Tropical Cyclone Bheki will bring wind and rain to Rodrigues in the South Indian Ocean. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki was located at latitude 18.4°S and longitude 64.4°E which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) northeast of Rodrigues. Bheki was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.
Tropical Cyclone Bheki weakened gradually on Tuesday as it approached Rodrigues. The effects of vertical wind shear and drier air started to affect the structure of Tropical Cyclone Bheki. Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern side of Bheki’s circulation. Bands in the western part of Tropical Cyclone Bheki consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Bheki generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone.
The effects of the vertical wind shear also affected the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Bheki. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Bheki’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the southern side of Tropical Cyclone Bheki. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the northern side of Bheki’s circulation.
Tropical Cyclone Bheki will continue to move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bheki will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough near Madagascar. The upper level level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bheki’s circulation. Those upper level winds will cause the moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Bheki will continue to weaken during the next 24 hours because of the moderate vertical wind shear.
Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Bheki toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center Tropical Cyclone Bheki will pass just to the north of Rodrigues during the next 12 hours. Bheki could be near Mauritius in 36 hours.
Tropical Cyclone Bheki will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Rodrigues. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.