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Tropical Storm Ileana Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Baja California

Tropical Storm Ileana brought gusty winds and rain to the southern part of Baja California on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located at latitude 22.7°N and longitude 109.4°W which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) east-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.   Ileana was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (9 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Santa Fe to San Evaristo, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Cabo San Lucas and La Paz.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Evaristo to Loreto, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Topolobampo to Huatabampito, Mexico.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Ileana was not particularly well organized on Friday afternoon.  The northwestern part of Illeana’s circulation was passing over the southern end of Baja California.  The flow of air over land may have been disrupting the circulation.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Ileana.  Easterly winds pushing air up slopes in southern Baja California may have been contributing to the development of thunderstorms in that part of Ileana’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Ileana generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Ileana was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the eastern side of Ileana’s circulation.  The winds in the western part of Tropical Storm Ileana were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ileana will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ileana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough over the Southwest U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ileana’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Storm Ileana is likely to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.  The center of Ileana’s circulation could move across the southeastern tip of Baja California, which would also cause Tropical Storm Ileana to weaken.

Tropical Storm Ileana will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Ileana toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Ileana will move across the southeastern tip of Baja California and over the southern Gulf of California.

Tropical Storm Ileana will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern part of Baja California during the next 24 hours.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

 

Tropical Storm Ileana Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Ileana formed south of Baja California on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located at latitude 19.9°N and longitude 108.0°W which put the center about 240 miles (385 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Ileana was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Santa Fe to San Evaristo, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Cabo San Lucas and La Paz.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Evaristo to Loreto, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Topolobampo to Huatabampito, Mexico.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California strengthened on Thursday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Ileana.  More thunderstorms were developing near the center of Ileana’s circulation.  However, the distribution of theunderstorms in Tropical Storm Ileana was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Ileana’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of Ileana consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Ileana was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Ileana’s circulation.  The winds in the other parts of Ileana were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ileana will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ileana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ileana’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Ileana is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Ileana will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Ileana toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ileana will reach the southern end of Baja California on Friday morning.

Tropical Storm Ileana will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern part of Baja California.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Norma Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Baja California

Hurricane Norma brought wind and rain to the southern part of Baja California on Saturday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Norma was located at latitude 22.9°N and longitude 110.3°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) west of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Norma was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Todos Santos to Los Barriles, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Cabo San Lucas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Todos Santos to Santa Fe, Mexico and from Los Barriles to San Evaristo, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Topolobampo to Mazatlan, Mexico.

Hurricane Norma brought strong winds and locally heavy rain to the southern part of Baja California on Saturday afternoon. A weather station in Cabo San Lucas reported a sustained wind speed of 55 m.p.h. (89 km/h) and a wind gust of 72 m.p.h. (116 km/h). A weather radar in Cabo San Lucas showed heavy rain falling over the southern end of Baja California.

Hurricane Norma weakened as it approached the southern end of Baja California on Saturday. An upper level trough west of Baja California produced southwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Norma’s circulation. Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear caused Hurricane Norma to weaken.

The center of Hurricane Norma was just offshore to the west of Cabo San Lucas on Saturday afternoon. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Norma’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 12.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 24.2. Hurricane Norma was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Hanna when Hanna hit south Texas in 2020.

The upper level trough west of Baja California will steer Hurricane Norma toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Norma will move across the southern end of Baja California. Norma will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Baja California during the next 18 hours. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Norma will weaken to a tropical storm while it moves across the southern end of Baja California. Norma will move across the southern part of the Gulf of California on Sunday. Norma will approach the west coast of Mexico between Topolobampo and Mazatlan on Sunday afternoon. Norma could also drop heavy rains over Sinaloa.

Hurricane Norma Approaches Baja California

Hurricane Norma approached the southern end of Baja California on Friday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Norma was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 109.8°W which put it about 195 miles (310 km) south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Norma was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Todos Santos to Los Barriles, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Cabo San Lucas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Todos Santos to Santa Fe, Mexico and from Los Barriles to San Evaristo, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Topolobampo to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico.

