Monthly Archives: November 2024

Tropical Cyclone Fengal Brings Wind and Rain to Southeastern India

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Tropical Cyclone Fengal brought wind and rain to southeastern India on Saturday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fengal was located at latitude 12.4°N and longitude 80.5°E which put the center about 45 miles (75 km) south of Chennai, India.  Fengal was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Fengal made landfall on the coast of southeastern India between Chennai and Puducherry on Saturday.  Fengal was the equivalent of a tropical storm at the time of landfall.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fengal.

Tropical Cyclone Fengal will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over eastern and southern Asia.  The high pressure system will steer Fengal toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fengal will move across southern India during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fengal will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Tamil Nadu.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Fengal could also cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1 meter) along the coast of Tamil Nadu.

Tropical Cyclone Robyn Weakens Over South Indian Ocean

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Tropical Cyclone Robyn weakened over the South Indian Ocean on Friday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Robyn was located at latitude 18.9°S and longitude 94.5°E which put the center about 485 miles (780 km) south-southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Robyn was moving toward the southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

The western end of an upper level ridge that was west of Australia produced strong northwesterly winds that blew across the top of Tropical Cyclone Robyn.  Those strong winds created strong vertical wind shear.  The strong northwesterly winds also blew the tops off of all of the thunderstorms in Robyn’s circulation.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Robyn consisted entirely of bands of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Robyn was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Robyn’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Robyn will move through an environment that will continue to be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Robyn will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  The western end of the upper level ridge that is west of Australia will continue produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the Robyn’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The combination of strong vertical wind shear and marginal Sea Surface Temperatures is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Robyn to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Robyn will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is west of Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Robyn toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Robyn will move farther away from the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Fengal Forms Over Southwestern Bay of Bengal

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Tropical Cyclone Fengal formed over the southwestern Bay of Bengal on Friday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fengal was located at latitude 11.2°N and longitude 82.2°E which put the center about 165 miles (270 km) east-southeast of the Puducherry, India. Fengal was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

A low pressure system over the southwestern Bay of Bengal strengthened during Thursday night and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Fengal.  Thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Fengal.  More thunderstorms also formed in bands revolving around the center of Fengal’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Fengal generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Cyclone Fengal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fengal will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that extends from India across the southern Bay of Bengal.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Fengal is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fengal will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over eastern and southern Asia.  The high pressure system will steer Fengal toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fengal will approach the coast of southeastern India near Puducherry in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fengal will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Tamil Nadu.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Fengal could also cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1 meter) along the coast of Tamil Nadu.

Tropical Cyclone Robyn Spins Southwest of Cocos Islands

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Tropical Cyclone Robyn was spinning over the South Indian Ocean southwest of the Cocos Islands on Thursday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Robyn was located at latitude 16.6°S and longitude 91.2°E which put the center about 485 miles (780 km) southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Robyn was moving toward the south-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Robyn strengthened on Thursday as it spun over the South Indian Ocean southwest of the Cocos Islands.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Robyn’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Robyn.  Storms near the center of Robyn generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.

The distribution of winds speeds in Tropical Cyclone Robyn became more symmetrical on Thursday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Robyn’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Robyn will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Robyn will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge that is west of Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and marginal Sea Surface Temperatures is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Robyn to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Robyn will move around the southwestern end of a high pressure system that is west of Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Robyn toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Robyn will move farther away from the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone 03S Forms West of Cocos Islands

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Tropical Cyclone 03S formed over the South Indian Ocean west of the Cocos Islands on Wednesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 03S was located at latitude 13.1°S and longitude 91.2°E which put the center about 385 miles (620 km) west of the Cocos Islands.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the south-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean west of the Cocos Islands strengthened on Wednesday and the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center designated the system as Tropical Cyclone 03S.  The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone 03S was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of the tropical cyclone’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms west of the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone 03S was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the southern side of the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone 03S.

Tropical Cyclone 03S will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge that is west of Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone 03S could strengthen during the next 24 hours if the upper level winds do not get any stronger.

