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Tropical Cyclone Luana Brings Wind and Rain to Western Australia

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Tropical Cyclone Luana brought wind and rain to Western Australia on Saturday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Luana was located at latitude 17.5°S and longitude 123.1°E which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) west of Derby, Australia.  Luana was moving toward the southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning that was in effect for the portion of the coast from Broome to Cockatoo Island.  The Warning included Derby.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Luana made landfall on the Dampier Peninsula between Beagle Bay and Cape Leveque early on Saturday.  Luana intensified prior to making landfall.  Tropical Cyclone Luana was the equivalent of a strong tropical storm at the time of landfall.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Luana became more symmetrical before it made landfall.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Luana’s circulation.

A weather station in Derby in Western Australia reported a sustained wind speed of 43 m.p.h. (69 km/h) and a wind gust of 60 m.p.h. (96 km/h).  That weather station reported 7.43 inches (188.8 mm) of rain so far.

A weather station in Broome reported a sustained wind speed of 25 m.p.h. (41 km/h) and a wind gust of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The weather station in Broome reported 1.87 inches (47.4 mm) of rain.

Tropical Cyclone Luana Will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Luana toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.   On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Luana will move inland over Western Australia south of Derby during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Luana will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Western Australia.   Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Warnings are in effect for the West Kimberley District and the North Kimberley District.

A Flood Watch is in effect for the Western Sandy Desert.

Tropical Cyclone Luana could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of King Sound.

Tropical Cyclone Luana will weaken gradually as it moves farther inland over Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Hayley rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon northwest of Australia early on Monday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hayley was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 120.3°E which put the center about 210 miles (340 km) northwest of Broome, Australia.  Hayley was moving toward the southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the portion of the coast from north of Broome to Cockatoo Island.  The Warning included the Dampier Peninsula and Derby.

The Australia Bureau of Meteorology issued a Watch for the region from east of Derby to Kuri Bay.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon early on Monday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Hayley’s circulation.  A small eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Hayley.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hayley’s circulation.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Hayley was very small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Hayley’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Hayley.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Hayley was 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 19.8.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Hayley will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of a small upper level ridge that is northwest of Australia.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Hayley is likely to continue to  intensify during the next 12 hours. Hayley could intensify rapidly because its circulation is so small.  Tropical Cyclone Hayley will move under the northeastern part of an upper level trough that is near the west coast of Australia in about 12 hours.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Hayley’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Cyclone Hayley will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Hayley toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Hayley will make landfall in the northern part of the Dampier Peninsula between Beagle Bay and Cape Leveque in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley is likely to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at the time of landfall.  Hayley will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Dampier Peninsula and parts of Western Australia.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Hayley could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along portions of the coast near where the center makes landfall.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Grant intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 13.8°S and longitude 80.0°E which put the center about 710 miles (1145 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Grant was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

The Hurricane Intensity Index for Tropical Cyclone Grant was 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.7.  Tropical Cyclone Grant was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Charley when Charley hit Southwest Florida in 2004.

Tropical Cyclone Grant Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Grant rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean southeast of Diego Garcia on Sunday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 13.6°S and longitude 82.0°E which put the center about 810 miles (1305 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Grant was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 957 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Grant rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Sunday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Grant’s circulation.  A small circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Grant’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Grant generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Grant was very small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Grant’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Grant will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Grant is likely to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours unless the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall.  If concentric eyewalls form, then Grant will weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Grant toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Grant will pass south of Diego Garcia in 48 hours.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Hayley was intensifying as it moved toward the coast of Western Australia.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hayley was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 119.5°E which put the center about 290 miles (465 km) northwest of Broome, Australia.  Hayley was moving toward the south at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the portion of the coast from north of Broome to Cape Leveque.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Watch for the zone from Broome to Kuri Bay.  The Watch included Derby and Cockatoo Island.

 

Tropical Cyclone Hayley Forms Northwest of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Hayley formed over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Sunday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hayley was located at latitude 14.4°S and longitude 119.5°E which put the center about 320 miles (520 km) northwest of Broome, Australia.  Hayley was moving toward the south at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean strengthened on Sunday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Hayley.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Watch for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Broome to Cockatoo Island.  The Watch includes Derby.

A small low pressure system northwest of Australia strengthened to Tropical Cyclone Hayley.  Thunderstorms developed near the center of the low pressure system.  Thunderstorms also formed in bands in the western side of Hayley’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Hayley consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Hayley generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Hayley was very small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Hayley’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Hayley will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of a small upper level ridge that is northwest of Australia.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Hayley will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Hayley could intensify rapidly because its circulation is so small.  Tropical Cyclone Hayley is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over northern Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Hayley toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Hayley will move toward the coast of Western Australia.  Hayley is likely to reach the coast east of Broome in less than 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of Western Australia east of Broome.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Gran continued to intensify.  At 1:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 13.3°S and longitude 83.5°E which put the center about 900 miles (1450 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Grant was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Tropical Low Causes Warning for Western Australia

The risk posed by a Tropical Low caused the Australia Bureau of Meteorology to issue a Warning for a portion of the coast of Western Australia on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 12.2°S and longitude 125.8°E which put the center about 260 miles (420 km) north-northeast of Kuri Bay, Australia.  The Tropical Low was moving toward the southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Kalumburu to Kuri Bay.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Kuri Bay to Cockatoo Island.

The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center designated the Tropical Low as Tropical Cyclone 29S.

