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Tropical Cyclone Alfred Forms over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Alfred formed over the Coral Sea on Sunday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 14.3°S and longitude 153.7°E which put the center about 560 miles (900 km) east-northeast of Cairns, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the east at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea strengthened on Sunday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred exhibited more organization on Sunday.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Alfred’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Storms near the center of Alfred generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was fairly large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is near the Equator.  The high pressure system will steer Alfred toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move farther away from Australia.  Alfred is like to start to move toward the south early next week.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Bianca formed over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bianca was located at latitude 17.0°S and longitude 106.9°E which put the center about 590 miles (950 km) northwest of Exmouth, Australia.  Bianca was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper Brings Wind and Rain to Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Jasper brought wind and rain to Queensland on Wednesday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 144.7°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) northwest of Cairns, Australia. Jasper was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper made landfall on the North Coast of Queensland near Cape Tribulation early on Wednesday. Jasper was the equivalent of a strong tropical storm at landfall. The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h). Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper at the time of landfall.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper made landfall between Cairns and Cooktown. The strongest winds occurred between Cairns and Cooktown. A weather station in Cooktown reported a sustained wind speed of 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h) and a wind gust of 43 m.p.h. (69 km/h). The weather station also measured 1.91 inches (48.5 mm) of rain. A weather station in Cairns reported a sustained wind speed of 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h) and a wind gust of 35 m.p.h. (57 km/h). The weather station in Cairns measured 4.18 inches (105.2 mm) of rain and it was still raining.

Bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Jasper were dropping heavy rain over parts of northern Queensland. A Major Flood Warning was in effect for the Daintree River. A Flood Warning was in effect for the Mossman River. A Moderate Flood Warning was in effect for the Mulgrave River. A Flood Warning was in effect for the Russell River. A Flood Warning was in effect for the Murray River. A Minor Flood Warning was in effect for the Tully River. An Initial Minor Flood Warning was in effect for the Barron River.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move west across northern Queensland during the next 36 hours. Jasper will weaken gradually as it moves over land. Tropical Cyclone Jasper will produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain across parts of northern Queensland. Heavy rain could cause additional flooding in some locations. Jasper could move over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper Nears Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Jasper neared the coast of Queensland on Tuesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 146.1°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) north-northeast of Cairns, Australia. Jasper was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Melville to Cardwell, Australia. The Tropical Cyclone Warning included Cairns, Cooktown, Innisfail, Chillagoe and Palmerville.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was approaching the coast of Queensland near Cape Tribulation on Tuesday night. Jasper was the equivalent of a strong tropical storm as it neared the coast. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Jasper’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours until the center reaches the coast of Queensland. Jasper will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could intensify a little before it makes landfall. There is a slight chance that Jasper could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over eastern Australia and the Coral Sea. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper will reach the coast of Queensland between Cairns and Cooktown in a few hours. The center of Jasper is likely to reach the coast near Cape Tribulation. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of Queensland between Cairns and Cooktown. The strongest winds will occur between Cairns and Cooktown. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. A Flood Watch is in effect for the North Tropical Coast, parts of the Cape York Peninsula and Gulf Country. Heavy rain will spread inland over the Cape York Peninsula as Jasper moves farther to the west. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper Strengthens Again

Tropical Cyclone Jasper strengthened again on Monday as it approached the coast of Queensland. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 147.6°E which put it about 145 miles (235 km) east-northeast of Cairns, Australia. Jasper was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Flattery to Lucinda, Australia. The Tropical Cyclone Warning included Cairns, Cooktown, Innisfail and Chillagoe. A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Melville to Cape Flattery, Australia. The Tropical Cyclone Watch included Palmerville.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper strengthened again on Monday. New thunderstorms developed in bands revolving around the center of Jasper’s circulation. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of the center of circulation. Storms near the center of Jasper generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jasper will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, Jasper will still be in a region of drier air. The drier air will inhibit the formation of new thunderstorms. Tropical Cyclone Jasper is likely to intensify in spite of the drier air during the next 24 hours. Jasper could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over eastern Australia and the Coral Sea. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper will reach the coast of Queensland between Cairns and Cooktown in 24 hours. Jasper could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of Queensland between Cairns and Cooktown. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. A Flood Watch is in effect for the North Tropical Coast, parts of the Cape York Peninsula and Gulf Country. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper Prompts Warning for Queensland

