Tropical Storm Ileana brought gusty winds and rain to the southern part of Baja California on Friday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located at latitude 22.7°N and longitude 109.4°W which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) east-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Ileana was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (9 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Santa Fe to San Evaristo, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Cabo San Lucas and La Paz.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Evaristo to Loreto, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Topolobampo to Huatabampito, Mexico.
The circulation around Tropical Storm Ileana was not particularly well organized on Friday afternoon. The northwestern part of Illeana’s circulation was passing over the southern end of Baja California. The flow of air over land may have been disrupting the circulation. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Ileana. Easterly winds pushing air up slopes in southern Baja California may have been contributing to the development of thunderstorms in that part of Ileana’s circulation. Storms near the center of Ileana generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.
The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Ileana was asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the eastern side of Ileana’s circulation. The winds in the western part of Tropical Storm Ileana were blowing at less than tropical storm force.
Tropical Storm Ileana will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ileana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough over the Southwest U.S. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ileana’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Tropical Storm Ileana is likely to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases. The center of Ileana’s circulation could move across the southeastern tip of Baja California, which would also cause Tropical Storm Ileana to weaken.
Tropical Storm Ileana will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Ileana toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Ileana will move across the southeastern tip of Baja California and over the southern Gulf of California.
Tropical Storm Ileana will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern part of Baja California during the next 24 hours. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.