Tag Archives: Cabo San Lucas

Olaf Weakens to Tropical Storm over Southern Baja California

Former Hurricane Olaf weakened to a tropical storm when it passed over southern Baja California on Friday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located at latitude 24.5°N and longitude 112.2°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico. Olaf was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto San Andresito to Loreto. The Tropical Storm Warning included Cabo San Lucas and La Paz.

Former Hurricane Olaf weakened on Friday when the circulation passed over mountains in the southern part of Baja California. The low level center of circulation of Tropical Storm Olaf was visible on satellite images. The low level center was back over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean near Cabo San Lazaro. There were mainly showers and lower clouds near the low level center. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern side of Olaf that were over Baja California and the Gulf of California. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation. A weather station in Puerto Cortes, Mexico recently reported a sustained wind speed of 44 m.p.h. (70 km/h) and a wind gust of 53 m.p.h. (85 km/h).

Tropical Storm Olaf will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Olaf will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 25˚C. The air over the cooler water is drier and more stable. Drier, more stable air will inhibit the develop of thunderstorms. If new thunderstorms do not form near the center of Tropical Storm Olaf during the next 12 hours, it will gradually weaken. Olaf is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Saturday.

The future track of Tropical Storm Olaf will depend on how fast Olaf weakens. If no new thunderstorms develop near the center of Olaf, then the tropical storm will be steered by the winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. A surface high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean is forecast to steer Tropical Storm Olaf toward the west-southwest during the weekend. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Olaf will gradually move away from Baja California.

Hurricane Olaf Makes Landfall on Southern Tip of Baja California

Hurricane Olaf made landfall on southern tip of Baja California on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Olaf was located at latitude 23.0°N and longitude 109.6°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) east-northeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Olaf was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

A Hurricane Warning Was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Cabo San Lucas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito, Mexico and from Los Barriles to Loreto, Mexico.

The eye of Hurricane Olaf made landfall on the southern tip of Baja California near San Jose del Cabo on Thursday night. Olaf continued to intensify right up until the center moved ashore. Hurricane Olaf strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale prior to landfall. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Olaf. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Olaf was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.0

Hurricane Olaf was capable of causing regional serious damage. Olaf will produce strong winds over the southern part of Baja California. Wind damage could cause widespread power outages. Hurricane Olaf will also drop heavy rain over the region and flash floods are likely to occur. Hurricane Olaf will move northwest over Baja California during the next 24 hours. Mountains will begin to disrupt the circulation and Olaf will weaken. The area of heavy rain will move northward, as will the risk for flash floods.

Olaf Strengthens to a Hurricane Southeast of Baja California

Former Tropical Storm Olaf strengthened to a hurricane southeast of Baja California on Thursday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Olaf was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 108.3°W which put it about 155 miles (250 km) southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Olaf was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Hurricane Warning Was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Sante Fe, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Cabo San Lucas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico and from Los Barriles to San Evaristo, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Olaf intensified quickly to a hurricane during the past 24 hours. A circular eye formed at the center of Hurricane Olaf. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Olaf. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) on the eastern side of Olaf. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Olaf will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Olaf will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29˚C. It will move south of an upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Olaf’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification of Hurricane Olaf. Olaf will strengthen during the next 12 hours and there is a chance it could intensify to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Olaf will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high will steer Olaf toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Olaf will approach the southern end of Baja California on Thursday night. Olaf will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Baja California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Hurricane Olaf will also cause a storm surge along the southern end of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Olaf Develops West of Mexico

Tropical Storm Olaf developed west of Mexico on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located at latitude 18.9°N and longitude 107.5°W which put it about 315 miles (510 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Olaf was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Santa Fe, Mexico.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Fifteen-E strengthened on Wednesday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Olaf. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of Olaf. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Olaf. The winds were blowing at less than tropical storm force in the other parts of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Olaf will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Olaf will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29˚C. It will move south of an upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Olaf’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification of Tropical Storm Olaf. Olaf will strengthen during the next 24 hours and there is a chance it could intensify to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Olaf will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high will steer Olaf toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Olaf could approach the southern end of Baja California on Thursday. Olaf could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern Baja California.

