Tag Archives: Tropical Cyclone Francisco

Tropical Cyclone Gabekile Develops South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Gabekile developed south of Diego Garcia on Saturday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gabekile was located at latitude 17.4°S and longitude 74.1°E which put it about 700 miles (1125 km) south of Diego Garcia.  Gabekile was moving toward the south-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gabekile was small but well organized.  Some microwave images suggested that a small eye could be forming at the center of circulation.  The eyelike feature was surrounded by a tight ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the small core of Gabekile.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Gabekile will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Gabekile will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The ridge will produce northerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Gabekile could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Gabekile will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high will steer Gabekile  toward the south.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gabekile will move farther away from Diego Garcia.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Francisco was weakening as it moved slowly inland over east-central Madagascar.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Francisco was located at latitude 20.0°S and longitude 48.3°E which put it about 10 miles (15 km) north of Marolambo, Madagascar.  Francisco was moving toward the southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.  Tropical Cyclone Francisco was dropping locally heavy rain over parts of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Francisco Redevelops Near East Coast of Madagascar

After moving slowly westward across the Southwest Indian Ocean for the past few days, Tropical Cyclone Francisco redeveloped near the east coast of Madagascar on Thursday.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Francisco was located at latitude 17.9°S and longitude 50.7°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) east of Toamasina, Madagascar.  Francisco was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (9 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Strong vertical wind shear weakened Tropical Cyclone Francisco east of Rodrigues last Thursday, but the lower portion of the circulation remained intact.  The lower level circulation drifted slowly westward during the last seven days and it moved across Mauritius and La Reunion earlier the week.  More thunderstorms began to develop around the lower level circulation on Wednesday, when it moved closer to the east coast of Madagascar.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms began to reform.  Storms near the center of circulation started generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease and the wind speeds began to increase.

Tropical Cyclone Francisco has exhibited greater organization in recent hours.  However, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Francisco was moving under the northern part of an upper level ridge.  The ridge was producing easterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing some vertical wind shear and the shear could be responsible for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Cyclone Francisco will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 6 to 12 hours.  Francisco will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level ridge will still cause vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Francisco will weaken when it moves over Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Francisco will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean.  The high will steer Francisco toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Francisco could make landfall on the east coast of Madagascar in about 12 hours.  Francisco will drop locally heavy rain over parts of central Madagascar.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations,

Tropical Cyclone Damien Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Damien strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Thursday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Damien was located at latitude 18.0°S and longitude 117.2°E which put it about 190 miles (310 km) north of Karratha, Australia.  Damien was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Wallal Downs to Mardie including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier.  A Watch was in effect for the coast from Mardia to Onslow.

Tropical Cyclone Damien organized quickly on Thursday.  Microwave satellite imagery suggested that a small eye could be forming at the center of Damien.  A small ring of thunderstorms surrounded the forming eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Damien.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Damien will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Damien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over Australia.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Damien will strengthen during the next 24 hours and it could rapidly intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Damien will move around the western end of a high pressure system centered over Australia.  The high will steer Damien toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Damien could make landfall on the coast of Western Australia in the vicinity of Dampier, Karratha and Wickham in about 24 hours.  Damien could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches the coast.  It will produce strong gusty winds.  Tropical Cyclone Damien will also drop locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Francisco weakened east of Rodrigues.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Francisco was located at latitude 19.3°S and longitude 71.7°E which put it about 565 miles (910 km) east of Port Mathurin, Mauritius.  Francisco was moving toward the southeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb

Tropical Cyclone Develops Near Western Australia, Watch Issued

A tropical cyclone currently designated as 14S (SH14) developed near the coast of Western Australia on Wednesday and a Watch was issued for a portion of the coast.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 14S was located at latitude 17.1°S and longitude 120.2°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) north-northeast of Port Hedland, Australia.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the west-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.  A Watch was issued for a portion of the coast of Western Australia from Wallal Downs to Onslow including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier.

A Tropical Low previously located over Western Australia moved westward over the South Indian Ocean on Wednesday and it strengthened into Tropical Cyclone 14S.  The circulation around the tropical cyclone was still organizing on Wednesday night.  More thunderstorms were forming near the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing and the bands were revolving around the center of the tropical cyclone.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone 14S will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge centered over northern Australia.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone 14S will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon in 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 14S will move around the northwestern end of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west-southwest during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone 14S will turn more toward the south on Friday when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 14S could approach the coast of Western Australia between Port Hedland and Karratha in about 48 hours.  It will likely be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches the coast.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Francisco formed northeast of Rodrigues.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Francisco was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 70.4°E which put it about 485 miles (785 km) east-northeast of Port Mathurin, Mauritius.  Francisco was moving toward the east-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.