Tag Archives: Playa Perula

Rachel Intensifies to a Hurricane Southwest of Mexico

Former Tropical Storm Rachel intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Tuesday night.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Rachel was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 107.6°W which put the center about 220 miles (350 km) southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.   Rachel was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa, Perula, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Rachel intensified to a hurricane on Tuesday night.  Tall thunderstorms formed near the center of Hurricane Rachel.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Rachel’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Rachel generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of Hurricane Rachel.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the eastern side of Rachel’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Hurricane Rachel.

Hurricane Rachel will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rachel will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Rachel will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Rachel could intensify rapidly at times.  Hurricane Rachel could strengthen to a major hurricane during the next day or so.

Hurricane Rachel will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over northern Mexico.  The high pressure system will Rachel toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Rachel will move parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Bands in the eastern periphery will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of southwestern Mexico on Wednesday.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Former Hurricane Nolo weakened to a tropical storm far to the west of Hawaii.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Nolo was located at latitude 22.2°N and longitude 164.8°W which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) southeast of French Frigate Shoals.  Nolo was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef.

Hurricane Polo Hits Sonora

Hurricane Polo hit Sonora on Tuesday morning after crossing the southern part of Baja California on Monday night.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 26.9°N and longitude 111.7°W which put the center about 90 miles (145 km) south-southwest of Guaymas, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the west coast of Baja California from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the east coast of Baja California from  Loreto to Bahia San Juan Bautista, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Loreto to San Evaristo, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Huatabampito to Topolobampo, Mexico.

A large upper level trough over the western U.S. was producing strong southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Hurricane Polo.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  Those winds were also blowing the upper part of Polo’s circulation to the northeast of the lower level circulation.  The upper part of Hurricane Polo was already over Sonora.  The lower part of Polo’s circulation was near the coast south of Guaymas.

Hurricane force winds extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of the surface circulation around Hurricane Polo.  Tropical storm force winds extended out 90 miles from the center of the surface circulation.

The upper level trough over the western U.S. will steer Hurricane Polo toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Polo will move across northern Mexico toward New Mexico.

The strong vertical wind shear and the mountains in northern Mexico will cause the surface circulation around Hurricane Polo to weaken quickly.  The upper part of Hurricane Polo could reach southern New Mexico on Tuesday night.

Hurricane Polo will continue to produce strong winds and heavy rain over Sonora during the next few hours.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Polo could also drop locally heavy rain over parts of northern Mexico and New Mexico.

Flood Watches are in effect for much of New Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Rachel was gradually getting better organized.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 104.8°W which put the center about 370 miles (595 km) south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.   Rachel was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa, Perula, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

Hurricane Polo Brings Wind and Rain to Baja California

Hurricane Polo brought wind and rain to the southern part of Baja California on Monday night.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 25.9°N and longitude 112.5°W which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) north of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the northeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the west coast of Baja California from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the east coast of Baja California from  Loreto to Bahia San Juan Bautista, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to Punta Abreojos, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from ; Loreto to San Evaristo, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Huatabampito to Topolobampo, Mexico.

Hurricane Polo was still a major hurricane on Monday night.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

he Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 13.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 33.9.  Hurricane Polo is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

An upper level trough over the western U.S. will steer Hurricane Polo toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipate track, the center of Hurricane Polo will move across the southern part of Baja California during the next few hours.  The center of Polo’s circulation could pass between Loreto and Santa Rosalia.

Hurricane Polo will bring strong winds and heavy rain to southern Baja California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Polo will be capable of causing major damage.

Hurricane Polo will weaken as it moves across the southern part of Baja California.  However, Polo could still be a hurricane when it reaches the west coast of Mexico.  The center of Hurricane Polo will make a landfall on the west coast of Mexico near Guaymas early on Tuesday.

Hurricane Polo will also bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Sonora.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations there as well.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Rachel was strengthening gradually.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 102.5°W which put the center about 345 miles (555 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.   Rachel was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa, Perula, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

 

Hurricane Polo Nears Southern Baja California

Hurricane Polo moved nearer to the coast of southern Baja California on Sunday evening.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 22.8°N and longitude 114.0°W which put the center about 175 miles (280 km) southwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the west coast of Baja California from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the east coast of Baja California from  Loreto to Santa Rosalia, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Guaymas to Huatabampito, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch  is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to Punta Abreojos, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from ; Loreto to San Evaristo, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Guaymas to Bahia Kino, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Huatabampito to Topolobampo, Mexico.

