Tag Archives: SH12

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Transitions to an Extratropical Cyclone

Former Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle made a transition to an extratropical cyclone northwest of New Zealand on Friday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of former Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle was located at latitude 27.2°S and longitude 165.3°E which put it about 670 miles (1080 km) northwest of Auckland, New Zealand. Gabrielle was moving toward the southeast at 29 m.p.h. (46 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Former Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle made a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Friday. Gabrielle moved over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24˚C. An upper level trough east of Australia produced northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Gabrielle’s circulation. Those winds cause strong vertical wind shear. A combination of cooler water and strong vertical wind shear caused former Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle to make a transition to a strong extratropical cyclone. Strong thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern half of the extratropical cyclone. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The transition to an extratropical cyclone caused the size of the low pressure system to expand. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 330 miles (530 km) from the center of circulation.

The upper level trough east of Australia will steer the extratropical cyclone quickly toward the southeast. On its anticipated track, former Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle could affect northern New Zealand during the weekend. The extratropical cyclone will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern New Zealand. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Intensifies to Equivalent of a Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Coral Sea on Thursday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle was located at latitude 20.1°S and longitude 155.6°E which put it about 565 miles (910 km) north-northeast of Brisbane, Australia. Gabrielle was moving toward the southeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle intensified over the Coral Sea on Thursday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Gabrielle’s circulation. A small eye appeared to be forming at the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Gabrielle’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Gabrielle will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. An upper level trough near the east coast of Australia will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Gabrielle’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough near the east coast of Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle toward the southeast during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Gabrielle will move between Australia and New Caledonia. Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to New Caledonia. Gabrielle will move over cooler water during the weekend and the vertical wind shear will increase. Cooler water and more wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone. Gabrielle could affect northern New Zealand as a strong extratropical cyclone in a few days.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Moves Away from Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Freddy moved away from Western Australia on Wednesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 16.1°S and longitude 112.7°E which put it about 440 miles (710 km) north of Learmonth, Australia. Freddy was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy started to weaken as it moved away from Western Australia on Wednesday morning. Freddy was moving under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge over Australia. The upper level ridge was producing easterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Freddy to become asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Freddy’s circulation. Bands in the eastern side of Freddy consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment that is unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the upper level ridge over Australia will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Freddy to weaken during the next 24 hours. The wind shear could lessen when Freddy moves farther west on Friday. If the shear lessens, then Tropical Cyclone Freddy could start to intensify again.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle strengthened over the Coral Sea. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 152.8°E which put it about 450 miles (725 km) east of Cairns, Australia. Gabrielle was moving toward the south-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb. Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle is forecast to move toward the southeast and to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Forms over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle formed over the Coral Sea on Tuesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle was located at latitude 15.7°S and longitude 153.3°E which put it about 230 miles (370 km) east-northeast of Willis Island. Gabrielle was moving toward the south-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea strengthened on Tuesday night and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern and eastern side of the center of Gabrielle’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle.

