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Trudy Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

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Hurricane Trudy intensified to a major hurricane on Thursday night as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Trudy was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 102.5°W which put the center about 240 miles (385 km) southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  Trudy was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Zihuatanejo, Mexico.

Hurricane Trudy intensified to a major hurricane on Thursday night.

A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Hurricane Trudy.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Trudy’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Trudy generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Hurricane Trudy.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Trudy’ circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Trudy is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 20.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 42.4.  Hurricane Trudy is similar in intensity to Hurricane Milton when Milton hit Florida in 2024.  Trudy is not quite as large as Milton was.

Hurricane Trudy will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Trudy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Trudy will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Trudy will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Trudy toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Trudy will move closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Simon was weakening south of Baja California.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Simon was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 108.8°W which put the center about 210 miles (335 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Simon was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Polo Prompts Hurricane Warning for Baja California

A risk posed by Hurricane Polo prompted the government of Mexico to issue a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the west coast of Baja California on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 19.3°N and longitude 113.1°W which put the center about 325 miles (520 km) southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Sante Fe, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to Punta Abreojos, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San Evaristo, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to Punta Abreojos, Mexico.

Hurricane Polo weakened steadily on Saturday, but Polo was still a major hurricane on Saturday evening.  A circular eye was still present at the center of Polo’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Polo.  Storms near the center of Polo generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of more mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Saturday.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Polo increased on Saturday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

The Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 37.0.  Hurricane Polo is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Milton when Milton hit Florida in 2024.

Hurricane Polo will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, Polo will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is near the West Coast of the U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Polo’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Polo will continue to weaken on Sunday because of more vertical wind shear.

Hurricane Polo will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Polo toward the north during the next 24 hours.  The upper level trough that is near the West Coast of the U.S. will steer Polo toward the northeast on Monday.  Polo will reach southern Baja California on Monday.

Hurricane Polo will bring strong winds and heavy rain to southern Baja California.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, the upper level trough near the West Coast of the U.S. caused Hurricane Odalys to weaken on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Odalys was located at latitude 21.1°N and longitude 123.6°W which put the center about 885 miles (1425 km) west of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Odalys was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Hurricane Polo Strengthens Back to Cat. 5 Again

Hurricane Polo strengthened back to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale again early on Friday as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California.

At 9:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 108.2°W which put the center about 415 miles (665 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 215 m.p.h. (345 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 908 mb.

Hurricane Polo strengthened back to Category 5 early on Friday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Polo’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Polo.  Storms near the center of Polo generated upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of more mass in the upper levels caused the surface pressure to decrease again early  on Friday.

The circulation around Hurricane Polo was very symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

The Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 42.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 56.3.  Hurricane Polo is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dorian when Dorian hit the Bahamas in 2019.

Hurricane Polo will move through an environment that will be favorable for a  very powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is southwest of Mexico. The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Polo could intensify more during the next 24 hours unless another eyewall replacement cycle begins.  An upper level trough that is approaching the West Coast of the U.S. will start to cause more vertical wind shear during the weekend.  Hurricane Polo will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Hurricane Polo will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Polo toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Polo will move south of Baja California on Friday.   The upper level trough that is approaching the West Coast of the U.S. will steer Polo toward the northeast during the weekend.  Polo could reach southern Baja California on Monday.

A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for a portion of the coast of southern Baja California.

Hurricane Polo will bring strong winds and heavy rain to southern Baja California early next week.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Odalys intensified to a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Odalys was located at latitude 17.7°N and longitude 123.0°W which put the center about 975 miles (1570 km) west-southwest of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Odalys was moving toward the north-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 940 mb.

Priscilla Weakens to a Tropical Storm

Former Hurricane Priscilla weakened to a tropical storm over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Wednesday afternoon.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was located at latitude 21.7°N and longitude 112.7°W which put the center about 195 miles (310 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Priscilla was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.

Former Hurricane Priscilla rapidly weakened to a tropical storm south of Baja California on Wednesday.  Thunderstorms around the center of Priscilla’s circulation and in the northern half of the circulation weakened.  Bands in those parts of Tropical Storm Priscilla consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern and western periphery of Priscilla’s circulation.  Weakening of the thunderstorms near the core of Tropical Storm Priscilla greatly reduced the upper level divergence.  With much less upper level divergence the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere caused the surface pressure to increase.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Priscilla was still large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Priscilla’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Priscilla will move through an environment that will become even more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Priscilla will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  An upper level trough near the west coast of the U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Priscilla’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  The effects of cooler water and increasing vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Priscilla to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Priscilla will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Priscilla toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Priscilla will move west of Cabo San Lazaro on Thursday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Octave continued to gradually weaken far to the southwest of Baja California.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 116.2.°W which put the center about 660 miles (1065 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Octave was moving toward the east at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Hurricane Priscilla Starts to Weaken

Hurricane Priscilla started to weaken on Tuesday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Priscilla was located at latitude 20.6°N and longitude 111.5°W which put the center about 190 miles (305 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Priscilla was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.

Hurricane Priscilla started to weaken on Tuesday evening after Priscilla had strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale earlier in the day.  Hurricane Priscilla appeared to have mixed cooler water to the surface of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  A large eye with a diameter of 50 miles (80 km) was still present at the center of Priscilla’s circulation.  However, the ring of thunderstorms surrounding the eye was broken in several places.  Also, many of the thunderstorms in bands in the eastern side of Hurricane Priscilla had weakened.  The bands in the eastern part of Priscilla’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the western half of Hurricane Priscilla.

