Tag Archives: Hurricane Olaf

Hurricane Olaf Makes Landfall on Southern Tip of Baja California

Hurricane Olaf made landfall on southern tip of Baja California on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Olaf was located at latitude 23.0°N and longitude 109.6°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) east-northeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Olaf was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

A Hurricane Warning Was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Cabo San Lucas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito, Mexico and from Los Barriles to Loreto, Mexico.

The eye of Hurricane Olaf made landfall on the southern tip of Baja California near San Jose del Cabo on Thursday night. Olaf continued to intensify right up until the center moved ashore. Hurricane Olaf strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale prior to landfall. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Olaf. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Olaf was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.0

Hurricane Olaf was capable of causing regional serious damage. Olaf will produce strong winds over the southern part of Baja California. Wind damage could cause widespread power outages. Hurricane Olaf will also drop heavy rain over the region and flash floods are likely to occur. Hurricane Olaf will move northwest over Baja California during the next 24 hours. Mountains will begin to disrupt the circulation and Olaf will weaken. The area of heavy rain will move northward, as will the risk for flash floods.

Olaf Strengthens to a Hurricane Southeast of Baja California

Former Tropical Storm Olaf strengthened to a hurricane southeast of Baja California on Thursday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Olaf was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 108.3°W which put it about 155 miles (250 km) southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Olaf was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Hurricane Warning Was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Sante Fe, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Cabo San Lucas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico and from Los Barriles to San Evaristo, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Olaf intensified quickly to a hurricane during the past 24 hours. A circular eye formed at the center of Hurricane Olaf. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Olaf. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) on the eastern side of Olaf. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Olaf will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Olaf will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29˚C. It will move south of an upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Olaf’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification of Hurricane Olaf. Olaf will strengthen during the next 12 hours and there is a chance it could intensify to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Olaf will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high will steer Olaf toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Olaf will approach the southern end of Baja California on Thursday night. Olaf will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Baja California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Hurricane Olaf will also cause a storm surge along the southern end of Baja California.

Olaf Becomes a Cat. 4 Hurricane

Hurricane Olaf intensified rapidly on Monday and it reached Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Olaf was located at latitude 10.1°N and longitude 139.5°W which put it about 1235 miles (1985 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Olaf was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Olaf is a small but well organized hurricane.  The core is very symmetrical.  Hurricane Olaf has a clear eye with a diameter of about 12 miles (19 km/h) and the eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Several spiral rainbands are rotating around the inner core of the hurricane.  Upper level outflow channels to the northeast and southwest of Olaf are carrying mass away from the center of circulation, which is allowing the surface pressure to decrease.

Hurricane Olaf is moving just south of a band of stronger upper level westerly winds.  It is in an area of modest vertical wind shear.  The ocean beneath Hurricane Olaf has Sea Surface Temperatures  near 29°C.  The compact structure of Olaf allowed the hurricane to efficiently convert energy it extracted from the ocean to kinetic energy associated with higher wind speeds.  Olaf could remain in a favorable environment for another day or two, which may allow for further intensification.  However, if eyewall replacement cycles begin to occur, they will cause fluctuations in the intensity of Hurricane Olaf.

A subtropical ridge north of Olaf is steering the hurricane toward the west and that general steering motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  The western end of the subtropical ridge is expected to weaken later this week and that should allow Olaf to turn toward the north.  On its anticipated track, Olaf would turn toward the north before it reaches the Hawaiian Islands.

Olaf Becomes a Hurricane Between Baja and Hawaii

The core of the circulation of Olaf consolidated on Sunday and the National Hurricane Center upgraded it to a hurricane.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Olaf was located at latitude 9.5°N and longitude 133.2°W which put it about 1620 miles (2610 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Olaf was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The circulation of Hurricane Olaf consists of a small core of thunderstorms around the center of circulation and a primary rainband that spirals around the western and southern sides of the hurricane.  The core of thunderstorms is producing some upper level divergence, but upper level winds are inhibiting the outflow on the western side of the center.

Hurricane Olaf is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C and there is plenty of energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  However, an upper level trough north of Olaf is producing westerly winds which are blowing over the top of the hurricane.  The upper level winds are blocking upper level outflow on the western side of Olaf and the vertical wind shear is inhibiting the intensification of Olaf.  If the wind shear decreases, then further intensification will be possible.

A subtropical ridge is steering Hurricane Olaf toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  When Olaf reaches the western end of the ridge, it will start to turn more toward the north.