The risk posed by a Tropical Low over the Timor Sea caused the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to issue a Watch for a portion of the coast of Western Australia on Friday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 9.8°S and longitude 129.1°E which put the center about 215 miles (350 km) northwest of Darwin, Australia. The Tropical Low was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.
A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Cockatoo Island to the Berkeley River Mouth. The Watch included Kalumburu and Kuri Bay.
The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center was designating the Tropical Low as Invest 96P.
Vertical wind shear was causing the distribution of thunderstorms to be asymmetrical. The Tropical Low as under the northern part of an upper level ridge that extended from Australia to the South Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge was producing northeasterly winds that were causing the vertical wind shear. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the Tropical Low. Bands in the eastern side of the Tropical Low consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the Tropical Low. The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere. The balance of inflow and outflow was causing the surface pressure to remain constant.
The Tropical Low will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The Tropical Low will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. The northern part of an upper level ridge over Australia and the South Indian Ocean will continue to produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the Tropical Low. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the Tropical Low is likely to intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.
The Tropical Low will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the low pressure system will move away from Darwin. The low pressure system could pass near Cape Londonderry and Cape Bougainville on Saturday.