Hurricane Nora Makes Landfall South of Puerto Vallarta

Hurricane Nora made landfall on the west coast of Mexico south of Puerto Vallarta on Saturday evening. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Nora was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 105.4°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) south-southwest of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. Nora was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Altata, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altata to Mazatlan, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altata to Mazatlan, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lucas to La Paz, Mexico.

The center of Hurricane Nora made landfall south of Puerto Vallarta near Vincente Guerrero, Mexico on Saturday evening. Hurricane force winds extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Nora at the time of landfall. Tropical storm force winds extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Hurricane Nora. Nora was dropping heavy rain on parts of Jalisco and Colima. The potential for flash floods was high.

Hurricane Nora is forecast to move toward the north along the west coast of Mexico. Nora is likely to weaken as the center moves along the coast. Hurricane Nora will pull drier air over Mexico into the circulation. The drier air will inhibit the development of thunderstorms. If the drier air gets to the core of Nora, it could dissipate. However, if the center of Hurricane Nora moves back over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, then Nora could maintain its intensity while it is over water. Nora would be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It would be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there would be little vertical wind shear.

Tropical Storm Enrique Moves over Gulf of California

Tropical Storm Enrique moved over the southern Gulf of California on Tuesday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located at latitude 23.8°N and longitude 109.1°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) northeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Enrique was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

The small circulation around Tropical Storm Enrique moved over the warmer water in the southern Gulf of California on Tuesday evening. New thunderstorms formed just to the east of the center of Enrique. Downdrafts in those thunderstorms transported stronger winds to the surface and Enrique maintained tropical storm intensity. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Enrique. Bands in the other quadrants of the circulation consisted of showers and lower clouds. The winds were blowing at less than tropical storm force in those parts of Enrique.

Tropical Storm Enrique will move through an environment that could allow it to maintain its intensity during the next few hours. Enrique will move over water in the Gulf of California where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Enrique is likely to weaken rapidly when the center moves over mountains in southern Baja California.

Tropical Storm Enrique will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico. The high will steer Enrique toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Enrique could pass near La Paz during the middle of Wednesday. Enrique could make landfall north of La Paz later on Wednesday. Tropical Storm Enrique will bring gusty winds and isolated heavy rainfall to parts of southeastern Baja California on Wednesday.

Enrique Moves away from Cabo Corrientes, Watch Issued for Baja California

Hurricane Enrique moved slowly away from Cabo Corrientes on Monday morning and a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for a portion of the coast of southern Baja California. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Enrique was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 106.7°W which put it about 65 miles (105 km) west of Cabo Corrietnes, Mexico. Enrique was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles, Mexico. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portions of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula and from Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Mita to San Blas, Mexico.

Hurricane Enrique was moving slowly away from Cabo Corrientes on Monday morning. Enrique began to weaken as it moved away from the west coast of Mexico. Drier air was wrapping into the core of Hurricane Enrique. The thunderstorms around the eye were not as tall and breaks appeared to be developing in the eyewall. The wind speed was decreasing slowly near the center of circulation. Thunderstorms were also not as strong in the bands revolving around the core of Enrique. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Hurricane Enrique will move through an environment that will be less favorable for a hurricane during the next several days. Enrique will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are cooler. It will move into a region where there is more drier air. The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, a combination of cooler water and drier air is likely to cause Hurricane Enrique to weaken gradually during the next 48 hours. Enrique could weaken to a tropical storm on Tuesday.

Hurricane Enrique will move around the southwestern part of a surface high pressure system during the next several days. The high will steer Enrique toward the northwest. On its anticipated track Hurricane Enrique will move away from the west coast of Mexico. Enrique could approach the southern end of Baja California on Tuesday night. It is likely to be a tropical storm when it reaches Baja California.

Hurricane Genevieve Brings Wind and Rain to Baja California

Hurricane Genevieve brought wind and rain to southern Baja California on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Genevieve was located at latitude 23.3°N and longitude 111.4°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  Genevieve was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to La Paz, Mexico.

