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Tropical Cyclone Gezani Hits Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Gezani hit Madagascar near Toamasina with strong winds and heavy rain on Tuesday afternoon.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani was located at latitude 18.4°S and longitude 47.6°E which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) northeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar.  Gezani was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani hit Madagascar near Toamasina on Tuesday afternoon.  A weather station at the airport in Toamasina (FMMT) reported a reported a sustained wind speed of 54 m.p.h. (87 km/h) and a wind gust of 84 m.p.h. (135 km/h) at 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday.  That observation was made while Gezani was approaching Toamasina.  There have not been any additional reports from that weather station since that time.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani was the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hit Madagascar.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km) at the time of landfall.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Gezani at the time of landfall was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.6. Tropical Cyclone Gezani was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.   The high pressure system will steer Gezani toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Gezani will continue to move across central Madagascar on Wednesday.  Gezani will reach the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday night.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to central Madagascar.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani will be capable of causing serious damage to central Madagascar.  Widespread outages of electricity are likely.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will continue to weaken as it moves across central Madagascar.  Gezani is likely to be the equivalent of a tropical storm when it reaches the Mozambique Channel.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move into an environment favorable for intensification after it moves over the Mozambique Channel.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani Intensifies to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Gezani intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane east of Madagascar on Tuesday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani was located at latitude 18.1°S and longitude 49.5°E which put the center about 105 miles (165 km) east of Toamasina, Madagascar.  Gezani was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane east of Toamasina, Madagascar on Tuesday morning.  A small circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Gezani generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The small circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gezani was very symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Gezani’s circulation.   Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Gezani is 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 11.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 34.6. Tropical Cyclone Gezani is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move through an environment that will be very favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Gezani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani could continue to intensify during the next few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Gezani toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Gezani will reach the east coast of Madagascar near Toamasina in a few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hits the east coast of Madagascar.  Gezani will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to central Madagascar. Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani will be capable of causing major damage to central Madagascar.  Widespread outages of electricity are likely.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along parts of the east coast of Madagascar near Toamasina.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 2 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Gezani rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale east of Madagascar on Monday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani was located at latitude 18.2°S and longitude 51.6°E which put the center about 245 miles (395 km) east of Toamasina, Madagascar.  Gezani was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Monday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Gezani’s circulation.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Gezani generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gezani was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Gezani is 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 27.6.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move through an environment that will be very favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Gezani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani will intensify during the next 12 hours. Gezani could continue to intensify rapidly.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Gezani toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Gezani will reach the east coast of Madagascar near Toamasina in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hits the east coast of Madagascar.  Gezani will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to central Madagascar.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Gezani will be capable of causing major damage to central Madagascar.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along parts of the east coast of Madagascar near Toamasina.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani Moves Toward Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Gezani was strengthening on Monday morning as it moved toward the east coast of Madagascar.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani was located at latitude 18.0°S and longitude 53.4°E which put the center about 365 miles (585 km) east of Toamasina, Madagascar.  Gezani was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani was strengthening on Monday morning.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Gezani’s circulation.  A small circular eye was forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Gezani generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gezani was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Gezani’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move through an environment that will be very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gezani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Gezani could intensify rapidly.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani will strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon in the next few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Gezani toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Gezani will reach the east coast of Madagascar near Toamasina in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it hits the east coast of Madagascar.  Gezani will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to central Madagascar.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the east coast of Madagascar near Toamasina.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia Moves East of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Fytia moved to the east of Madagascar on Sunday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia was located at latitude 20.7°S and longitude 50.7°E which put the center about 145 miles (235 km) southeast of Toamasina, Madagascar.  Fytia was moving toward the southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia started to intensify again after it moved over the Southwest Indian Ocean east of Madagascar on Sunday.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Fytia’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also formed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.  Storms near the center of Fytia generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and east of the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fytia was still small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Fytia’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fytia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is over La Reunion and Mauritius.  The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fytia’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Fytia will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system that is over the Southwest Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fytia toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fytia continue to move away from Madagascar.  Fytia will pass south of La Reunion and Mauritius later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia Brings Wind and Rain to Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Fytia was bringing wind and rain to Madagascar on Saturday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia was located at latitude 17.5°S and longitude 47.0°E which put the center about 140 miles (225 km) north-northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar.  Fytia was moving toward the southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia made landfall on the west coast of Madagascar west of Soalala on Friday night.  Fytia was the equivalent of a major hurricane at the time of landfall.  It then started to weaken as it moved southeast across central Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia was the equivalent of a tropical storm on Saturday morning.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Fytia’s circulation.

