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Bud Weakens to a Tropical Depression

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Former Tropical Storm Bud weakened to a tropical depression on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Bud was located at latitude 19.2°N and longitude 120.5°W which put the center about 730 miles (1175 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Bud was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Bud weakened to a tropical depression over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Friday.  Bud moved over cooler water where the air was also cooler and more stable.  The cooler, more stable environment caused all of the thunderstorms in Bud’s circulation to dissipate.  The bands revolving around the center of Tropical Depression Bud consisted entirely of showers and lower clouds.  When the thunderstorms dissipated, Bud stopped producing upper level divergence.  When the upper level divergence stopped, the surface pressure increased.

Tropical Depression Bud will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Bud will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  Tropical Depression Bud will remain in a cooler, more stable environment.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Southwest U.S. and northern Mexico.  The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bud’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.   The cool, stable environment and the vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Depression Bud to continue to weaken.

Tropical Depression Bud will move around the southern side of the subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bud toward the west during the next 36 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Bud will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Storm Bud Strengthens

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Tropical Storm Bud strengthened over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Thursday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 115.7°W which put the center about 490 miles (790 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Bud was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Bud strengthened on Thursday.  A weather station at Isla Clarion reported a sustained wind speed of 56 m.p.h. (91 km/h).  Even though Tropical Storm Bud strengthened, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern and western parts of Bud’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern and northern parts of Tropical Storm Bud consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms southwest of the center of Bud generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Bud was small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Bud’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Bud will move through an environment that will be marginal for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bud will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Southwest U.S. and northern Mexico.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bud’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  If the wind shear gets any stronger, Tropical Storm Bud will start to weaken.  Bud will move over cooler water later on Friday.

Tropical Storm Bud will move around the southern side of the subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bud toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bud will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Storm Bud Forms South of Baja California

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Tropical Storm Bud formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 112.2°W which put the center about 425 miles (690 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Bud was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California strengthened on Wednesday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Bud.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Bud’s circulation on Wednesday afternoon.  Those thunderstorms generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  Thunderstorms also formed in bands in the southern and western parts of Tropical Storm Bud.  Bands in the eastern and northern parts of Bud’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the southern half of Tropical Storm Bud.  The winds in the northern half of Bud’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Bud will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bud will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Southwest U.S. and northern Mexico.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bud’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification but the shear may not be enough to prevent some strengthening.  Tropical Storm Bud could intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Bud will move around the southern side of the subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bud toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bud will move farther away from Baja California.

 

Former Tropical Storm Ramon Weakens

Former Tropical Storm Ramon weakened over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Sunday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of former Tropical Storm Ramon was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 123.9°W which put it about 1085 miles (1750 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Ramon was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A large upper level trough over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean produced strong southwesterly winds that blew the top off of former Tropical Storm Ramon. The remaining circulation of former Tropical Storm Ramon in the lower levels consisted primarily of bands of showers and lower clouds. Strong upper level winds blew the tops off of any clouds that rose higher in the atmosphere.

Former Tropical Storm Ramon will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Ramon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C. However, the large upper level trough over the Eastern North Pacific will continue to produce strong southwesterly winds. Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will cause formed Tropical Storm Ramon to weaken during the next 36 hours.

Since the circulation of former Tropical Storm Ramon only exists in the lower levels of the atmosphere, it will be steered by the winds near the surface of the Earth. Former Tropical Storm Ramon will move south of a surface high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific. The high pressure system will steer former Tropical Storm Ramon toward the west during the next 36 hours.

TD 20E Strengthens to Tropical Storm Ramon

Former Tropical Depression Twenty-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Ramon over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Friday evening. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Ramon was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 122.6°W which put it about 1040 miles (1675 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Ramon was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Former Tropical Depression Twenty-E exhibited more organization on Friday evening and the U.S. National Hurricane Center upgraded it to Tropical Storm Ramon. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Storm Ramon was still asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Ramon’s circulation. Bands in the western side of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The distribution of wind speeds was also asymmetrical, Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the eastern side of Ramon’s circulation. The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Ramon were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ramon will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Ramon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C. It will move under the eastern part of an upper level trough over the Eastern North Pacific. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ramon’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but it may not be strong enough to prevent some further intensification during the next 12 hours. Tropical Storm Ramon could intensify a little during the first half of Saturday. The upper level winds are forecast to get stronger later on Saturday. Stronger upper level winds would cause the vertical wind shear to increase. More wind shear would cause Tropical Storm Ramon to start to weaken.

Tropical Storm Ramon will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ramon slowly toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ramon will remain far to the southwest of Baja California.