Hurricane Norma was still a major hurricane as it approached the southern end of Baja California on Friday afternoon. A circular eye with a diameter of 18 miles (30 km) was at the center of Norma’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Norma. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Hurricane Norma. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Norma’s circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.4. Hurricane Norma was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Hurricane Norma will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Norma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, an upper level trough west of Baja California will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Norma’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will cause Hurricane Norma will to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Norma will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Norma toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Norma will approach the southern end of Baja California on Saturday morning. Norma will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern end of Baja California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Hurricane Norma could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters along the coast at the southern end of Baja California.

Norma Prompts Hurricane Warning for Baja California

The potential risk posed by Hurricane Norma prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Warning for the southern part of Baja California. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Norma was located at latitude 18.2°N and longitude 108.1°W which put it about 345 miles (555 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Norma was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Todos Santos to Los Barriles, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Cabo San Lucas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Los Islas Marias. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the portions of the coast from Todos Santos to Santa Fe, Mexico and from Los Barriles to La Paz, Mexico.

Hurricane Norma weakened slowly on Thursday evening. An upper level trough west of Baja California was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Norma’s circulation. Those winds were causing the vertical wind shear to increase. The eye at the center of Hurricane Norma was less distinct on satellite images. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Norma’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Hurricane Norma. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Norma’s circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Norma was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.6. Hurricane Norma was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit southwest Louisiana in 2020.

Hurricane Norma will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Norma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level trough west of Baja California will continue to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Norma’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will cause Hurricane Norma will to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Norma will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Norma toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Norma could approach the southern end of Baja California on Friday night. Norma will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the southern end of Baja California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Olaf Strengthens to a Hurricane Southeast of Baja California

Former Tropical Storm Olaf strengthened to a hurricane southeast of Baja California on Thursday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Olaf was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 108.3°W which put it about 155 miles (250 km) southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Olaf was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Hurricane Warning Was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Sante Fe, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Cabo San Lucas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico and from Los Barriles to San Evaristo, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Olaf intensified quickly to a hurricane during the past 24 hours. A circular eye formed at the center of Hurricane Olaf. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Olaf. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) on the eastern side of Olaf. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Olaf will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Olaf will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29˚C. It will move south of an upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Olaf’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification of Hurricane Olaf. Olaf will strengthen during the next 12 hours and there is a chance it could intensify to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Olaf will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high will steer Olaf toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Olaf will approach the southern end of Baja California on Thursday night. Olaf will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Baja California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Hurricane Olaf will also cause a storm surge along the southern end of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Olaf Develops West of Mexico

Tropical Storm Olaf developed west of Mexico on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located at latitude 18.9°N and longitude 107.5°W which put it about 315 miles (510 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Olaf was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Santa Fe, Mexico.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Fifteen-E strengthened on Wednesday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Olaf. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of Olaf. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Olaf. The winds were blowing at less than tropical storm force in the other parts of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Olaf will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Olaf will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29˚C. It will move south of an upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Olaf’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification of Tropical Storm Olaf. Olaf will strengthen during the next 24 hours and there is a chance it could intensify to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Olaf will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high will steer Olaf toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Olaf could approach the southern end of Baja California on Thursday. Olaf could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern Baja California.

Hurricane Genevieve Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 4

Hurricane Genevieve rapidly intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Genevieve was located at latitude 17.7°N and longitude 107.6°W which put it about 390 miles (630 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  Genevieve was moving toward the northwest a 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Todos Santos, Mexico.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to La Paz and from Todos Santos to Sante Fe, Mexico.

Hurricane Genevieve continued to intensify rapidly during the past 24 hours and it reached Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) formed at the center of Genevieve.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Genevieve.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane in all directions.

The circulation around Hurricane Genevieve increased in size during the past 24 hours.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Genevieve was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.0.

Hurricane Genevieve will move through an environment very favorable for strong hurricanes during the next 24 hours.  Genevieve will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Genevieve could strengthen further during the next 24 hours.  If a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could occur.  The eyewall replacement cycle would cause Hurricane Genevieve to weaken.

Hurricane Genevieve will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico.  The high will steer Genevieve toward the northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Genevieve will pass west of Baja California.  However, Genevieve could come close enough to the coast to bring tropical storm force winds and locally heavy rain to the southern portion of Baja California.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.