The center of Hurricane Genevieve passed just southwest of the southern tip of Baja California on Thursday morning.  A weather station at the Cabo San Lucas Marina reported a wind gust of 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  Bands of thunderstorms were dropping heavy rain on parts of southern Baja California.  There were reports of flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Genevieve will weaken during the next several days as it moves over cooler water.  Genevieve will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are cooler than 26°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Genevieve will weaken gradually as it moves over cooler water.

Hurricane Genevieve will move around the southwestern part of a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico.  The ridge will steer Genevieve toward the northwest.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Genevieve will move parallel to the west coast of Baja California.  Genevieve will continue to bring gusty winds to the southern part of Baja California.  It will also drop move heavy rain and additional flash floods are likely.

Hurricane Lorena Near Cabo San Lucas

Hurricane Lorena moved near Cabo San Lucas, Mexico on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Lorena was located at latitude 23.2°N and longitude 109.3°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) northeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Lorena was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from La Paz to Puerto Cortes, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from La Paz to Santa Rosalia.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect from Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro and from La Paz to Santa Rosalia.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect from Topolobampo to Guaymas and from Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito.

The circulation around Hurricane Lorena strengthened quickly when it reached the very warm water at the southern end of the Gulf of Calfiornia.  A small circular eye developed at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the compact inner core of Hurricane Lorena.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The future intensity of Hurricane Lorena will depend entirely on its track.  If Hurricane Lorena moves over Baja California, it will weaken quickly when it moves over the mountains.  However, if the small circulation around Lorena remains over the very warm water in the Gulf of California, then the hurricane could strengthen further.  The numerical models have been trending toward keeping Hurricane Lorena over water for a longer period of time, but the center of the hurricane is very close to the southern end of Baja California.

Hurricane Lorena moved into a region where the steering currents are weak, which is why Lorena is nearly stationary.  The southern end of a trough over the western U.S. will try to steer Hurricane Lorena toward the north-northeast.  However, mountains in Baja California sometimes block westerly winds in the lower levels.  A slightly larger circulation around Tropical Storm Mario could pull Hurricane Lorena toward the west.  The future track of Hurricane Lorena is highly uncertain.  Hurricane Lorena could move over Baja California or it could move farther north into the Gulf of California.

The center of Tropical Storm Mario was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 110.0°W which put it about 340 miles (545 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Mario was moving toward the north at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.  The future of Tropical Storm Mario will depend on how much its circulation interacts with the circulation around Hurricane Lorena.  Mario is currently about 350 miles (565 km) south of Hurricane Lorena.

Tropical Storm Lorena Moves Toward Baja California

Tropical Storm Lorena moved toward Baja California on Thursday night after brushing the west coast of Mexico earlier in the day.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 107.7°W which put it about 145 miles (235 km) east-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from La Paz to Puerto Cortes, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect from La Paz to San Evaristo, Mexico.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect from San Evaristo to Loreto and from Puerto Cortes to Puerto San Evaristo.

When the center of former Hurricane Lorena passed near the west coast of Mexico, the eastern part of the circulation passes over mountains.  The mountains disrupted the flow of air and some drier air was pulled into the hurricane.  The disruption and drier air weakened the inner core of the circulation and caused Lorena to weaken to a tropical storm.  The inner core was beginning to redevelop on Thursday evening.  More thunderstorms were forming near the center of circulation and other thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Friday.  Lorena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Lorena is likely to strengthen back into a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move around the western part of a ridge of high pressure over Mexico.  The ridge will steer Lorena toward the northwest.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Lorena will interact with the circulation of Tropical Storm Mario which is southwest of Lorena.  It looked like Lorena was pulling Mario toward the northeast on Thursday night.  However, it is possible that Mario could tug Lorena more toward the west on Friday.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Lorena will approach the southern tip of Baja California on Friday afternoon.  Lorena is likely to be a hurricane at that time.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Mario was southwest of Lorena and Tropical Storm Kiko was between Baja California and Hawaii.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 110.2°W which put it about 265 miles (590 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Mario was moving toward the northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 129.6°W which put it about 1350 miles (2175 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kiko was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.