A potential risk posed by Tropical Cyclone Jasper prompted the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to issue a Tropical Cyclone Warning for a portion of the coast of Queensland on Sunday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 149.8°E which put it about 300 miles (480 km) east-southeast of Cairns, Australia. Jasper was moving toward the west-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cooktown to Townsville, Australia. The Tropical Cyclone Warning included Cairns, Innisfail and Palm Island. A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Melville to Cooktown, Australia. The Tropical Cyclone Watch included Palmerville and Chillagoe.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper weakened on Sunday as it continued to move closer to Queensland. Jasper moved into a region of sinking, drier air. The drier air mixed with the rainbands revolving around the center of Jasper’s circulation. The drier air reduced the relative humidity and most of the thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Jasper dissipated. Bands revolving around the center of circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Cyclone Jasper still had a large, symmetrical circulation in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 220 miles (350 km) from the center of Jasper’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jasper will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, Jasper will still be in the region of drier air. The drier air will continue to inhibit the formation of thunderstorms. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could intensify a little during the next 24 hours, if new thunderstorms develop near the center of circulation. On the other hand, if no new thunderstorms develop, then Jasper could weaken a little more.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the Coral Sea and Eastern Australia. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper will reach the coast of Queensland between Cairns and Cooktown in 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper Moves Toward Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Jasper moved toward Queensland on Saturday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 153.9°E which put it about 560 miles (900 km) east of Cairns, Australia. Jasper was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper weakened to the equivalent of a tropical storm on Saturday. An upper level trough near the coast of northeastern Australia produced northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Jasper’s circulation. Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear disrupted the upper level divergence of mass to the west of Tropical Cyclone Jasper. The wind shear also caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Jasper to become asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern part of Tropical Cyclone Jasper. Bands in the northern side of Jasper’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The changes in the circulation of Tropical Cyclone Jasper also caused the wind field to become more asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) in the southern half of Jasper’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (200 km) in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Jasper.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jasper will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level trough near the coast of northeastern Australia will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The moderate vertical wind shear could cause Tropical Cyclone Jasper to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean east of Australia. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jasper will approach the north coast of Queensland in three days.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper Turns Toward Australia

Tropical Cyclone Jasper turned toward Australia on Friday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 156.3°E which put it about 710 miles (1145 km) east of Cairns, Australia. Jasper was moving toward the south-southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper started to weaken on Friday. An upper level trough over the western part of the Coral Sea produced southwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Jasper’s circulation. Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear inhibited the upper level divergence toward the western side of Tropical Cyclone Jasper. The reduced upper level divergence caused the surface pressure to increase. The vertical wind shear also disrupted the inner core of Jasper’s circulation. The eyewall collapsed and an eye was no longer visible on satellite images.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper still had a large circulation despite weakening on Friday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Jasper’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Jasper was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 40.5. Tropical Cyclone Jasper was similar in intensity to Hurricane Gustave when Gustav hit Louisiana in 2008. Jasper was not quite as big as Gustav was.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jasper will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level trough over the western part of the Coral Sea will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The moderate vertical wind shear is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Jasper to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean east of Australia. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the west during the latter part of the weekend and the beginning of next week. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jasper will approach the north coast of Queensland early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Jasper intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Coral Sea on Thursday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 14.0°S and longitude 156.6°E which put it about 755 miles (1220 km) east-northeast of Cairns, Australia. Jasper was moving toward the south at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper continued to strengthen on Thursday and it reached an intensity equivalent to a major hurricane. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) formed at the center of Jasper’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Jasper. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jasper was symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Jasper’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Jasper was 22.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 15.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 37.3. Tropical Cyclone Jasper was capable of causing regional major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jasper will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Jasper’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification but the shear may not be enough to stop Jasper from strengthening. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean east of Australia. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the west during the weekend. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jasper will approach the north coast of Queensland in a few days.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper Strengthens over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Jasper strengthened over the Coral Sea on Wednesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 12.3°S and longitude 156.8°E which put it about 805 miles (1300 km) east-northeast of Cairns, Australia. Jasper was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper strengthened steadily on Wednesday as it moved slowly over the Coral Sea. An eye appeared intermittently at the center of Jasper’s circulation on satellite images. A broken ring of thunderstorms surrounded the intermittent eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Jasper’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jasper increased on Wednesday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Jasper’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (275 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jasper will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the western part of the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are ridge weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Jasper will intensify during the next 24 hours. Jasper will very likely strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean east of Australia. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move slowly toward Australia. Jasper could approach the coast of Queensland in a few days.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Moves Away from Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Freddy moved away from Western Australia on Wednesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 16.1°S and longitude 112.7°E which put it about 440 miles (710 km) north of Learmonth, Australia. Freddy was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy started to weaken as it moved away from Western Australia on Wednesday morning. Freddy was moving under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge over Australia. The upper level ridge was producing easterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Freddy to become asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Freddy’s circulation. Bands in the eastern side of Freddy consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment that is unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the upper level ridge over Australia will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Freddy to weaken during the next 24 hours. The wind shear could lessen when Freddy moves farther west on Friday. If the shear lessens, then Tropical Cyclone Freddy could start to intensify again.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle strengthened over the Coral Sea. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 152.8°E which put it about 450 miles (725 km) east of Cairns, Australia. Gabrielle was moving toward the south-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb. Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle is forecast to move toward the southeast and to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.