Tropical Cyclone 03S will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is west of Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone 03S will move farther away from the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki Passes South of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Bheki was passing south of Mauritius on Thursday morning.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki was located at latitude 21.4°S and longitude 56.9°E which put the center about 140 miles (230 km) east-southeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Bheki was moving toward the southwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki was weakening as it passed south of Mauritius on Thursday morning.  An upper level trough over Madagascar was producing strong northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Bheki’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear was affecting the structure of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southeastern quadrant of Bheki’s circulation.  Bands in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Bheki consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms was also affecting the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km/h) in the southern side of Bheki’s circulation.  The winds in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Bheki were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will continue to move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bheki will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  The upper level trough near Madagascar will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Bheki will continue to weaken during the next 24 hours because of the strong vertical wind shear.  Bheki could make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bheki toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center Tropical Cyclone Bheki will pass south of Mauritius and La Reunion.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki To Bring Wind and Rain to Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will bring wind and rain to Rodrigues in the South Indian Ocean.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki was located at latitude 18.4°S and longitude 64.4°E which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) northeast of Rodrigues.  Bheki was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki weakened gradually on Tuesday as it approached Rodrigues.  The effects of vertical wind shear and drier air started to affect the structure of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern side of Bheki’s circulation.  Bands in the western part of Tropical Cyclone Bheki consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Bheki generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone.

The effects of the vertical wind shear also affected the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Bheki’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the southern side of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the northern side of Bheki’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will continue to move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bheki will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough near Madagascar.  The upper level level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bheki’s circulation.  Those upper level winds will cause the moderate vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Bheki will continue to weaken during the next 24 hours because of the moderate vertical wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bheki toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center Tropical Cyclone Bheki will pass just to the north of Rodrigues during the next 12 hours.  Bheki could be near Mauritius in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Rodrigues. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki Weakens Over South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Bheki weakened over the South Indian Ocean on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki was located at latitude 17.7°S and longitude 68.1°E which put the center about 345 miles (555 km) east-northeast of Rodrigues.  Bheki was moving toward the west-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

More vertical wind shear caused Tropical Cyclone Bheki to weaken on Monday as it moved over the South Indian Ocean.  It was no longer possible to detect an eye on satellite images of Bheki.  Thunderstorms were still occurring around the center of Bheki’s circulation.  Those thunderstorms generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.

There was still a large area of strong winds in Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Bheki’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Bheki was 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size INdex (HWISI) was 31.9.  Tropical Cyclone Bheki was similar in intensity to Hurricane Matthew when Matthew hit North Carolina  in 2016.  Bheki was bigger than Matthew was.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will continue to move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bheki will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bheki’s circulation.  Those upper level winds will cause the moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Bheki will weaken during the next 24 hours because of the moderate vertical wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bheki toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center Tropical Cyclone Bheki will approach Rodrigues in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Rodrigues.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Man-yi Weakens to a Tropical Storm

Former Typhoon Man-yi weakened to a tropical storm over the South China Sea on Monday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Man-yi was located at latitude 18.6°N and longitude 115.4°E which put the center about 280 miles (450 km) south-southeast of Hong Kong.  Man-yi was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Former Typhoon Man-yii weakened to a tropical storm after it hit Luzon on Sunday.  An eye was no longer present at the center of Man-yi’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Man-yi.  Storms near the center of Man-yi still generated some upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass was less that the amount of mass converging in the lower levels of Tropical Storm Man-yi.  So, the surface pressure was increasing.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Storm Man-yi became more asymmetrical as Man-yi moved over the South China Sea.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 275 miles (445 km) in the northern side of Man-yi’s circulation.  The large area of tropical storm force winds on the northern side of Tropical Storm Man-yi was partly due to Man-yi’s interaction with a high pressure system over China.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the southern part of Tropical Storm Man-yi.

Tropical Storm Man-yi will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Man-yi will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over China.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Man-yi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  In addition, the high pressure system over China will transport colder, drier air toward Tropical Storm Man-yi.  The effects of moderate vertical wind shear and colder, drier air will cause Tropical Storm Man-yi to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Man-yi will move around the southern side of the high pressure system over China.  The high pressure system will steer Man-yi toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Man-yi will move toward Hainan.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki Strengthens to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Bheki strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved over the South Indian Ocean on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki was located at latitude 16.9°S and longitude 69.7°E which put the center about 475 miles (765 km) east-northeast of Rodrigues.  Bheki was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on Sunday.  A small circular eye was present at the center of Bheki’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorm were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki. Storms near the center of Bheki’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bheki was symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Bheki’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Bheki was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 20.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size INdex (HWISI) was 45.4. Tropical Cyclone Bheki was similar in intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017. Bheki was bigger than Harvey was.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bheki will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  An upper level trough will approach Bheki from the west.  The upper level level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bheki’s circulation.  Those upper level l winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Cyclone Bheki will weaken during the next 24 hours because of more vertical wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bheki toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center Tropical Cyclone Bheki will pass north of Rodrigues in two days..