Tag Archives: Baja California

Possible Development East-Northeast of Hawaii

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicated that a low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean east-northeast of Hawaii could develop into a subtropical or a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. The low pressure system is currently designated as Invest 90E. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Invest 90E was located at latitude 21.8°N and longitude 136.1°W which put it about 1280 miles (2065 km) east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii. It was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

The National Hurricane Center issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook on Thursday afternoon which indicated that a low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean had a 40% probability of development into a subtropical or a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. The low pressure system has been moving slowly toward the west between Baja California and Hawaii. The low pressure system currently has a hybrid structure. A well organized low level center of circulation was evident on visible satellite images. The low level center was located just to the east of a low pressure system in the middle and upper troposphere. The upper low was producing southerly winds that were blowing toward the top of the low level circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was affecting the structure of the system. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands north and east of the low level center of circulation. Bands south and west of the low level center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Invest 90E will move through an environment somewhat favorable for the formation of a subtropical or a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. The surface center of circulation will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24˚C. Since the upper low contains colder air, that water temperature is warm enough to support the development of a subtropical or a tropical cyclone. The low in the middle and upper troposphere will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit the development of a tropical cyclone. The current hybrid structure of Invest 90E and the marginally warm Sea Surface Temperatures would favor the development of a subtropical cyclone. However, if the strength of the upper level winds decreases, then a tropical cyclone could form.

Invest 90E will move south of a surface high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the low level center of circulation toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Invest 90E will move slowly toward the Central Pacific Ocean.

Pamela Strengthens to a Hurricane Southwest of Mazatlan

Former Tropical Storm Pamela strengthened to a hurricane southwest of Mazatlan, Mexico on Tuesday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Pamela was located at latitude 19.9°N and longitude 109.0°W which put it about 280 miles (455 km) southwest of Mazatlan, Mexico. Pamela was moving toward the north at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Mazatlan. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Altata to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico and from Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast of Baja California from Cabo San Lucas to Los Barilles.

Former Tropical Storm Pamela strengthened to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mazatlan on Tuesday morning. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Hurricane Pamela. Those thunderstorms generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Pamela. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) on the east side of Pamela. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Pamela will move through a region where the environment is somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Pamela will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the the southern part of an upper level trough over the western U.S. The trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Hurricane Pamela’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Pamela from getting stronger.

Hurricane Pamela will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Mexico during the next few hours. The high pressure system will steer Pamela toward the north during that time period. The upper level trough over the western U.S. will turn Pamela toward the northeast in a few hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Pamela will approach the west coast of Mexico early on Wednesday morning. Pamela will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the section of the coast near Mazatlan. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in parts of Sinaloa and Durango. The remnants of Pamela’s circulation could contribute to rainfall over Texas later this week,

Tropical Storm Pamela Intensifies, Hurricane Watch for Mexico

Tropical Storm Pamela intensified over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Monday morning and the government of Mexico issued a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the west coast. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 108.1°W which put it about 455 miles (735 km) south-southwest of Mazatlan, Mexico. Pamela was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa, Mexico. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Altata to Bahia Tempehuaya and from Escuinapa to San Blas. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast of Baja California from Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Pamela intensified more rapidly on Monday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped tightly around the southern and eastern sides of the center of Pamela. Storms near the center of circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease more quickly. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Pamela. The circulation around Pamela was relatively small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Pamela will move through a region where the environment is favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Pamela will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Pamela could strengthen to a hurricane during the next 12 hours. Pamela could intensify rapidly once an inner core with an eye and eyewall forms. Pamela could rapidly intensify to a major hurricane by Tuesday night.

Tropical Storm Pamela will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Pamela toward the north-northwest during that time period. An upper level trough over the western U.S. will turn Pamela toward the northeast on Tuesday. On its anticipated track Pamela could be south of Baja California on Tuesday evening. Pamela could be a major hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Mexico on Wednesday morning.

Tropical Storm Pamela Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Storm Pamela formed south of Mexico on Sunday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 105.9°W which put it about 265 miles (425 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Pamela was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A low pressure system south of Mexico strengthened on Sunday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Pamela. The circulation around Tropical Storm Pamela was gradually becoming more organized. A band of showers and thunderstorms was wrapping around the western and southern sides of the center of Pamela. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Pamela. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Pamela’s circulation. The winds in the other parts of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Pamela will move through a region where the environment is favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Pamela will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Pamela will intensify during the next 36 hours. It could strengthen to a hurricane by Monday night.

Tropical Storm Pamela will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico during the next 36 hours. The high pressure system will steer Pamela toward the northwest during that time period. An upper level trough over the western U.S. will turn Pamela toward the northeast later on Tuesday. On its anticipated track Pamela could be south of Baja California on Tuesday night. Pamela is likely to be a hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Mexico on Wednesday afternoon.

Hurricane Olaf Makes Landfall on Southern Tip of Baja California

Hurricane Olaf made landfall on southern tip of Baja California on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Olaf was located at latitude 23.0°N and longitude 109.6°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) east-northeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Olaf was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

A Hurricane Warning Was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Cabo San Lucas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito, Mexico and from Los Barriles to Loreto, Mexico.

