Tag Archives: Mitchell Plateau

Tropical Low Moves Toward Western Australia

Leave a reply

A Tropical Low over the South Indian Ocean was moving toward the coast of Western Australia on Thursday night.  The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center is now designating the Tropical Low as Tropical Cyclone 17S.

At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone 17S was located at latitude 13.6°S and longitude 120.2°E which put the center about 355 miles (575 km) north-northwest of Broome, Australia.  Tropical Cyclone 17S was moving toward the southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the portion of the coast from Broome to Kuri Bay.  The Warning included Derby.

A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bidyadanga to Broome.  A Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Kuri Bay to Mitchell Plateau.

Tropical Cyclone 17S was exhibiting more organization on Thursday evening.  More thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and western side of the tropical cyclone.  There still were not a lot of thunderstorms near the center of Tropical Cyclone 17S.  The thunderstorms were starting to generate more upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone 17S.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the northern side of the tropical cyclone.  The winds in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone 17S were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone 17S will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone 17S will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle part of an upper level ridge that is northwest of Australia.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone 17S will Intensify during the next 24 hours.  It could intensify rapidly.

Tropical Cyclone 17S Will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone 17S will approach the coast of Western Australia near Cape Leveque in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 17S will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the portion of Western Australia between Broome and Kuri Bay.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for the Northwest Kimberley and Western Sandy Desert regions.

Tropical Cyclone 17S could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of Western Australia.

Tropical Low Prompts Watch for Western Australia

Leave a reply

The potential risk posed by a Tropical Low over the South Indian Ocean prompted the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to issue a Watch for a portion of the coast of Western Australia on Wednesday evening.  The Tropical Low is currently designated as Invest 91S by the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 11.4°S and longitude 118.9°E which put the center about 510 miles (825 km) northwest of Broome, Australia.  The Tropical Low was moving toward the southeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Watch for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Bidyadanga to Mitchell Plateau.  The Watch included Broome and Derby.

The circulation of the Tropical Low was in the early stages of organization on Wednesday evening.  There were not many thunderstorms near the center of the Tropical Low.  Thunderstorms were occurring in a band in the southern periphery of the circulation around the Tropical Low.  There also were not many thunderstorms in the northern side of the Tropical Low.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  The Tropical Low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle part of an upper level ridge that is northwest of Australia.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The Tropical Low is likely to continue to get better organized during the next 24 hours.

The Tropical Low Will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the Tropical Low will approach the coast of Western Australia in 48 hours.

Tropical Low Prompts Watch for Western Australia

A risk posed by a Tropical Low prompted the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to issue a Watch for a portion of the coast of Western Australia on Thursday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 13.8°S and longitude 121.8°E which put the center about 215 miles (350 km) west-northwest of the Kuri Bay, Australia.  The Tropical Low was moving toward the east-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (7 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Mitchell Plateau to Beagle Bay.  The Watch includes Derby and Beagle Bay.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean west of Australia exhibited more organization on Thursday morning and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology classified the system as a Tropical Low.  The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center designated the low pressure system as Invest 93S.

The distribution of thunderstorms in the Tropical Low was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of the Tropical Low.  Bands in the eastern side of the Tropical Low consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the Tropical Low.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The Tropical Low will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that extends from over Australia to the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the Tropical Low.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  The Tropical Low could intensify during the next 24 hours.

The Tropical Low will move around the western end of a high pressure system over northern Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the Tropical Low will make landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Kuri Bay and Derby in 36 hours.

The Tropical Low will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Western Australia.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Courtney continued to strengthen south-southeast of the Cocos Islands.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Courtney was located at latitude 16.8°S and longitude 99.5°E which put the center about 380 miles (610 km) south-southeast of the Cocos Islands.  Courtney was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Anika Develops over Timor Sea

Tropical Cyclone Anika developed over the Timor Sea west of Darwin, Australia on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Anika was located at latitude 12.8°S and longitude 127.6°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) north-northeast of Kalumburu, Australia. Anika was moving toward the south-southwest at 3 m.p.h (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Dundee Beach to Mitchell Plateau. The Warning included Wadeye, Wyndham and Kalumburu. A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mitchell Plateau to Cockatoo Island. A Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Dundee Beach to Point Stuart. The Watch included Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Timor Sea strengthened on Friday morning and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Anika. More thunderstorms developed around the center of Anika’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Anika. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Anika.

Tropical Cyclone Anika will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Anika will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Anika will strengthen during the next 24 hours and it could intensify rapidly. There is a chance that Anika could intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Anika will be in a region where the steering winds are weak. A high pressure system over Australia will steer Anika slowly toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Anika will approach the coast of Western Australia northeast of Kalumburu in 24 hours. Anika could become nearly stationary when it approaches the coast. Tropical Cyclone Anika will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of Western Australia northeast of Kalumburu. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches have been issued for the East Kimberly Rivers, North Kimberly Rivers and West Kimberly Rivers.