Tag Archives: Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Hayley Brings Wind and Rain to Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Hayley brought wind and rain to Western Australia on Tuesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hayley was located at latitude 16.7°S and longitude 123.7°E which put the center about 50 miles (80 km) north-northwest of Derby, Australia.  Hayley was moving toward the east at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the region from north of Beagle Bay to south of Kuri Bay, Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley made landfall on the coast of Western Australia south of Lombadina on Tuesday morning.  Hayley moved across the northern part of the Dampier Peninsula.  Tropical Cyclone Haley was currently over King Sound.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Hayley was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Hayley’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Hayley.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Hayley was 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 20.6.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley will move around the northeastern part of an upper level trough over Western Australia.  The upper level trough will steer Hayley toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Hayley will make another landfall in Western Australia north of Derby in a few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley will bring strong winds and locally heavy to parts of Western Australia north and east of Derby.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations,

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has issued a Severe Weather Warning for heavy rainfall for parts of the Kimberley District.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Grant was moving south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 14.8°S and longitude 75.1°E which put the center about 565 miles (910 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Grant was moving toward the west-southwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Hayley rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon northwest of Australia early on Monday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hayley was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 120.3°E which put the center about 210 miles (340 km) northwest of Broome, Australia.  Hayley was moving toward the southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the portion of the coast from north of Broome to Cockatoo Island.  The Warning included the Dampier Peninsula and Derby.

The Australia Bureau of Meteorology issued a Watch for the region from east of Derby to Kuri Bay.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon early on Monday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Hayley’s circulation.  A small eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Hayley.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hayley’s circulation.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Hayley was very small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Hayley’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Hayley.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Hayley was 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 19.8.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Hayley will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of a small upper level ridge that is northwest of Australia.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Hayley is likely to continue to  intensify during the next 12 hours. Hayley could intensify rapidly because its circulation is so small.  Tropical Cyclone Hayley will move under the northeastern part of an upper level trough that is near the west coast of Australia in about 12 hours.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Hayley’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Cyclone Hayley will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Hayley toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Hayley will make landfall in the northern part of the Dampier Peninsula between Beagle Bay and Cape Leveque in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley is likely to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at the time of landfall.  Hayley will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Dampier Peninsula and parts of Western Australia.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Hayley could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along portions of the coast near where the center makes landfall.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Grant intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 13.8°S and longitude 80.0°E which put the center about 710 miles (1145 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Grant was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

The Hurricane Intensity Index for Tropical Cyclone Grant was 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.7.  Tropical Cyclone Grant was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Charley when Charley hit Southwest Florida in 2004.

Tropical Cyclone Grant Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Grant rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean southeast of Diego Garcia on Sunday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 13.6°S and longitude 82.0°E which put the center about 810 miles (1305 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Grant was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 957 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Grant rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Sunday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Grant’s circulation.  A small circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Grant’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Grant generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Grant was very small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Grant’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Grant will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Grant is likely to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours unless the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall.  If concentric eyewalls form, then Grant will weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Grant toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Grant will pass south of Diego Garcia in 48 hours.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Hayley was intensifying as it moved toward the coast of Western Australia.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hayley was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 119.5°E which put the center about 290 miles (465 km) northwest of Broome, Australia.  Hayley was moving toward the south at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the portion of the coast from north of Broome to Cape Leveque.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Watch for the zone from Broome to Kuri Bay.  The Watch included Derby and Cockatoo Island.

 

Tropical Cyclone Hayley Forms Northwest of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Hayley formed over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Sunday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hayley was located at latitude 14.4°S and longitude 119.5°E which put the center about 320 miles (520 km) northwest of Broome, Australia.  Hayley was moving toward the south at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean strengthened on Sunday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Hayley.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Watch for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Broome to Cockatoo Island.  The Watch includes Derby.

