Tag Archives: SH03

Tropical Cyclone Robyn Weakens Over South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Robyn weakened over the South Indian Ocean on Friday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Robyn was located at latitude 18.9°S and longitude 94.5°E which put the center about 485 miles (780 km) south-southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Robyn was moving toward the southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

The western end of an upper level ridge that was west of Australia produced strong northwesterly winds that blew across the top of Tropical Cyclone Robyn.  Those strong winds created strong vertical wind shear.  The strong northwesterly winds also blew the tops off of all of the thunderstorms in Robyn’s circulation.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Robyn consisted entirely of bands of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Robyn was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Robyn’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Robyn will move through an environment that will continue to be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Robyn will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  The western end of the upper level ridge that is west of Australia will continue produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the Robyn’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The combination of strong vertical wind shear and marginal Sea Surface Temperatures is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Robyn to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Robyn will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is west of Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Robyn toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Robyn will move farther away from the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Robyn Spins Southwest of Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone Robyn was spinning over the South Indian Ocean southwest of the Cocos Islands on Thursday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Robyn was located at latitude 16.6°S and longitude 91.2°E which put the center about 485 miles (780 km) southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Robyn was moving toward the south-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Robyn strengthened on Thursday as it spun over the South Indian Ocean southwest of the Cocos Islands.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Robyn’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Robyn.  Storms near the center of Robyn generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.

The distribution of winds speeds in Tropical Cyclone Robyn became more symmetrical on Thursday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Robyn’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Robyn will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Robyn will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge that is west of Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and marginal Sea Surface Temperatures is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Robyn to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Robyn will move around the southwestern end of a high pressure system that is west of Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Robyn toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Robyn will move farther away from the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone 03S Forms West of Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone 03S formed over the South Indian Ocean west of the Cocos Islands on Wednesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 03S was located at latitude 13.1°S and longitude 91.2°E which put the center about 385 miles (620 km) west of the Cocos Islands.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the south-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean west of the Cocos Islands strengthened on Wednesday and the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center designated the system as Tropical Cyclone 03S.  The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone 03S was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of the tropical cyclone’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms west of the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone 03S was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the southern side of the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone 03S.

Tropical Cyclone 03S will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge that is west of Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone 03S could strengthen during the next 24 hours if the upper level winds do not get any stronger.

Tropical Cyclone 03S will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is west of Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone 03S will move farther away from the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper Brings Wind and Rain to Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Jasper brought wind and rain to Queensland on Wednesday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 144.7°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) northwest of Cairns, Australia. Jasper was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper made landfall on the North Coast of Queensland near Cape Tribulation early on Wednesday. Jasper was the equivalent of a strong tropical storm at landfall. The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h). Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper at the time of landfall.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper made landfall between Cairns and Cooktown. The strongest winds occurred between Cairns and Cooktown. A weather station in Cooktown reported a sustained wind speed of 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h) and a wind gust of 43 m.p.h. (69 km/h). The weather station also measured 1.91 inches (48.5 mm) of rain. A weather station in Cairns reported a sustained wind speed of 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h) and a wind gust of 35 m.p.h. (57 km/h). The weather station in Cairns measured 4.18 inches (105.2 mm) of rain and it was still raining.

Bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Jasper were dropping heavy rain over parts of northern Queensland. A Major Flood Warning was in effect for the Daintree River. A Flood Warning was in effect for the Mossman River. A Moderate Flood Warning was in effect for the Mulgrave River. A Flood Warning was in effect for the Russell River. A Flood Warning was in effect for the Murray River. A Minor Flood Warning was in effect for the Tully River. An Initial Minor Flood Warning was in effect for the Barron River.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move west across northern Queensland during the next 36 hours. Jasper will weaken gradually as it moves over land. Tropical Cyclone Jasper will produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain across parts of northern Queensland. Heavy rain could cause additional flooding in some locations. Jasper could move over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper Nears Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Jasper neared the coast of Queensland on Tuesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 146.1°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) north-northeast of Cairns, Australia. Jasper was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Melville to Cardwell, Australia. The Tropical Cyclone Warning included Cairns, Cooktown, Innisfail, Chillagoe and Palmerville.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was approaching the coast of Queensland near Cape Tribulation on Tuesday night. Jasper was the equivalent of a strong tropical storm as it neared the coast. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Jasper’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours until the center reaches the coast of Queensland. Jasper will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could intensify a little before it makes landfall. There is a slight chance that Jasper could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over eastern Australia and the Coral Sea. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper will reach the coast of Queensland between Cairns and Cooktown in a few hours. The center of Jasper is likely to reach the coast near Cape Tribulation. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of Queensland between Cairns and Cooktown. The strongest winds will occur between Cairns and Cooktown. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. A Flood Watch is in effect for the North Tropical Coast, parts of the Cape York Peninsula and Gulf Country. Heavy rain will spread inland over the Cape York Peninsula as Jasper moves farther to the west. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper Strengthens Again