The circulation around Hurricane Priscilla was still large.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Priscilla’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of Hurricane Priscilla.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Priscilla was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.9.

Hurricane Priscilla will move through an environment that will become more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  An upper level trough near the west coast of the U.S. will start to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Priscilla’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to begin to increase.  In addition, the cooler water mixed to the surface of the ocean by Priscilla’s winds will limit the energy transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere.  The effects of cooler water and increasing vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Priscilla to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Priscilla will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Priscilla toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Priscilla will move parallel to the coast of southwestern Baja California on Wednesday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Octave weakened far to the southwest of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 118.0.°W which put the center about 750 miles (1205 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Octave was moving toward the east at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Hurricane Priscilla Moves South of Baja California

Hurricane Priscilla moved south of Baja California on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Priscilla was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 108.5°W which put the center about 275 miles (445 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  Priscilla was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.

Hurricane Priscilla was showing evidence of intensification on Monday evening.  New tall thunderstorms were forming just to the south of the center of Priscilla’s circulation.  Microwave satellite imagery was indicating that an eye might be forming at the center of Hurricane Priscilla.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center.  Storms near the center of Priscilla generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Priscilla was very large.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 50 miles (80 km) in the eastern side of Priscilla’s circulation.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the western side of Priscilla.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Hurricane Priscilla.

Hurricane Priscilla will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Priscilla will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Priscilla will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Priscilla could strengthen to a major hurricane on Tuesday.

Hurricane Priscilla will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Priscilla slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Priscilla will move closer to the southern part of Baja California on Tuesday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, former Hurricane Octave weakened back to a tropical storm on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located at latitude 15.8°N and longitude 120.4°W which put the center about 840 miles (1355 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Octave was moving toward the east-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Lorena Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Lorena intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Tuesday night.  The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the coast of Baja California.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Lorena was located at latitude 21.9°N and longitude 111.1°W which put the center about 105 miles (165 km) southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for a portion of the coast from Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lucas to Santa Fe, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Abreojos, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Lorena intensified to a hurricane on Tuesday night.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped part of the way around the center of Lorena’s circulation.  A small eye appeared to be forming at the center of Hurricane Lorena.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Lorena’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Lorena generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Lorena was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Lorena’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Hurricane Lorena.

Hurricane Lorena will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lorena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western part of the axis of an upper level ridge over Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Lorena will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Lorena could intensify rapidly at times on Wednesday.

Hurricane Lorena will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Lorena toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  Lorena is expected to move toward the north on Thursday.  On it anticipated track, Hurricane Lorena could approach the coast of Baja California between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia on Friday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Kiko continued to churn toward the west.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Kiko was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 130.1°W which put the center about 1700 miles (2735 km) east Hilo Hawaii.  Kiko was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

 

Lorena Prompts Tropical Storm Watch for Baja California

The risk posed by Tropical Storm Lorena prompted the government of Mexico to issue a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast of southern Baja California.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 109.0°W which put the center about 250 miles (400 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Lorena strengthened gradually on Tuesday afternoon.  Thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of Lorena’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Lorena.  Storms near the center of Lorena generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Lorena was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Lorena’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lorena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Lorena’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Lorena will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Lorena could strengthen to a hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Lorena toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Lorena will move south of Baja California during Tuesday night.  Lorena is expected to move toward the northeast later this week.  Tropical Storm Lorena could approach the coast of Baja California between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia on Friday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Kiko strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale far to the east of Hawaii.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Kiko was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 128.9°W which put the center about 1775 miles (2855 km) east Hilo Hawaii.  Kiko was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Lorena

Former Tropical Depression Twelve-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Lorena over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south-southeast of Baja California on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 107.9°W which put the center about 345 miles (550 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Former Tropical Depression Twelve-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Lorena on Tuesday morning.  New thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of Lorena’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Lorena.  Storms near the center of Lorena generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Lorena was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Lorena’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lorena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over Mexico. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Lorena’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Lorena will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Lorena toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Lorena will move south of Baja California during Tuesday night.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, former Tropical Storm Kiko intensified to a hurricane far to the east of Hawaii.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Kiko was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 128.3°W which put the center about 1815 miles (2920 km) east Hilo Hawaii.  Kiko was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Hurricane Flossie Weakens Rapidly

Hurricane Flossie weakened rapidly on Wednesday evening as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Flossie was located at latitude 19.8°N and longitude 110.2°W which put the center about 215 miles (345 km) south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Flossie was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Hurricane Flossie was weakening rapidly on Wednesday evening as it moved over cooler water south of Baja California.  Many of the thunderstorms in Flossie’s circulation were dissipating,  The bands revolving around the center of Hurricane Flossie consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The dissipation of the thunderstorms in Flossie greatly reduced the upper level divergence.  Much less mass was being pumped away from Hurricane Flossie.  The continued convergence of mass in the lower levels of Flossie’s circulation caused the surface pressure to increase quickly.

The circulation around Hurricane Flossie was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Flossie’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Hurricane Flossie.

Hurricane Flossie will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Flossie will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 23°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Mexico and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Even though there will be little vertical wind shear, the cooler water south of Baja California will cause Hurricane Flossie to continue to weaken on Thursday.

Hurricane Flossie will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the Flossie toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Flossie will remain south of Baja California.