A small low pressure system northwest of Australia strengthened to Tropical Cyclone Hayley.  Thunderstorms developed near the center of the low pressure system.  Thunderstorms also formed in bands in the western side of Hayley’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Hayley consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Hayley generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Hayley was very small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Hayley’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Hayley will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of a small upper level ridge that is northwest of Australia.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Hayley will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Hayley could intensify rapidly because its circulation is so small.  Tropical Cyclone Hayley is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over northern Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Hayley toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Hayley will move toward the coast of Western Australia.  Hayley is likely to reach the coast east of Broome in less than 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of Western Australia east of Broome.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Gran continued to intensify.  At 1:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 13.3°S and longitude 83.5°E which put the center about 900 miles (1450 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Grant was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fina Hits Kimberley Coast

Tropical Cyclone Fina hit the northeast Kimberley coast of Australia on Monday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina was located at latitude 14.3°S and longitude 127.9°E which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) east of Kalumburu, Australia.  Fina was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fina hit the northeast Kimberley coast of Australia near the Mouth of the Berkeley River on Monday.  Fina was the equivalent of a major hurricane at the time of landfall.  Tropical Cyclone Fina was bringing strong destructive winds and heavy rain to the region near the Mouth of the Berkeley River.  Fina was also causing a strong storm surge in the small area near the center of its circulation.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fina was very small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Fina’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fina was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.6.  Tropical Cyclone Fina was similar in intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005.  Fina was not as large as Dennis was.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move around the western end of a high pressure system over northern Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Fina toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fina will move inland over the Kimberley Plateau.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will weaken quickly because of its small size as it moves over the Kimberley Plateau.  Fina will continue to produce strong winds and to drop locally heavy rain as it moves inland.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

 

Tropical Cyclone Fina Moves Over Timor Sea

Tropical Cyclone Fina was moving over the Timor Sea on Sunday after it caused wind damage and electricity outages in Darwin.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina was located at latitude 13.7°S and longitude 128.8°E which put the center about 155 miles (250 km) west-southwest of Darwin, Australia.  Fina was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Wadeye, Australia to the Daly River Mouth.  A Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the border between the Northern Territory and Western Australia to Kalumburu.

Tropical Cyclone Fina was still a well organized tropical cyclone on Sunday.  A small circular eye was visible at the center of Fina’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Fina.  Storms near the core of Fina generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fina was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Fina’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fina was 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.6.  Tropical Cyclone Fina was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over northern Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Fina’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  However, the circulation around the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Fina will begin to pull drier air from northwestern Australia into its circulation.  The drier air will cause thunderstorms in the eastern side of Fina’s circulation to start to weaken.  The effects of the drier air will cause Tropical Cyclone Fina to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move around the western end of a high pressure system over northern Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Fina toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina will reach the coast of Western Australia near of the King George River Mouth in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the coast of the Western Australia northeast of Kalumburu.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Fina could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along parts of the coast of the Western Australia.

Flood Watches are in effect for the North West Coastal Rivers and the Bonaparte Coastal Rivers.

Tropical Cyclone Fina Brings Wind and Rain to Darwin

Tropical Cyclone Fina brought wind and rain to Darwin, Australia on Saturday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina was located at latitude 12.2°S and longitude 130.4°E which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) northwest of Darwin, Australia.  Fina was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Hotham to Wadeye, Australia.  The Warning includes Darwin.  A Warning is also in effect for the western and central Tiwi Islands.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Wadeye to Troughton Island, Australia.  The Watch includes Kalumburu.

Tropical Cyclone Fina brought wind and rain to the area around Darwin, Australia on Saturday.  The core of Fina’s circulation, where the strongest winds were, was passing to the northwest of Darwin.  A weather station at the Darwin Airport reported a sustained wind speed of 37 m.p.h. (57 km/h) and a wind gust to 53 m.p.h. (85 km/h).  The weather station also measure 5.89 inches (149.6 mm) of rain.

