A tropical cyclone was forming over the Timor Sea on Thursday morning. A low pressure system was gradually organizing into a tropical cyclone over the Timor Sea north of Darwin, Australia on Thursday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of the low pressure system was located at latitude 8.7°S and longitude 130.3°E which put the center about 270 miles (435 km) north of Darwin, Australia. The low pressure system was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.
A low pressure system over the Timor Sea north of Darwin, Australia exhibited more organization on Thursday morning. More thunderstorms formed near the center of the low pressure system. More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the low pressure system. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.
The low pressure system will move through an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. The low pressure system will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over Australia and the South Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the low pressure system. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the low pressure system is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.
The low pressure system will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer the low pressure system toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the low pressure system will move away from Darwin. The low pressure system could pass near Cape Londonderry and Cape Bougainville.