Hurricane Polo was still a major hurricane on Sunday evening.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was present at the center of Polo’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Polo.  Storms near the center of Polo generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure did not change much on Sunday.

The distribution of wind speeds in Hurricane Polo was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

The Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 23.4. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 38.0.  Hurricane Polo is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Milton when Milton hit Florida in 2024.

Hurricane Polo will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, Polo will move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is near the West Coast of the U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Polo’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase on Monday.  Hurricane Polo will weaken during the next 24 hours because of more vertical wind shear.

The upper level trough near the West Coast of the U.S. will pull Hurricane Polo toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Polo will make landfall on the coast of southwest Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro on Monday afternoon.

Hurricane Polo will bring strong winds and heavy rain to southern Baja California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Rachel formed south of Mexico.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located at latitude 12.9°N and longitude 99.8°W which put the center about 275 miles (445 km) south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  Rachel was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa, Perula, Mexico.

Hurricane Polo Intensifies Back to Cat. 5

Hurricane Polo intensified back to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved south of Mexico on Wednesday evening.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 104.2°W which put the center about 240 miles (390 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 923 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

Hurricane Polo intensified back to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale after an eyewall replacement cycle was completed on Wednesday.  A new circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of Polo’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Polo.  Storms near the center of Polo generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels caused the surface pressure to start to decrease again.

The circulation around Hurricane Polo was very symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

The Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 49.6.  Hurricane Polo is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Andrew when Andrew hit South Florida in 1992.

Hurricane Polo will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is south of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Polo could continue to intensify until another eyewall replacement cycle begins.

Hurricane Polo will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Polo toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Polo will move closer to the coast of southwest Mexico.  The strongest part of Hurricane Polo is forecast to pass west of the coast of Mexico.

Even though the strongest part of Hurricane Polo is forecast to pass west of the coast of Mexico, bands in the northern side of Polo will bring strong winds and heavy rains to the coast of southwestern Mexico.  Strong winds and heavy rain could affect parts of Colima, Michoacan, and western Guerrero.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Odalys continued to intensify gradually far to the southwest of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Odalys was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 127.7°W which put the center about 1205 miles (1940 km) west-southwest of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Odalys was moving toward the east at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Hurricane Polo Stalls South of Mexico

Hurricane Polo stalled south of Mexico on Tuesday night.

At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 101.4°W which put the center about 320 miles (515 km) southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 922 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the existing eye and eyewall in Hurricane Polo.  An outer eyewall surrounded the inner eye and eyewall.  The formation of concentric eyewalls marked the start of an eyewall replacement cycle.  The eyewall replacement cycle caused the maximum sustained wind speed in Hurricane Polo to decrease as the inner eyewall started to weaken.

Two concentric eyewalls were still present in Hurricane Polo on Wednesday morning.  The inner eye had a diameter of 17 miles (28 km).  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls.  Storms near the center of Polo generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Tuesday night.

Even though Hurricane Polo was in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle, the size of circulation around Polo only got a little larger.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

The Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 46.1. Hurricane Polo is similar in intensity to Hurricane Laura when Laura hit Southwest Louisiana in 2020.  Polo is not as large as Laura was.

Hurricane Polo will move through an environment that will be very favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is south of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Polo could weaken a little more while the eyewall replacement cycle is underway.  Polo could strengthen back to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale once the inner eyewall dissipates completely.

A high pressure system is forecast to develop over Mexico later today.  The high pressure system will steer Hurricane Polo toward the northwest after it develops.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Polo will move closer to the coast of southwest Mexico.  The strongest part of Hurricane Polo is forecast to pass west of the coast of Mexico.