Tropical Cyclone Fina intensified to the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved over the Timor Sea.  A very small eye was present at the center of Fina’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Fina.  Storms near the core of Fina generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fina was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Fina’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fina was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 24.0.  Tropical Cyclone Fina was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification while it moves over the Timor Sea during the next 24 hours.  Fina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.   It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over northern Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Fina’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Fina could intensify during the next 24 hours.  Fina could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move around the western end of a high pressure system over northern Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Fina toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.   On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina will move away from Darwin during the next 24 hours.   Fina will approach the coast of Western Australia northeast of Kalumburu in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the coast of the Northern Territory of Australia southwest of Darwin.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Fina could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the coast of the Northern Territory.

Flood Watches are in effect for the North West Coastal Rivers and the Bonaparte Coastal Rivers.

Tropical Cyclone Errol Makes Landfall in Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Errol made landfall on the coast of Western Australia on Friday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Errol was located at latitude 16.1°S and longitude 124.3°E which put the center about 20 miles (35 km) south-southwest of Kuri Bay, Australia.  Errol was moving toward the east at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Errol made landfall on the coast of Western Australia south-southwest of Kuri Bay on Friday.  Errol was weakening at the time of landfall.  Tropical Cyclone Errol was the equivalent of a tropical storm when it made landfall.  The circulation around Errol was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Errol.

An upper level trough near the coast of Western Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Errol toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Errol will move inland over Western Australia.  The center of Errol’s circulation will move southeast of Kuri Bay.

Tropical Cyclone Errol will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Western Australia south of Kuri Bay.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Errol Weakens Rapidly

Tropical Cyclone Errol weakened rapidly as it approached the coast of Western Australia on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Errol was located at latitude 16.2°S and longitude 122.1°E which put the center about 135 miles (220 km) north-northwest of Broome, Australia.  Errol was moving toward the east-southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Warning is in effect for the coast of Western Australia from Kuri Bay to Broome.  The Warning includes Derby.

Tropical Cyclone Errol weakened rapidly as it approached the coast of Western Australia on Thursday.  An upper level trough near the coast of Western Australia was producing strong northwesterly winds that were blowing the top of Errol’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear was causing Tropical Cyclone Errol to weaken rapidly.

The strong vertical wind shear was also affecting the structure of Tropical Cyclone Errol.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern side of Errol’s circulation.  Bands in the western side of Tropical Cyclone Errol consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Errol was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 15 miles (25 km) in the eastern side of Errol’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Errol.

Tropical Cyclone Errol will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Errol will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  However, the upper level trough near the coast of western Australia will continue to produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow toward the of Errol’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Errol to continue to weaken rapidly.

The upper level trough near the coast of Western Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Errol toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Errol will make landfall near Cape Leveque in about 12 hours.  The center of Errol’s circulation will pass north of Derby.

Tropical Cyclone Errol will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the part of Western Australia near Cape Leveque and northeast of Derby.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Errol Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Errol rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Wednesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Errol was located at latitude 14.2°S and longitude 118.9°E which put the center about 325 miles (520 km) northwest of Broome, Australia.  Errol was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 919 mb.

A Watch is in effect for the coast of Western Australia from Kuri Bay to Broome.  The Watch includes Derby.

Tropical Cyclone Errol rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Wednesday.  A very small circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was at the center of Errol’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Errol.  Storms near the core of Errol generated upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Errol increased while Errol rapidly intensified.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Errol’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Errol.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Errol is 35.0.  The Hurricane Size index (HSI) is 12.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 47.8.  Tropical Cyclone Errol is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.

Tropical Cyclone Errol will move through an environment favorable for a powerful tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Errol will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over Australia and the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Errol could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.  If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could cause Errol to weaken.  An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Tropical Cyclone Errol on Thursday.  The upper level trough will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  More vertical wind shear will cause Errol to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Errol will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Errol toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Errol will remain north of Western Australia during the next day or so.  The upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will cause Errol to start to move back toward the southeast on Thursday.