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Tropical Cyclone Bheki To Bring Wind and Rain to Rodrigues

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Tropical Cyclone Bheki will bring wind and rain to Rodrigues in the South Indian Ocean.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki was located at latitude 18.4°S and longitude 64.4°E which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) northeast of Rodrigues.  Bheki was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki weakened gradually on Tuesday as it approached Rodrigues.  The effects of vertical wind shear and drier air started to affect the structure of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern side of Bheki’s circulation.  Bands in the western part of Tropical Cyclone Bheki consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Bheki generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone.

The effects of the vertical wind shear also affected the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Bheki’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the southern side of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the northern side of Bheki’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will continue to move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bheki will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough near Madagascar.  The upper level level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bheki’s circulation.  Those upper level winds will cause the moderate vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Bheki will continue to weaken during the next 24 hours because of the moderate vertical wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bheki toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center Tropical Cyclone Bheki will pass just to the north of Rodrigues during the next 12 hours.  Bheki could be near Mauritius in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Rodrigues. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki Weakens Over South Indian Ocean

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Tropical Cyclone Bheki weakened over the South Indian Ocean on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki was located at latitude 17.7°S and longitude 68.1°E which put the center about 345 miles (555 km) east-northeast of Rodrigues.  Bheki was moving toward the west-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

More vertical wind shear caused Tropical Cyclone Bheki to weaken on Monday as it moved over the South Indian Ocean.  It was no longer possible to detect an eye on satellite images of Bheki.  Thunderstorms were still occurring around the center of Bheki’s circulation.  Those thunderstorms generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.

There was still a large area of strong winds in Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Bheki’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Bheki was 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size INdex (HWISI) was 31.9.  Tropical Cyclone Bheki was similar in intensity to Hurricane Matthew when Matthew hit North Carolina  in 2016.  Bheki was bigger than Matthew was.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will continue to move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bheki will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bheki’s circulation.  Those upper level winds will cause the moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Bheki will weaken during the next 24 hours because of the moderate vertical wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bheki toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center Tropical Cyclone Bheki will approach Rodrigues in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Rodrigues.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki Strengthens to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

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Tropical Cyclone Bheki strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved over the South Indian Ocean on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki was located at latitude 16.9°S and longitude 69.7°E which put the center about 475 miles (765 km) east-northeast of Rodrigues.  Bheki was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on Sunday.  A small circular eye was present at the center of Bheki’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorm were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki. Storms near the center of Bheki’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bheki was symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Bheki’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Bheki was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 20.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size INdex (HWISI) was 45.4. Tropical Cyclone Bheki was similar in intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017. Bheki was bigger than Harvey was.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bheki will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  An upper level trough will approach Bheki from the west.  The upper level level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bheki’s circulation.  Those upper level l winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Cyclone Bheki will weaken during the next 24 hours because of more vertical wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bheki toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center Tropical Cyclone Bheki will pass north of Rodrigues in two days..

Tropical Cyclone Bheki Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

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Tropical Cyclone Bheki intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean on Saturday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 71.4°E which put the center about 610 miles (980 km) east-northeast of Rodrigues.  Bheki was moving toward the southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday.  A circular eye formed at the center of Bheki’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorm were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  Storms near the center of Bheki’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bheki increased on Saturday when Bheki intensified.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Bheki’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Bheki was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size INdex (HWISI) was 39.3.  Tropical Cyclone Bheki was similar in intensity to Hurricane Rita when Rita hit Southwest Louisiana in 2005.  Bheki was a little smaller than Rita was.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bheki will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Bheki is likely to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bheki toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move toward Rodrigues.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

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Tropical Cyclone Bheki intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki was located at latitude 13.1°S and longitude 74.0°E which put the center about 415 miles (670 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Bheki was moving toward the southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Friday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Bheki’s circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  The strongest winds were occurring in the part of the rainband that wrapped around the center of Bheki.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorm were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  Storms near the center of Bheki’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bheki was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Bheki’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bheki will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Bheki is likely to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bheki toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bheki will pass far to the south of Diego Garcia on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki Forms Southeast of Diego Garcia

