Tag Archives: Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Ewetse Forms Southwest of Madagascar

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Tropical Cyclone Ewetse formed over the southern Mozambique Channel southwest of Madagascar on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Ewetse was located at latitude 25.4°S and longitude 41.9°E which put the center about 200 miles (325 km) west of Beloha, Madagascar.  Ewetse was moving toward the east at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A low pressure system over the southern Mozambique Channel southwest of Madagascar strengthened on Tuesday and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Ewetse.

Thunderstorms were developing near the center of Tropical Cyclone Ewetse on Tuesday afternoon.  More thunderstorms also formed in bands in the southern half of Ewetse’s circulation.  Bands in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Ewetse consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Ewetse generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and east of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Ewetse was relatively symmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Ewetse’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ewetse will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Ewetse will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the northeastern part of an upper level trough that is east of South Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ewetse’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Ewetse is likely to intensify during the next 12 hours.

The upper level trough east of South Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Ewetse toward the east during the next 12 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Ewetse will reach the coast of southwest Madagascar west of Beloha in 12 hours.  Ewetse will move over southern Madagascar on Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Ewetse will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar on Wednesday.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was continuing to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone as it moved farther to the south of Mauritus.  At 1:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 26.2°S and longitude 56.7°E which put the center about 365 miles (590 km) south of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Dudzai was moving toward the south-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai Moves Southeast of Mauritius

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Tropical Cyclone Dudzai moved southeast of Mauritius on Monday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 23.5°S and longitude 56.0°E which put the center about 205 miles (330 km) south-southeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Dudzai was moving toward the southwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai strengthened a little on Monday even though it was in the early stages of a transition to an extratropical cyclone.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Storms near the center of Dudzai generated some upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was very nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So the surface pressure remained nearly constant on Monday.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Dudzai became a little more symmetrical even though Dudzai was in the early stages of a transition to an extratropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) in the southern half of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.

Tropical Cyclone Duzai will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level low that is south of Mauritius.  The upper level winds will blow from the same direction as the winds at lower levels in the atmosphere.  So there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is likely to maintain its intensity while it continues to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next couple of days.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move farther to the south of Mauritius on Tuesday.

 

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai Passes Southeast of Rodrigues

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Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was passing southeast of Rodrigues on Sunday evening.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 21.3°S and longitude 62.2°E which put the center about 130 miles (210 km) east-southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Dudzai was moving toward the west-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

The intensity of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai did not change much on Sunday.  Even though Dudzai’s intensity did not change a lot, its structure began to show signs of the start of a transition to an extratropical cyclone.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai moved over slightly cooler water on Sunday.  Since the slightly cooler water contained less energy, thunderstorms in Dudzai did not rise as high into the atmosphere.  There were also fewer thunderstorms near the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Some bands of showers and thunderstorms were still revolving around the center of Dudzai’s circulation.

The distribution of wind winds speeds in Tropical Cyclone Dudzai continued to be very asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 165 miles (265 km) in the southern half of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.

Tropical Cyclone Duzai will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the eastern part of an upper level low that is southeast of Mauritius and La Reunion.  The upper level low will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dudzai’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear and cooler Sea Surface Temperatures will cause Tropical Cyclone Dudzai to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next couple of days.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, ropical Cyclone Dudzai will move away from Rodrigues on Monday.  Dudzai will pass southeast of Mauritius and La Reunion early this week.

Tropical Cyclone Grant Moves Northeast of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Grant moved northeast of Mauritius on Saturday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 15.6°S and longitude 62.3°E which put the center about 480 miles (775 km) northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Grant was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Grant weakened slightly earlier on Saturday.  However, more thunderstorms developed in Grant’s circulation on Saturday evening.  Numerous thunderstorms formed in the bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Grant.  New thunderstorms also started to develop in bands east of the center of Grant’s circulation.  Thunderstorms near the center of Grant began to generate more upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Grant will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Grant’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The moderate wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will be less than it has been during the past few days. Tropical Cyclone Grant could intensity during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Grant toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Grant will pass north of Mauritius and La Reunion on Monday.  Grant could approach the east coast of Madagascar on Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Grant Moves Northeast of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Grant moved northeast of Rodrigues over the South Indian Ocean on Friday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 15.2°S and longitude 66.4°E which put the center about 375 miles (605 km) north-northeast of Rodrigues.  Grant was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Grant was maintaining its intensity on Friday morning.  An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean continued to produce easterly winds that blew toward the top of Grant’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear was affecting the structure of Tropical Cyclone Grant.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the western half of Grant’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of Grant consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Grant still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. However, the removal of mass in the upper levels was about the same as the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure remained nearly constant.