Tropical Depression 20E Forms Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Depression Twenty-E (20E) formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Thursday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-E was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 121.9°W which put it about 1090 miles (1755 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The tropical depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean strengthened on Thursday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Twenty-E. Tropical Depression 20E had a well defined low level circulation, but it was in an environment of strong vertical wind shear. The tropical depression was under the eastern part of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge was producing northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of the tropical depression. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear was causing the distribution of thunderstorms to be asymmetrical. Bands near the center of Tropical Depression 20E and in the northwestern part of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Some thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Twenty-E will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will continue to cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. The northwesterly winds in the upper levels could weaken a little on Friday. Tropical Depression Twenty-E could intensify a little during the next 24 hours, if the wind shear decreases.

Tropical Depression Twenty-E will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Twenty-E will remain far to the southwest of Baja California.

Former Tropical Storm Pilar Weakens

Former Tropical Storm Pilar weakened on Sunday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of former Tropical Storm Pilar was located at latitude 10.7°N and longitude 114.8°W which put it about 900 miles (1450 km) south-southwest of Baja California. Pilar was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

An upper level trough west of Baja California produced strong southwesterly winds that blew across the top of former Tropical Storm Pilar. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear and they blew the upper and middle portions of Pilar’s circulation northeast of the circulation in the lower levels. Although there was still a well defined circulation in the lower levels of the atmosphere, the circulation of former Tropical Storm Pilar consisted of showers and lower clouds. The wind shear blew the tops off of any clouds that rose higher into the atmosphere.

Former Tropical Storm Pilar will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Pilar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level trough west of Baja California will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will prevent inhibit intensification. The lower level circulation of former Tropical Storm Pilar will spin down gradually during the next several days.

Former Tropical Storm Pilar will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Pilar toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track, former Tropical Storm Pilar will remain far to the southwest of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Pilar Keeps Moving West

Tropical Storm Pilar kept moving westward over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Saturday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was located at latitude 10.5°N and longitude 111.6°W which put it about 865 miles (1390 km) south of Baja California. Pilar was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Pilar strengthened a little on Saturday as it continued to move westward south of Baja California. More thunderstorms formed in bands that were revolving around the center of Pilar’s circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northern part of Tropical Storm Pilar. The winds in the southern side of Pilar’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Pilar will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Pilar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Pilar’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Pilar could strengthen on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Pilar will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Pilar toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Pilar will remain far to the south of Baja California on Sunday.

Hurricane Norma Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Baja California

Hurricane Norma brought wind and rain to the southern part of Baja California on Saturday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Norma was located at latitude 22.9°N and longitude 110.3°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) west of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Norma was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Todos Santos to Los Barriles, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Cabo San Lucas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Todos Santos to Santa Fe, Mexico and from Los Barriles to San Evaristo, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Topolobampo to Mazatlan, Mexico.

Hurricane Norma brought strong winds and locally heavy rain to the southern part of Baja California on Saturday afternoon. A weather station in Cabo San Lucas reported a sustained wind speed of 55 m.p.h. (89 km/h) and a wind gust of 72 m.p.h. (116 km/h). A weather radar in Cabo San Lucas showed heavy rain falling over the southern end of Baja California.

Hurricane Norma weakened as it approached the southern end of Baja California on Saturday. An upper level trough west of Baja California produced southwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Norma’s circulation. Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear caused Hurricane Norma to weaken.

The center of Hurricane Norma was just offshore to the west of Cabo San Lucas on Saturday afternoon. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Norma’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 12.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 24.2. Hurricane Norma was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Hanna when Hanna hit south Texas in 2020.

The upper level trough west of Baja California will steer Hurricane Norma toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Norma will move across the southern end of Baja California. Norma will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Baja California during the next 18 hours. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Norma will weaken to a tropical storm while it moves across the southern end of Baja California. Norma will move across the southern part of the Gulf of California on Sunday. Norma will approach the west coast of Mexico between Topolobampo and Mazatlan on Sunday afternoon. Norma could also drop heavy rains over Sinaloa.

Hurricane Norma Approaches Baja California

Hurricane Norma approached the southern end of Baja California on Friday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Norma was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 109.8°W which put it about 195 miles (310 km) south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Norma was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Todos Santos to Los Barriles, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Cabo San Lucas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Todos Santos to Santa Fe, Mexico and from Los Barriles to San Evaristo, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Topolobampo to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico.

Hurricane Norma was still a major hurricane as it approached the southern end of Baja California on Friday afternoon. A circular eye with a diameter of 18 miles (30 km) was at the center of Norma’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Norma. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Hurricane Norma. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Norma’s circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.4. Hurricane Norma was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Hurricane Norma will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Norma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, an upper level trough west of Baja California will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Norma’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will cause Hurricane Norma will to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Norma will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Norma toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Norma will approach the southern end of Baja California on Saturday morning. Norma will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern end of Baja California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Hurricane Norma could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters along the coast at the southern end of Baja California.