Tropical Cyclone Jasper strengthened again on Monday as it approached the coast of Queensland. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 147.6°E which put it about 145 miles (235 km) east-northeast of Cairns, Australia. Jasper was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Flattery to Lucinda, Australia. The Tropical Cyclone Warning included Cairns, Cooktown, Innisfail and Chillagoe. A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Melville to Cape Flattery, Australia. The Tropical Cyclone Watch included Palmerville.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper strengthened again on Monday. New thunderstorms developed in bands revolving around the center of Jasper’s circulation. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of the center of circulation. Storms near the center of Jasper generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jasper will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, Jasper will still be in a region of drier air. The drier air will inhibit the formation of new thunderstorms. Tropical Cyclone Jasper is likely to intensify in spite of the drier air during the next 24 hours. Jasper could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over eastern Australia and the Coral Sea. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper will reach the coast of Queensland between Cairns and Cooktown in 24 hours. Jasper could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of Queensland between Cairns and Cooktown. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. A Flood Watch is in effect for the North Tropical Coast, parts of the Cape York Peninsula and Gulf Country. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper Prompts Warning for Queensland

A potential risk posed by Tropical Cyclone Jasper prompted the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to issue a Tropical Cyclone Warning for a portion of the coast of Queensland on Sunday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 149.8°E which put it about 300 miles (480 km) east-southeast of Cairns, Australia. Jasper was moving toward the west-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cooktown to Townsville, Australia. The Tropical Cyclone Warning included Cairns, Innisfail and Palm Island. A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Melville to Cooktown, Australia. The Tropical Cyclone Watch included Palmerville and Chillagoe.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper weakened on Sunday as it continued to move closer to Queensland. Jasper moved into a region of sinking, drier air. The drier air mixed with the rainbands revolving around the center of Jasper’s circulation. The drier air reduced the relative humidity and most of the thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Jasper dissipated. Bands revolving around the center of circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Cyclone Jasper still had a large, symmetrical circulation in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 220 miles (350 km) from the center of Jasper’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jasper will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, Jasper will still be in the region of drier air. The drier air will continue to inhibit the formation of thunderstorms. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could intensify a little during the next 24 hours, if new thunderstorms develop near the center of circulation. On the other hand, if no new thunderstorms develop, then Jasper could weaken a little more.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the Coral Sea and Eastern Australia. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper will reach the coast of Queensland between Cairns and Cooktown in 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper Moves Toward Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Jasper moved toward Queensland on Saturday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 153.9°E which put it about 560 miles (900 km) east of Cairns, Australia. Jasper was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper weakened to the equivalent of a tropical storm on Saturday. An upper level trough near the coast of northeastern Australia produced northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Jasper’s circulation. Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear disrupted the upper level divergence of mass to the west of Tropical Cyclone Jasper. The wind shear also caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Jasper to become asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern part of Tropical Cyclone Jasper. Bands in the northern side of Jasper’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The changes in the circulation of Tropical Cyclone Jasper also caused the wind field to become more asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) in the southern half of Jasper’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (200 km) in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Jasper.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jasper will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level trough near the coast of northeastern Australia will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The moderate vertical wind shear could cause Tropical Cyclone Jasper to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean east of Australia. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jasper will approach the north coast of Queensland in three days.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper Turns Toward Australia

Tropical Cyclone Jasper turned toward Australia on Friday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 156.3°E which put it about 710 miles (1145 km) east of Cairns, Australia. Jasper was moving toward the south-southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper started to weaken on Friday. An upper level trough over the western part of the Coral Sea produced southwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Jasper’s circulation. Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear inhibited the upper level divergence toward the western side of Tropical Cyclone Jasper. The reduced upper level divergence caused the surface pressure to increase. The vertical wind shear also disrupted the inner core of Jasper’s circulation. The eyewall collapsed and an eye was no longer visible on satellite images.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper still had a large circulation despite weakening on Friday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Jasper’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Jasper was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 40.5. Tropical Cyclone Jasper was similar in intensity to Hurricane Gustave when Gustav hit Louisiana in 2008. Jasper was not quite as big as Gustav was.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jasper will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level trough over the western part of the Coral Sea will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The moderate vertical wind shear is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Jasper to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean east of Australia. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the west during the latter part of the weekend and the beginning of next week. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jasper will approach the north coast of Queensland early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Jasper intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Coral Sea on Thursday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 14.0°S and longitude 156.6°E which put it about 755 miles (1220 km) east-northeast of Cairns, Australia. Jasper was moving toward the south at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper continued to strengthen on Thursday and it reached an intensity equivalent to a major hurricane. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) formed at the center of Jasper’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Jasper. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jasper was symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Jasper’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Jasper was 22.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 15.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 37.3. Tropical Cyclone Jasper was capable of causing regional major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jasper will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Jasper’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification but the shear may not be enough to stop Jasper from strengthening. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean east of Australia. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the west during the weekend. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jasper will approach the north coast of Queensland in a few days.