The vertical wind shear was also affecting the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Grant.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the western side of Grant’s circulation.  The winds in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Grant were blowing at less that tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Grant will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Grant’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Grant is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian  Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Grant toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Grant will pass north of Rodrigues on Saturday.  Grant will pass north of Mauritius and La Reunion on Monday.  Tropical Cyclone Grant could approach the east coast of Madagascar on Tuesday.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Iggy weakened south-southeast of Christmas Island.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Iggy was located at latitude 16.8°S and longitude 1086°E which put the center about 455 miles (735 km) south-southeast of Christmas Island.  Iggy was moving toward the southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Grant Weakens

Tropical Cyclone Grant weakened as it moved over the South Indian Ocean northeast of Rodrigues on Thursday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 15.7°S and longitude 67.1°E which put the center about 370 miles (600 km) northeast of Rodrigues.  Grant was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Grant weakened rapidly on Thursday.  An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean produced easterly winds that blew toward the top of Grant’s circulation.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  The strong wind shear caused Tropical Cyclone Grant to weaken rapidly.

The strong vertical wind shear also affected the structure of Tropical Cyclone Grant.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the western half of Grant’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of Grant consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Grant still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.  However, the removal of mass in the upper levels was much less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased rapidly on Thursday.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Grant was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Grant’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Grant will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Grant’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Grant is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Grant toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Grant will pass north of Rodrigues on Saturday.  Grant will pass north of Mauritius and La Reunion on Monday.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Iggy moved farther away from Christmas Island.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Iggy was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 106.5°E which put the center about 425 miles (685 km) south-southeast of Christmas Island.  Iggy was moving toward the south-southeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge Churns West

Tropical Cyclone Chenge was churning westward over the South Indian Ocean on Wednesday morning.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chenge was located at latitude 10.6°S and longitude 61.6°E which put the center about 735 miles (1185 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Chenge was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge was maintaining its intensity as it churned westward on Wednesday morning.  A ragged eye was visible at the center of Chenge’s circulation on satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Chenge.  Storms near the center of Chenge generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure did not change much.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chenge was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Chenge’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Chenge will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Chenge’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Chenge is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chenge toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chenge will move north of Madagascar during the end of the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Garance Intensifies to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Garance intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane north of La Reunion on Thursday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 18.5°S and longitude 55.4°E which put the center about 155 miles (205 km) north of St. Denis, La, Reunion.  Garance was moving toward the southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). 0 The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Garance intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane north of La Reunion on Thursday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Garance’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Garance’s circulation.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Garance was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Garance’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Garance was 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.4. Tropical Cyclone Garance was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005.

Tropical Cyclone Garance will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Garance will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under an upper level ridge that is east of Madagascar.  The upper level winds are weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Garance could continue to intensify during the next 12 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.

Tropical Cyclone Garance is likely to get pulled into the eastern side of the larger circulation around Tropical Cyclone Honde, which is over the southern Mozambique Channel.  The larger circulation around Honde will steer Garance toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Garance will reach La Reunion within the next 18 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Garance is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches La Reunion.  Garance will be capable of causing major damage on La Reunion.  Tropical Cyclone Garance will also drop heavy rain on La Reunion.  Heavy rain is likely to cause widespread flash flooding.  Garance could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of La Reunion.

Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Garance could also bring strong winds and heavy rain to Mauritius.  There were reports that the airport on Mauritius was closed as a precaution.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Honde intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the southern Mozambique Channel near Madagascar.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde was located at latitude 25.0°S and longitude 41.8°E which put the center about 170 miles (280 km) southwest of Toliara, Madagascar.  Honde was moving toward the southeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Honde will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Garance Forms Northwest of La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Garance formed over the Southwest Indian Ocean northwest of La Reunion on Tuesday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 18.3°S and longitude 52.1°E which put the center about 270 miles (435 km) northwest of St. Denis, La, Reunion.  Garance was moving toward the east-northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A low pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean northwest of La Reunion strengthened on Tuesday morning and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Garance.  The distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical in Tropical Cyclone Garance.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western and northern parts of Garance’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern and southern parts of Tropical Cyclone Garance consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Garance began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Garance was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Garance’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Garance will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Garance will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the northwestern side of an upper level low that is southeast of La Reunion.  The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Garance’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Garance will intensify during the next 24 hours.

The upper level low southeast of La Reunion will steer Tropical Cyclone Garance slowly toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Garance will approach La Reunion and Mauritius in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Garance could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches La Reunion and Mauritius.

Elsewhere over the Southwest Indian Ocean, a tropical depression formed over the Mozambique Channel.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 22.9°S and longitude 37.1°E which put the center about 405 miles (655 km) west of Toliara, Madagascar.   The tropical depression was moving toward the south-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi Passes South of La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi passed far to the south of La Reunion on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was located at latitude 32.3°S and longitude 50.3°E which put the center about 795 miles (1235 km) south-southwest of St. Denis, La Reunion.  Dikeledi was moving toward the east-southeast at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi began to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Thursday as it moved over the Southwest Indian Ocean far to the south of La Reunion.  An eye was no longer visible at the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Microwave satellite images still showed evidence of the former eyewall.  The strongest winds were occurring in the former eyewall.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  Bands in the other parts of Dikeledi’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi increased on Thursday, when Dikeledi started the transition to an extratropical cyclone.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Dikeledi.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dikeledi will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over southern Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will weaken during the next 24 hours.  Cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and moderate vertical wind shear will cause Dikeledi to continue to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough over southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dikeldi will pass far to the south of Mauritius on Friday.