The eye of Hurricane Olaf made landfall on the southern tip of Baja California near San Jose del Cabo on Thursday night. Olaf continued to intensify right up until the center moved ashore. Hurricane Olaf strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale prior to landfall. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Olaf. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Olaf was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.0

Hurricane Olaf was capable of causing regional serious damage. Olaf will produce strong winds over the southern part of Baja California. Wind damage could cause widespread power outages. Hurricane Olaf will also drop heavy rain over the region and flash floods are likely to occur. Hurricane Olaf will move northwest over Baja California during the next 24 hours. Mountains will begin to disrupt the circulation and Olaf will weaken. The area of heavy rain will move northward, as will the risk for flash floods.

Olaf Strengthens to a Hurricane Southeast of Baja California

Former Tropical Storm Olaf strengthened to a hurricane southeast of Baja California on Thursday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Olaf was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 108.3°W which put it about 155 miles (250 km) southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Olaf was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Hurricane Warning Was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Sante Fe, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Cabo San Lucas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico and from Los Barriles to San Evaristo, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Olaf intensified quickly to a hurricane during the past 24 hours. A circular eye formed at the center of Hurricane Olaf. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Olaf. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) on the eastern side of Olaf. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Olaf will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Olaf will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29˚C. It will move south of an upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Olaf’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification of Hurricane Olaf. Olaf will strengthen during the next 12 hours and there is a chance it could intensify to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Olaf will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high will steer Olaf toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Olaf will approach the southern end of Baja California on Thursday night. Olaf will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Baja California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Hurricane Olaf will also cause a storm surge along the southern end of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Olaf Develops West of Mexico

Tropical Storm Olaf developed west of Mexico on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located at latitude 18.9°N and longitude 107.5°W which put it about 315 miles (510 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Olaf was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Santa Fe, Mexico.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Fifteen-E strengthened on Wednesday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Olaf. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of Olaf. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Olaf. The winds were blowing at less than tropical storm force in the other parts of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Olaf will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Olaf will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29˚C. It will move south of an upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Olaf’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification of Tropical Storm Olaf. Olaf will strengthen during the next 24 hours and there is a chance it could intensify to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Olaf will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high will steer Olaf toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Olaf could approach the southern end of Baja California on Thursday. Olaf could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern Baja California.

Marty Weakens to a Tropical Depression

Former Tropical Storm Marty weakened to a tropical depression over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Marty was located at latitude 20.6°N and longitude 118.1°W which put it about 550 miles (885 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Marty was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Marty weakened to a tropical depression on Tuesday morning when it moved over cooler water. Few, if any, thunderstorms were occurring in the circulation around Tropical Depression Marty. The low level circulation was symmetrical and well organized, but it consisted almost entirely of showers and low clouds.

Tropical Depression Marty will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Marty will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C. The cool water will not supply enough energy to Marty for it to be able to strengthen.

Since the circulation of Tropical Depression Marty exists primarily in the lower levels, it will be steered by the winds near the surface. Marty will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Marty toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Marty will move farther away from Mexico.

Tropical Storm Marty Develops South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Marty developed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Monday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Marty was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 111.0°W which put it about 210 miles (340 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Marty was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation of former Hurricane Grace developed into Tropical Storm Marty south of Baja California on Monday morning. Although the surface circulation of former Hurricane Grace dissipated when it moved across central Mexico during the weekend, the circulation in the middle and upper troposphere remained intact. New thunderstorms began to form when the middle and upper parts of the circulation moved over the Eastern North Pacific west of Mexico. Downdrafts in those thunderstorms transported momentum down to the surface and a low level circulation spun up. More thunderstorms formed near the low level center on Monday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Marty.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Marty was well organized. Thunderstorms near the center of Marty were generating upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the tropical storm. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Marty. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Marty.

Tropical Storm Marty will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Marty will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge centered near Baja California. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Marty’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but it will not be strong enough to keep Tropical Storm Marty from getting stronger during the next 24 hours. Marty will move over cooler water on Tuesday and there will be less energy available to the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Marty will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Marty toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Marty will move farther away from Baja California.

Elsewhere, the circulation of former Hurricane Linda was approaching Hawaii. At 2:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of former Hurricane Linda was located at latitude 21.0°N and longitude 154.8°W which put it about 115 miles (185 km) east of Wailuku,, Hawaii. It was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb. The circulation of former Hurricane Linda will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Hawaii during the next several days.

Hurricane Linda Strengthens Back to Cat. 2

Hurricane Linda strengthened back to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Linda was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 129.5°W which put it about 1315 miles (2115 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Linda was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

The circulation around Hurricane Linda continued to be very symmetrical. A large, circular was present at the center of Linda. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and a few thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Linda. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Linda. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Linda will move through an environment that will become more unfavorable for a strong hurricane during the next several days. Linda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Cooler water will supply less energy for Hurricane Linda and it will weaken. However, symmetrical hurricanes tend to be nearly in balance with their environment. Since there will be little vertical wind shear, Hurricane Linda is likely to weaken very gradually at first. Linda will move into a region where there is more vertical wind shear later this week and it will weaken faster when that happens.

Hurricane Linda will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean during the next few days. The high pressure system will steer Linda toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track Hurricane Linda will continue to move toward the Central Pacific. Linda could be northeast of Hawaii by the weekend.