The Tropical Low was strengthening gradually as it moved near the northern coast of Western Australia.  Vertical wind shear was still causing the distribution of thunderstorms to be asymmetrical.  The Tropical Low was under the northern part of an upper level ridge that extended from Australia to the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge was producing northeasterly winds that were causing the vertical wind shear.  Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of the Tropical Low.  Bands in the northern side of the Tropical Low consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the Tropical Low.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The balance of inflow and outflow was causing the surface pressure to remain constant.

The asymmetric distribution of thunderstorms was also causing the pattern of wind speeds to be asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the southern side of the Tropical Low.  The winds in the northern part of the Tropical Low were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The Tropical Low will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  The northern part of an upper level ridge over Australia and the South Indian Ocean will continue to produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the Tropical Low.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the Tropical Low is likely to intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

The Tropical Low will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the Tropical Low will move parallel to the coast of Western Australia.

The Tropical Low could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of Western Australia between Kalumburu and Kuri Bay.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Low Prompts Watch for Western Australia

The risk posed by a Tropical Low over the Timor Sea caused the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to issue a Watch for a portion of the coast of Western Australia on Friday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 9.8°S and longitude 129.1°E which put the center about 215 miles (350 km) northwest of Darwin, Australia.  The Tropical Low was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Cockatoo Island to the Berkeley River Mouth.  The Watch included Kalumburu and Kuri Bay.

The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center was designating the Tropical Low as Invest 96P.

Vertical wind shear was causing the distribution of thunderstorms to be asymmetrical.  The Tropical Low as under the northern part of an upper level ridge that extended from Australia to the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge was producing northeasterly winds that were causing the vertical wind shear.  Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the Tropical Low.  Bands in the eastern side of the Tropical Low consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the Tropical Low.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The balance of inflow and outflow was causing the surface pressure to remain constant.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The Tropical Low will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  The northern part of an upper level ridge over Australia and the South Indian Ocean will continue to produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the Tropical Low.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the Tropical Low is likely to intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

The Tropical Low will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the low pressure system will move away from Darwin.  The low pressure system could pass near Cape Londonderry and Cape Bougainville on Saturday.

 

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor Churns North-northeast of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor was churning over the South Indian Ocean north-northeast of Mauritius on Tuesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eleanor was located at latitude 15.2°S and longitude 60.6°E which put it about 425 miles (685 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Eleanor was moving toward the south-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor strengthened gradually on Tuesday as it churned over the South Indian Ocean north-northeast of Mauritius. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Eleanor’s circulation Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Eleanor. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Eleanor.

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Eleanor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Eleanor will intensify during the next 36 hours. Eleanor could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Eleanor toward the south during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Eleanor will be northeast of Mauritius in 24 hours. Eleanor could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it is northeast of Mauritius.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Cyclone Lincoln moved across northern Australia toward the coast of Western Australia. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of former Tropical Cyclone Lincoln was located at latitude 15.9°S and longitude 124.6°E which put it about 65 miles (105 km) east-northeast of Cockatoo Island. Lincoln was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Watch for the portion of the coast from Roebourne to Ningaloo. The Watch included Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and Exmouth.

Tropical Low Forms over Timor Sea

A Tropical Low formed over the Timor Sea northwest of Darwin Australia on Saturday. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 10.3°S and longitude 129.0°E which put it about 105 miles (165 km) northwest of Darwin, Australia. The Tropical Low was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (9 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Kalumburu to Cockatoo Island.

A low pressure system over the Timor Sea northwest of Darwin, Australia strengthened on Saturday morning and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as a Tropical Low. The distribution of thunderstorms around the Tropical Low was asymmetrical. Most thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the circulation. Bands in the eastern side of the Tropical Low consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The Tropical Low was moving under the northern part of an upper level ridge over northern Australia. The ridge was producing easterly winds that were blowing toward the top of the Tropical Low. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical low.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. The Tropical Low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31˚C. However, the upper level ridge over northern Australia will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The Tropical Low is likely to intensify gradually during the next 36 hours. It could become a named tropical cyclone during that time.

The Tropical Low will move around the northwest part of a high pressure system over western Australia. The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, the Tropical Low will move parallel to the coast of Western Australia during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Anika Develops over Timor Sea

Tropical Cyclone Anika developed over the Timor Sea west of Darwin, Australia on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Anika was located at latitude 12.8°S and longitude 127.6°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) north-northeast of Kalumburu, Australia. Anika was moving toward the south-southwest at 3 m.p.h (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Dundee Beach to Mitchell Plateau. The Warning included Wadeye, Wyndham and Kalumburu. A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mitchell Plateau to Cockatoo Island. A Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Dundee Beach to Point Stuart. The Watch included Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Timor Sea strengthened on Friday morning and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Anika. More thunderstorms developed around the center of Anika’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Anika. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Anika.

Tropical Cyclone Anika will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Anika will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Anika will strengthen during the next 24 hours and it could intensify rapidly. There is a chance that Anika could intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Anika will be in a region where the steering winds are weak. A high pressure system over Australia will steer Anika slowly toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Anika will approach the coast of Western Australia northeast of Kalumburu in 24 hours. Anika could become nearly stationary when it approaches the coast. Tropical Cyclone Anika will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of Western Australia northeast of Kalumburu. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches have been issued for the East Kimberly Rivers, North Kimberly Rivers and West Kimberly Rivers.