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Tropical Cyclone Ewetse Forms Southwest of Madagascar

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Tropical Cyclone Ewetse formed over the southern Mozambique Channel southwest of Madagascar on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Ewetse was located at latitude 25.4°S and longitude 41.9°E which put the center about 200 miles (325 km) west of Beloha, Madagascar.  Ewetse was moving toward the east at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A low pressure system over the southern Mozambique Channel southwest of Madagascar strengthened on Tuesday and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Ewetse.

Thunderstorms were developing near the center of Tropical Cyclone Ewetse on Tuesday afternoon.  More thunderstorms also formed in bands in the southern half of Ewetse’s circulation.  Bands in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Ewetse consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Ewetse generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and east of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Ewetse was relatively symmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Ewetse’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ewetse will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Ewetse will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the northeastern part of an upper level trough that is east of South Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ewetse’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Ewetse is likely to intensify during the next 12 hours.

The upper level trough east of South Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Ewetse toward the east during the next 12 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Ewetse will reach the coast of southwest Madagascar west of Beloha in 12 hours.  Ewetse will move over southern Madagascar on Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Ewetse will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar on Wednesday.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was continuing to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone as it moved farther to the south of Mauritus.  At 1:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 26.2°S and longitude 56.7°E which put the center about 365 miles (590 km) south of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Dudzai was moving toward the south-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Jude brought wind and rain to southern Madagascar on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 24.7°S and longitude 43.8°E which put the center about 85 miles (135 km) northwest of Beloha, Madagascar.  Jude was moving toward the southeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude continued to strengthen gradually until it reached southern Madagascar.  Jude was the equivalent of a strong tropical storm when the center made landfall on the coast of southwestern Madagascar.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (240 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Jude toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude will move across southern Madagascar during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Jude could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) on the west coast of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Elvis Spins Near Southwest Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Elvis continued to spin near southwestern Madagascar on Wednesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Elvis was located at latitude 26.0°S and longitude 43.3°E which put the center about 115 miles (185 km) southwest of Beloha, Madagascar.  Elvis was moving toward the south-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Although Tropical Cyclone Elvis strengthened on Wednesday, drier air appeared to be getting pulled into Elvis’ circulation.  Many of the thunderstorms near the center of Tropical Cyclone Elvis dissipated. Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Elvis’ circulation.  Bands in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Elvis consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The few remaining thunderstorms near the center of Elvis were not generating much upper level divergence

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Elvis was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) in the southeastern part of Elvis’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 50 miles in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Elvis.

Tropical Cyclone Elvis will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Elvis will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough near southern Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Elvis’ circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate to strong vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification of Tropical Cyclone Elvis.  Drier air will also inhibit the intensification of Elvis.  The vertical wind shear and the drier air are likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Elvis to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough near southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Elvis toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical of Cyclone Elvis will pass south of southern Madagascar.  Elvis will move away from Madagascar on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi Passes Southwest of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi passed southwest of Madagascar on Wednesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was located at latitude 26.4°S and longitude 42.9°E which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) southwest of Beloha, Madagascar.  Dikeledi was moving toward the south-southeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi intensified on Wednesday as it moved southwest of Madagascar.  A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) formed at the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  Storms near the core of Dikeledi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi increased on Wednesday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the western side of Dikeledi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.8 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size INdex (HWISI) was 28.3.  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.

Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi were bring gusty winds and heavy rain to southern Madagascar.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dikeledi will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over southern Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will weaken when the wind shear increases.

The upper level trough over southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dikeldi will pass south of Madagascar.  Dikeledi will move southeast of Madagascar on Thursday.