coast of Mexico west of Zihuatenajo on Monday evening.

Tropical Storm Max will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Max will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that extends from Mexico to the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Max’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Max is likely to intensify before it makes landfall in Mexico.

Tropical Storm Max will bring gusty winds to the coast of southwest Mexico. Max will also drop heavy rain of parts of Guerrero and Michoacan. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Lidia continued to meander south of Baja California. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located at latitude 18.2°N and longitude 112.6°W which put it about 370 miles (595 km) south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Lidia was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Storm Lidia is forecast to start to move toward the northeast on Monday and to strengthen to a hurricane. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Las Islas Marias and the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Mazatlan, Mexico. Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the portions of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula and from Bahia Tempehuaya to Mazatlan, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Beatriz Develops Near Mexico

Tropical Storm Beatriz developed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean near Mexico on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Beatriz was located at latitude 15.0°N and longitude 99.4°W which put it about 135 miles (220 km) south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Beatriz was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Zihuatenajo to Playa Perula, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Manzanillo. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Maldonado to Zihuatenajo, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning included Acapulco. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita, Mexico.

Former Tropical Depression Two-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Beatriz over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean near Mexico on Thursday afternoon. A distinct low level center of circulation was evident on visible satellite images of Tropical Storm Beatriz. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Beatriz’ circulation. Storm near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Beatriz. The winds in the other parts of Beatriz’ circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Beatriz will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Beatriz will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over Mexico and the southern U.S. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Beatriz. However, the winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Beatriz will intensify during the next 24 hours. Beatriz could intensify rapidly at times. Tropical Storm Beatriz could strengthen to a hurricane during the next 24 hours.

The upper level ridge over Mexico and the southern U.S. will steer Tropical Storm Beatriz toward the northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Beatriz will move closer to the coast of Mexico. The center of Beatriz could be near Manzanillo by Friday evening. Beatriz could be a hurricane when it gets near Manzanillo. Bands in the northern side of Tropical Storm Beatriz could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of the west coast of Mexico. Locally heavy rain could fall in parts of Oaxaca and Guerrero. Strong winds and locally heavy rain could affect Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Adrian was churning south of Baja California. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Adrian was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 110.7°W which put it about 450 miles (720 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California. Adrian was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Hurricane Roslyn Hits West Coast of Mexico

Hurricane Roslyn hit the west coast of Mexico on Sunday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Roslyn was located at latitude 22.1°N and longitude 105.5°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) northwest of Tepic, Mexico. Roslyn was moving toward the north-northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Escuinapa, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Puerto Vallarta. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Escuinapa to Mazatlan, Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico and from Escuinapa to Mazatlan, Mexico.

The center of Hurricane Roslyn made landfall on the west coast of Mexico north of San Blas on Sunday morning. Roslyn was a major hurricane at the time of landfall. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Roslyn’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.6. Hurricane Roslyn was capable of causing localized major damage.

An upper level trough west of Baja California and a high pressure system over Mexico will steer Hurricane Roslyn quickly toward the northeast on Sunday. Roslyn will bring strong winds and drop locally heavy rain over Nayarit. Strong winds are likely to cause damage and electricity outages. Hurricane Roslyn will weaken steadily as it moves inland over western Mexico. Even though it will weaken, Roslyn could also drop locally heavy rain over southern Durango. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some parts of Nayarit and southern Durango.

Major Hurricane Roslyn Nears West Coast of Mexico

Major Hurricane Roslyn neared the west coast of Mexico on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Roslyn was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 106.6°W which put it about 65 miles (105 km) west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Roslyn was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Escuinapa, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Puerto Vallarta. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Escuinapa to Mazatlan, Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico and from Escuinapa to Mazatlan, Mexico.

Hurricane Roslyn was at Category 4 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it approached the west coast of Mexico on Saturday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was at the center of Roslyn’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Roslyn. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Roslyn was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Roslyn’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 33.6. Hurricane Roslyn was capable of causing localized severe damage.

Hurricane Roslyn will into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next few hours. Roslyn will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. However, an upper level trough west of Baja California will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Roslyn’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Hurricane Roslyn could start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

The upper level trough west of Baja California will steer Hurricane Roslyn toward the northeast during Sunday. On its anticipated track Hurricane Roslyn will make landfall on the west coast of Mexico near San Blas on Sunday morning. Although Roslyn could weaken before it makes landfall, it is likely to still be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of Mexico. Roslyn will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Nayarit. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Hurricane Roslyn could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the coast. Hurricane Roslyn will be capable of causing localized major damage.