Even though the strongest part of Hurricane Polo is forecast to pass west of the coast of Mexico, bands in the northern side of Polo will bring strong winds and heavy rains to the coast of southwestern Mexico.  Strong winds and heavy rain could affect parts of Colima, Michoacan, and western Guerrero.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, former Tropical Storm Odalys strengthened to a hurricane far to the southwest of Baja California. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Odalys was located at latitude 15.9°N and longitude 128.4°W which put the center about 1295 miles (2085 km) west-southwest of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Odalys was moving toward the east-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

NOAA Plane Finds 180 mph Wind in Hurricane Polo

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane found a maximum sustained wind speed of 180 m.p.h. in Hurricane Polo on Tuesday afternoon.  The plane also found a minimum surface pressure of 892 mb.

At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 101.6°W which put the center about 350 miles (565 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Polo was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 215 m.p.h. (345 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 892 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

A small circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Hurricane Polo.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Polo.  Storms near the center of Polo generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Polo was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

The Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 42.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 54.7.  Hurricane Polo is similar in size to Hurricane Patricia when Patricia hit Mexico in 2015.  Hurricane Polo is not quite as strong as Patricia was.

Hurricane Polo will move through an environment that will be very favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is south of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Polo could intensify during the next few hours.  At some point the inner end of a rainband is likely to wrap around the existing eye and eyewall.  An eyewall replacement cycle would cause Polo to weaken, at least temporarily.

A strong high pressure system is forecast to develop over Mexico later on Tuesday.  The high pressure system will steer Hurricane Polo toward the northwest after it develops.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Polo will move closer to the coast of southwest Mexico.  The strongest part of Hurricane Polo is forecast to pass west of the coast of Mexico as of the most recent forecasts.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Odalys strengthened far to the southwest of Baja California.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 130.5°W which put the center about 1455 miles (2340 km) west-southwest of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Odalys was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Hurricane Flossie Strengthens to Cat. 2

Hurricane Flossie strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Flossie was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 105.9°W which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Flossie was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo, Mexico.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Hurricane Flossie on Tuesday morning.  A circular eye was visible at the center of Flossie’s circulation on satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Flossie.  Storms near the center of Flossie generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The area of hurricane force winds speeds in Hurricane Flossie increased on Tuesday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Flossie’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Flossie.

Hurricane Flossie will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Flossie will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Mexico and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Flossie will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Flossie could intensify rapidly at times.  Hurricane Flossie is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane by Wednesday.

Hurricane Flossie will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the Flossie toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Flossie will move parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.  Flossie is likely to move south of Baja California on Wednesday night.

Bands in the northeastern side of Hurricane Flossie will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of the coast of southwestern Mexico.  The heaviest rain will fall in parts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Flossie Intensifies to a Hurricane South of Mexico

Former Tropical Storm Flossie intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Flossie was located at latitude 16.5°N and longitude 104.3°W which put the center about 175 miles (280 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Flossie was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Flossie intensified steadily on Monday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center upgraded Flossie to a hurricane on Monday night.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of Hurricane Flossie.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Flossie’s circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in the inner end of the rainband that wrapped around the center of Hurricane Flossie.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Flossie’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Flossie generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of winds speeds in Hurricane Flossie became more symmetrical on Monday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Flossie’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Hurricane Flossie.

Hurricane Flossie will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Flossie will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over southern Mexico and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Flossie will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Flossie could intensify rapidly at times.  Hurricane Flossie could strengthen to a major hurricane.

Hurricane Flossie will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the Flossie toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Flossie will move parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Bands in the northern side of Hurricane Flossie will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of the coast of southwestern Mexico.   The heaviest rain will fall in parts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Dalila Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Storm Dalila formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 102.4°W which put the center about 205 miles (335 km) south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  Dalila was moving toward the north-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Playa Perula, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico,

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico strengthened on Friday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Dalila.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Dalila’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Dalila.  Storms near the center of Dalila generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Dalila was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 310 miles (500 km) from the center of Dalila’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Dalila will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dalila will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle part of an upper level ridge over southern Mexico and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Dalila will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical disturbance toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Dalila will move a little closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico on Friday night.

Thunderstorms in bands in the northern periphery of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to coastal portions of southwestern Mexico.  The heaviest rain is likely fall in parts of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some location.