Tag Archives: Baja California

Hurricane Lowell Intensifies Back to Cat. 5

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Hurricane Lowell intensified back to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved south-southwest of Hawaii on Friday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Lowell was located at latitude 13.3°N and longitude 161.4°W which put the center about 615 miles (990 km) south-southwest of Lihue, Hawaii.  Lowell was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 922 mb.

Hurricane Lowell strengthened back to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Friday evening.  A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was at the center of Lowell’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Lowell.  Storms near the center generated stronger upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of more mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere caused the surface pressure to decrease on Friday.

The distribution of wind speeds in Hurricane Lowell was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Lowell’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Hurricane Lowell.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Lowell is 35.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 18.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 53.9.  Hurricane Lowell is similar in intensity to Hurricane Maria when Maria hit Puerto Rico in 2017.

Hurricane Lowell will move through an environment favorable for a strong hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Lowell will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind wind shear.  Hurricane Lowell is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Lowell will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Central North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Lowell toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Lowell will remain south-southwest of Hawaii on Saturday.  Lowell is forecast to start moving toward the north during the weekend.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Karina continued to weaken gradually east of Hawaii and Hurricane Marie was spinning southwest of Baja California.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Karina was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 141.9°W which put the center about 860 miles (1380 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Karina was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Marie was located at latitude 20.8°N and longitude 119.0°W which put the center about 600 miles (965 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Marie was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Hurricane Lowell Strengthens Back to Cat. 4

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Hurricane Lowell strengthened back to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved south-southwest of Hawaii on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Lowell was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 160.79°W which put the center about 615 miles (985 km) south-southwest of Lihue, Hawaii.  Lowell was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 926 mb.

Hurricane Lowell strengthened back to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Friday after weakening on Thursday night.  A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was at the center of Lowell’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Lowell.  Storms near the center generated stronger upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of more mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere caused the surface pressure to decrease on Friday.

An eyewall replacement cycle cause the size of the circulation around Hurricane Lowell to increase.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Lowell’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Hurricane Lowell.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Lowell is 31.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 18.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 50.5. Hurricane Lowell is similar in intensity to Hurricane Ida when Ida hit southeast Louisiana in 2021.  Lowell is larger than Ida was.

Hurricane Lowell will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lowell will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind wind shear.  Hurricane Lowell is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.  Lowell could strengthen back to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Lowell will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Central North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Lowell toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Lowell will remain south-southwest of Hawaii on Saturday.  Lowell is forecast to start moving toward the north during the weekend.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Karina continued to weaken gradually  east of Hawaii and Hurricane Marie was spinning southwest of Baja California.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Karina was located at latitude 20.6°N and longitude 141.1°W which put the center about 910 miles (1465 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Karina was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Marie was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 118.6°W which put the center about 590 miles (950 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Marie was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Hurricane Lowell Moves South of Hawaii

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Hurricane Lowell moved south of Hawaii on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Lowell was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 158.9°W which put the center about 590 miles (945 km) south of Lihue, Hawaii.  Lowell was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 943 mb.

Hurricane Lowell weakened a little on Thursday as it moved south of Hawaii.  An eyewall replacement cycle may have led to the weakening of Lowell.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was still at the center of Lowell’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Lowell.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  An accumulation of mass caused the surface pressure to increase on Thursday.

The eyewall replacement cycle cause the size of the circulation around Hurricane Lowell to increase.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Lowell’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Hurricane Lowell.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Lowell is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 39.7.  Hurricane Lowell is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Hurricane Lowell will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lowell will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind wind shear.  Hurricane Lowell could intensify during the next 24 hours after the eyewall replacement cycle is fully completed.

Hurricane Lowell will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Central North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Lowell toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Lowell will remain south of Hawaii on Friday.  Lowell is forecast to start moving toward the north by the end of the weekend.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Karina continued to weaken gradually and Hurricane Marie intensified to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Karina was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 138.4°W which put the center about 1085 miles (1745 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Karina was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Marie was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 116.3°W which put the center about 470 miles (755 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Marie was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Hurricane Lowell Intensifies to Cat. 5

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Hurricane Lowell intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved south of Hawaii on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Lowell was located at latitude 13.3°N and longitude 154.3°W which put the center about 445 miles (715 km) south Hilo, Hawaii.  Lowell was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 927 mb.

Hurricane Lowell intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Wednesday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Lowell’s circulation the eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Lowell.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Lowell was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Lowell’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Lowell.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Lowell is 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 11.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 46.5.  Hurricane Lowell is similar in intensity to Hurricane MIchael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.  Lowell is a little smaller than Michael was.

Hurricane Lowell will move through an environment favorable for a strong hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Lowell will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind wind shear.  Hurricane Lowell could intensify during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.

Hurricane Lowell will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Central North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Lowell toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Lowell will remain south of Hawaii on Thursday.

Elsewhere, Major Hurricane Karina continued to move westward and Tropical Storm Marie intensified gradually on Wednesday.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Karina was located at latitude 18.9°N and longitude 133.8°W which put the center about 1390 miles (2235 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.   Karina was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 943 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 112.5°W which put the center about 380 miles (610 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Marie was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Storm Marie Forms Southwest of Mexico

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Tropical Storm Marie formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 110.3°W which put the center about 470 miles (755 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Marie was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico strengthened on Tuesday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Marie.