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Tropical Cyclone Bheki formed over the South Indian Southeast of Diego Garcia on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki was located at latitude 10.5°S and longitude 75.9°E which put the center about 325 miles (525 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Bheki was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean southeast of Diego Garcia strengthened on Thursday and Meteo France la Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  Thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were also revolving around the center of Bheki’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Bheki began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bheki was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Bheki’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bheki will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Bheki will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Bheki could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bheki toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bheki will pass far to the south of Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai Passes South of Christmas Island

Tropical Cyclone Teratai passed south of Christmas Island on Wednesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Teratai was located at latitude 14.2°S and longitude 104.4°E which put it about 255 miles (410 km) south-southwest of Christmas Island. Teratai was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai weakened slowly as it passed over the South Indian Ocean south of Christmas Island on Wednesday. Thunderstorms were occurring in a couple of bands in the western half of Teratai’s circulation. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Teratai.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move through an environment that will be mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Teratai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C during the next 24 hours. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge centered northwest of Australia. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Teratai’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Teratai could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours, but it will move over cooler water later this week. When Teratai moves over cooler water, the reduction in available energy and the vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Teratai to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Teratai toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move farther away from Christmas Island.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai Redevelops South of Indonesia

Tropical Cyclone Teratai redeveloped south of Indonesia on Tuesday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Teratai was located at latitude 12.0°S and longitude 106.4°E which put it about 380 miles (615 km) south of Jakarta, Indonesia and about 115 miles (185 km) south-southeast of Christmas Island. Teratai was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

After strong upper level winds blew the top off of former Tropical Cyclone Teratai late last week, the circulation in the lower levels made an extended clockwise loop southwest of Indonesia. More thunderstorms formed west of the low level center of circulation on Monday and the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Teratai strengthened during the past 24 hours. Data from scatterometers on satellites indicated that the wind speeds increased back to tropical storm force on Tuesday. The distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Teratai’s circulation. Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Teratai consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Teratai was a small tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move through an environment that will be mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Teratai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26.5˚C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge centered northwest of Australia. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Teratai’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear is already causing an asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms and the shear will continue to inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Teratai could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours, but if the wind shear increases Teratai is likely to weaken again.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Teratai toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move south of Christmas Island during the next several days.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai Forms Southwest of Java

Tropical Cyclone Teratai formed over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Java on Wednesday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Teratai was located at latitude 9.3°S and longitude 102.2°E which put it about 375 miles (605 km) southwest of Jakarta, Indonesia. Teratai was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A distinct center of circulation formed in a small low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Java on Wednesday morning and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Teratai. Thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation. Shorts bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Teratai. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Teratai.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next several days. Teratai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge centered north of Australia. The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Teratai’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move into an area where drier air is sinking toward the surface of the ocean. The sinking drier air will inhibit the formation of new thunderstorms. Tropical Cyclone Teratai could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours. However, the effects of the sinking air and vertical wind shear are likely to cause Teratai to weaken later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Teratai toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move farther away from Indonesia. Teratai could move north of Cocos Island later this week.

Tropical Cyclone 03S Makes Landfall in Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone 03S made landfall on the coast of Western Australia on Thursday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone 03S was located at latitude 20.4°S and longitude 117.8°E which put it about 55 miles (90 km) west of Port Hedland, Australia. It was moving toward the southeast at 28 m.p.h. (45 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone 03S made landfall on the coast of Western Australia west of Port Hedland on Thursday night. The tropical cyclone intensified slightly just before landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of circulation. The tropical cyclone brought gusty winds to the area around Port Hedland. A weather station in Port Hedland reported a sustained wind speed of 44 m.p.h. (71 km/h) and a wind gust of 56 m.p.h. (91 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone 03S will drop heavy rain over parts of Western Australia as it moves rapidly inland. Flood Warnings were in effect for the Pilbara Coastal Rivers, the Fortescue River, the De Grey River catchment, the Salt Lakes District Rivers, the Sandy Desert, and the Warburton District Rivers.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Bongoyo weakened east of Rodrigues. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bongoyo was located at latitude 22.2°S and longitude 74.8°E which put it about 640 miles (1035 km) east of Rodrigues. It was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.