An upper level trough over the Mozambique Channel will steer Tropical Cyclone Fytia toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  The center of Fytia’s circulation will pass between Antananarivo and Toamasina.  Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move over the Southwest Indian Ocean on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to central Madagascar.   Heavy rain is very likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Widespread electricity outages are also likely.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Fytia rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane before it hit the west coast of Madagascar on Friday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 45.2°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) west of Soalala, Madagascar.  Fytia was moving toward the east-southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia continued to intensify rapidly on Friday right up to the time it hit the west coast of Madagascar.  A small circular eye was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Fytia’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Fytia generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fytia was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Fytia’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fytia was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HWISI) was 9.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.0 Tropical Cyclone Fytia was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fytia toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fytia will across central Madagascar on Saturday.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia made landfall on the west coast of Madagascar west of Soalala.  The center of Fytia’s circulation is likely to pass between Antananarivo and Toamasina on Saturday night.  Tropical Cyclone Fytia will weaken as it moves across Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of west central Madagascar and to central Madagascar.  Fytia could cause major damage in those areas.   Heavy rain is very likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Fytia could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the west coast of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Faida Brings Wind and Rain to Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Faida brought wind and rain to Madagascar on Monday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Faida was located at latitude 18.5°S and longitude 49.7°E which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) southeast of the Toamasina, Madagascar.  Faida was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Even though the center of Tropical Cyclone Faida was just off the east coast of Madagascar on Monday night, bands in the western side of of Faida’s circulation were already over land.  Those bands brought strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of northern and central Madagascar.

The strongest winds and heaviest rain were in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Faida.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the western side of Faida’s circulation.  The winds in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Faida were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Faida will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean and southern Africa.  The high pressure system will steer Faida toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Faida will move across Madagascar during the next 36 hours.  The center of Faida’s circulation will pass near Toamasina and Antananarivo.

Tropical Cyclone Faida will continue to drop heavy rain over parts of northern and central Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Vince intensified southwest of the Cocos Islands and Tropical Cyclone Taliah continued to spin northwest of Australia.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince was located at latitude 17.3°S and longitude 91.5°E which put the center about 465 miles (750 km) southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Vince was moving toward the west-southwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah was located at latitude 15.5°S and longitude 112.4°E which put the center about 485 miles (780 km) north of Exmouth, Australia.  Taliah was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Faida Develops Just East of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Faida developed just east of Madagascar on Monday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Faida was located at latitude 18.1°S and longitude 50.3°E which put the center about 70 miles (110 km) east of the Toamasina, Madagascar.  Faida was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A low pressure system just to the east of Madagascar strengthened on early on Monday and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Faida.  The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Faida was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring mainly in bands in the western side of Faida’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern part of Tropical Cyclone Faida consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Faida generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

The distribution of wind speed in Tropical Cyclone Faida was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the western half of Faida’s circulation.  The winds in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Faida were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Faida will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Faida will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Faida’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone Faida could intensity during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Faida will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Faida toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Faida will make landfall on the northern coast of Madagascar near Toamasina in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Faida will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Moves Toward Madgascar

Tropical Cyclone Emnati moved toward Madagascar on Monday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 18.1°S and longitude 53.1°E which put it about 255 miles (410 km) east of Toamasina, Madagascar. Emnati was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was surrounded by concentric eyewalls on Monday morning. The original, inner eyewall surrounded an eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km). A larger, outer eyewall with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) surrounded the inner eye and eyewall. The inner eyewall was slowly weakening and the low level convergence was becoming more concentrated at the outer eyewall. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls. Storms around the large core of Emnati generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Emnati increased after the concentric eyewalls formed. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Emnati. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 215 miles (345 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Emnati was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 26.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 46.9. Emnanti was similar in intensity and size to Hurricane Rita when Rita hit southwest Louisiana in 2005.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Even though Tropical Cyclone Emnati will be in an environment favorable for intensification, the current eyewall replace cycle could cause Emnati to weaken while the inner eyewall dissipates. Tropical Cyclone Emanti could eventually strengthen again after the eyewall replacement cycle is completed.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Emnati toward the west-southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti could reach the southeast coast of Madagascar in 36 hours. The center of Emnati could make landfall between Mananjary and Vangaindrano. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Madagascar. Emnati will be capable of causing widespread major damage to southern Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will bring strong destructive winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Emanti will also cause a significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Madagascar.