Tropical Storm Marie intensified steadily on Tuesday.  Numerous thunderstorms developed near the center of Marie’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Marie.  Storms near the center of Marie generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Marie was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Marie’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Marie will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Marie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind wind shear.  Tropical Storm Marie will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Marie could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Storm Marie will strengthen to a hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Marie will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system that is centered over the southwest U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Marie toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Marie will move southwest of Baja California.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Lowell rapidly intensified to a major hurricane south-southeast of Hawaii and Hurricane Karina continued to be Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Lowell was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 151.2°W which put the center about 500 miles (805 km) south-southeast Hilo, Hawaii.  Lowell was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 953 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Karina was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 130.8°W which put the center about 1385 miles (2230 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Karina was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

Karina and Lowell Churn Westward

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Hurricane Karina and Tropical Storm Lowell were churning westward over the North Pacific Ocean on Monday evening.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Karina was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 126.6°W which put the center about 1135 miles (1830 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Karina was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

Hurricane Karina maintained its intensity on Monday as it churned west over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Karina’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Karina’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Karina generated upper level divergence that pumped large amounts of mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure was nearly constant on Monday.

The distribution of wind speeds in Hurricane Karina was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Karina’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Hurricane Karina.

Hurricane Karina will move through an environment favorable for a strong hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Karina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Karina is likely to maintain its intensity on Tuesday.

Hurricane Karina will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Karina toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Karina will continue to move farther away from Baja California.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Lowell intensified gradually on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was located at latitude 13.0°N and longitude 147.4°W which put the center about 690 miles (1110 km) southeast Hilo, Hawaii.  Lowell was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Karina Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

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Hurricane Karina rapidly intensified to a major hurricane on Sunday evening as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Karina was located at latitude 17.2°N and longitude 123.4°W which put the center about 960 miles (1545 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Karina was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Hurricane Karina rapidly intensified to a major hurricane on Sunday evening.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Karina’s circulation.  A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) formed at the center of Hurricane Karina.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Karina’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Karina generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large amounts of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The inner core of Hurricane Karina was very small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Karina’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 205 miles (335 km) from the center of Hurricane Karina.

Hurricane Karina will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Karina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, there is a mass of drier air just to the west and north of Hurricane Karina.  The drier air will inhibit intensification of Karina, but the drier air probably will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Karina is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.  Karina could continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours, if the drier air does not get pulled into its circulation.

Hurricane Karina will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Karina toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Karina will move farther away from Baja California.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Lowell moved over the Central Pacific Ocean.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was located at latitude 13.3°N and longitude 141.8°W which put the center about 985 miles (1585 km) east-southeast Hilo, Hawaii.  Lowell was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Karina Strengthens to a Hurricane

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Former Tropical Storm Karina strengthened to a hurricane as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Saturday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Karina was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 121.1°W which put the center about 820 miles (1325 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Karina was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Karina strengthened to a hurricane on Saturday night.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center of Karina’s circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Hurricane Karina.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Hurricane Karina was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were mostly occurring in bands in the southern half of Karina’s circulation.  Bands in the northern half of Hurricane Karina consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Karina generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of Hurricane Karina.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Karina’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of Hurricane Karina.

Hurricane Karina will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Karina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, there is a mass of drier air just to the west and north of Hurricane Karina.  The drier air will inhibit intensification of Karina, but the drier air probably will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Karina is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.  Karina could intensify rapidly at times, if the drier air does not get pulled into its circulation.  Karina strengthen to a major hurricane by Monday morning.

Hurricane Karina will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Karina toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Karina will move farther away from Baja California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Lowell was moving west toward the Central Pacific.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 139.1°W which put the center about 1150 miles (1850 km) east-southeast Hilo, Hawaii.  Lowell was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storms Karina and Lowell Form over Eastern North Pacific

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Tropical Storms Karina and Lowell formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located at latitude 11.1°N and longitude 111.9°W which put the center about 825 miles (1330 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Karina was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Two low pressure systems over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean strengthened on Thursday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the systems as Tropical Storm Karina and Tropical Storm Lowell.

Thunderstorms were developing in bands in the southern and eastern parts of Tropical Storm Karina.  Bands in the northwestern part of Karina’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Karina generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern part of Tropical Storm Karina.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 205 miles (335 km) in the northern side of Karina’s circulation.  The winds in the southern side of Tropical Storm Karina were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Karina will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Karina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Karina will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Karina could strengthen to a hurricane by Saturday morning.

Tropical Storm Karina will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is centered over the Southwest U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Karina toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Karina will move far to the southwest of Baja California.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 133.8°W which put the center about 1765 miles (2840 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Lowell was moving toward the east-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Lowell is forecast to move west toward the Central North Pacific Ocean and to strengthen to a hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Iselle Weakens

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Tropical Storm Iselle weakened on Tuesday as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located at latitude 21.3°N and longitude 122.5°W which put the center about 815 miles (1310 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Iselle was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Storm Iselle weakened on Tuesday.  An upper level trough west of the West Coast of the U.S. was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Iselle’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear was causing Tropical Storm Iselle to weaken.

The vertical wind shear was also causing the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Iselle to be asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Iselle’s circulation.  Bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Iselle consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Iselle generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Tuesday.

The effects of the vertical wind shear also caused the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Iselle to be asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) in the eastern side of Iselle’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) in the western side of Tropical Storm Iselle.

Tropical Storm Iselle will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Iselle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will continue to move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is west of the West Coast of the U.S.  The upper level trough will continue to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Iselle’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  In addition, Iselle will move into a mass of drier air that is west of Baja California.  Tropical Storm Iselle will  continue to weaken on Wednesday because of the effects of the vertical wind shear and the drier air.

Tropical Storm Iselle will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Iselle toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipate track, Tropical Storm Iselle will move farther away from Baja California.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Lala continued to weaken slowly far to the northwest of Hawaii.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Lala was located at latitude 35.2°N and longitude 177.6°W which put the center about 470 miles (760 km) north of Kure Atoll.  Lala was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.