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Gabrielle will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle will intensify during the next 24 hours. Gabrielle could intensify rapidly at times and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Southwest Pacific Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Gabrielle toward the south. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle will remain east of Australia. An upper level trough over Australia will steer Gabrielle toward the southeast later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako Hits Northern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Dumako hit northern Madagascar on Tuesday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dumako was located at latitude 16.8°S and longitude 49.9°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northeast of Ivongo, Madagascar. Dumako was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako hit the coast of northern Madagascar between Mananara and Ivongo on Tuesday morning. Dumako was the equivalent of a tropical storm when it hit Madagascar. The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dumako.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northern Madagascar during the next 24 hours. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations, especially in mountainous regions. Dumako will move west across northern Madagascar during the next 36 hours. Tropical Cyclone Dumako will weaken steadily as it moves over the mountains in Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako Moves Toward Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Dumako moved toward Madagascar on Monday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dumako was located at latitude 16.7°S and longitude 52.5°E which put it about 185 miles (295 km) east of Mananara, Madagascar. Dumako was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako moved toward northern Madagascar on Monday afternoon. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Dumako’s circulation during the afternoon after most of the previous thunderstorms had weakened on Monday morning. Tropical Cyclone Dumako weakened a little before the new thunderstorms developed. The new thunderstorms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Dumako was a small tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Dumako will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Dumako. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. There is drier air to the north and west of Tropical Cyclone Dumako. The drier air could inhibit the formation of more thunderstorms around Dumako’s circulation. However, there appears to be moister air near the center of center of circulation and Tropical Cyclone Dumako could strengthen a little during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako will move north of a subtropical high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Dumako will reach the coast of northern Madagascar near Mananara in 18 hours. Dumako is likely to be the equivalent of a tropical storm when it reaches northern Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Dumako will bring gusty wins and locally heavy rain to northern Madagascar on Tuesday. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Dumako is likely to weaken rapidly after the center moves over Madagascar because the circulation is so small.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako Passes North of La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Dumako passed north of La Reunion on Monday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dunako was located at latitude 16.6°S and longitude 54.6°E which put it about 275 miles (445 km) north of St. Denis, La Reunion. Dumako was moving toward the west-southwest at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Small Tropical Cyclone Dumako passed north of Mauritius and La Reunion on Monday morning as it moved over the Southwest Indian Ocean. After Dumako intensified on Sunday, it appeared to be weakening on Monday morning. Drier air seemed to be causing thunderstorms to weaken. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in a band in the eastern side of Dumako’s circulation. Bands in other parts of Tropical Cyclone Dumako consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The thunderstorms in the eastern side of Dumako were generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the enter of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Dumako will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Dumako. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. There is drier air to the north and west of Tropical Cyclone Dumako. The drier air could continue to inhibit the formation of thunderstorms around Dumako’s circulation. If drier air inhibits the formation of additional thunderstorms, then Tropical Cyclone Dumako is likely to weaken gradually during the next during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako will move north of a subtropical high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Dumako 12S will reach the coast of northern Madagascar near Mananara in a little over 24 hours. Dumako is likely to be the equivalent of a tropical storm when it reaches northern Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Dumako will bring gusty wins and locally heavy rain to northern Madagascar on Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Forms North-Northeast of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone 12S formed north-northeast of Mauritius on Sunday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone 12S was located at latitude 15.1°S and longitude 60.5°E which put it about 430 miles (695 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone 12S formed over the Southwest Indian Ocean early on Sunday morning. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone 12S was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring southeast of the center of circulation. Bands in other parts of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone 12S was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 30 miles (50 km) in the southeastern quadrant of the tropical cyclone. The winds in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone 12S were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone 12S will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone 12S will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak bear the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. There is drier air to the north of Tropical Cyclone 12S. Drier air could inhibit the formation of thunderstorms in the northern part of the tropical cyclone’s circulation. If drier air inhibits the formation of thunderstorms, then it could prevent intensification of Tropical Cyclone 12S. Since the circulation around Tropical Cyclone 12S is small, changes in the environment could have big effects on the circulation. Tropical Cyclone 12S could get a little stronger during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 12S will move north of a subtropical high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 12S will pass north of Mauritius in 24 hours. The small size of the circulation means that the tropical cyclone should have little effect on Mauritius. Tropical Cyclone 12S could be north of La Reunion in 36 hours. The tropical cyclone could reach northern Madagascar in less than three days.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise Makes Landfall in Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Eloise made landfall on the coast of Mozambique on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eloise was located at latitude 20.4°S and longitude 34.6°E which put it about 45 miles (75 km) south-southwest of Beira, Mozambique. Eloise was moving toward the west-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Eloise made landfall on the coast of Mozambique just to the south of Beira on Friday night. Eloise continued to intensify until the center made landfall. A small circular eye was evident on satellite images when Tropical Cyclone Eloise approached the coast. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of E;poise. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center.

It is likely that the northern eyewall of Tropical Cyclone Eloise produced winds of near hurricane/typhoon force in Beira. Southerly winds blowing water toward the coast may have caused a storm surge of up to 6 to 9 feet (2 to 3 meters). Eloise was continuing to produce gusty winds and heavy rain in the region around Beira. The tropical cyclone will weaken gradually as it moves inland over central Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean and southern Africa. The high will steer Eloise toward the west-southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Eloise will drop heavy rain over parts of central Mozambique, southern Zimbabwe, northern South Africa and eastern Botswana. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Eloise intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Friday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eloise was located at latitude 19.0°S and longitude 37.5°E which put it about 190 miles (305 km) east-northeast of Beira, Mozambique. Eloise was moving toward the west-southwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon near the coast of Mozambique on Friday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Eloise and an eye was visible on satellite images. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye want the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Eloise. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Eloise will move over water in the Mozambique Channel where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the northern portion of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean and southern Africa. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Eloise is likely to get stronger today.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean during the next two days. The high will steer Eloise toward the west-southwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Eloise will make landfall on the coast of Mozambique near Beira in less than 12 hours. Eloise will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise will bring winds to hurricane/typhoon force to the area around Beira, Mozambique. Eloise will weaken after it moves inland, but it will drop heavy rain over parts of central Mozambique, southern Zimbabwe, southern Botswana, and northern South Africa. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.