Tag Archives: SH07

Tropical Cyclone Bakung Stalls Again

Tropical Cyclone Bakung stalled again over the South Indian Ocean west of the Cocos Islands on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung was located at latitude 11.5°S and longitude 93.1°E which put the center about 255 miles (410 km) west of the Cocos Islands.  Bakung was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung maintained its intensity as it stalled again on Tuesday.  More thunderstorms formed in the circulation around Bakung.  Storms near the center of Bakung generated more upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure remained nearly constant on Tuesday.

The distribution of wind speed in Tropical Cyclone Bakung became asymmetrical on Tuesday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the southern side of Bakung’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Bakung.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bakung will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is centered east of the Cocos Islands.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Bakung’s circulation.  Those winds will  cause the moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification of Tropical Cyclone Bakung. However, Tropical Cyclone Bakung could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours if the upper level winds do not get any stronger.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung will be in a region where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bakung is anticipated to meander west of the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung Weakens

Tropical Cyclone Bakung weakened as it moved over the South Indian Ocean west-northwest of the Cocos Islands on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung was located at latitude 10.9°S and longitude 92.9°E which put the center about 300 miles (485 km) west-northwest of the Cocos Islands.  Bakung was moving toward the east at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Stronger vertical wind shear caused Tropical Cyclone Bakung to weaken on Monday.  There were still thunderstorms around the center of Bakung’s circulation.  However, the vertical wind shear inhibited the upper level divergence.  Storms near the center of Bakung pumped less mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Monday.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bakung was very small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Bakung’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move through an environment that will continue to be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bakung will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is centered east of the Cocos Islands.  The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bakung’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause the moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Bakung to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The northwesterly winds blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Bakung will continue to steer Bakung toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move closer to the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung Stalls

Tropical Cyclone Bakung stalled over the South Indian Ocean west-northwest of the Cocos Islands on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung was located at latitude 10.9°S and longitude 91.0°E which put the center about 415 miles (670 km) west-northwest of the Cocos Islands.  Bakung was moving toward the south at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung weakened a little after it stalled over the South Indian Ocean on Sunday.  An eye was no longer visible at the center of Bakung’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were still occurring near the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung.  Storms near the center of Bakung generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was a little less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure was increasing slowly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bakung continued to be very small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Bakung’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bakung will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is centered east of the Cocos Islands.  The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bakung’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Bakung to weaken during the next 24 hours.  Because the circulation around Bakung is so small, it could weaken rapidly at times.

The northwesterly winds blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Bakung will start to steer Bakung back toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move closer to the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Bakung intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean on Saturday.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung was located at latitude 10.2°S and longitude 91.4°E which put the center about 390 miles (630 km) west-northwest of the Cocos Islands.  Bakung was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean west-northwest of the Cocos Islands on Saturday.  A very small circular eye developed at the center of Bakung’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung.  Storms near the center of Bakung generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bakung was very small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 10 miles (15 km) from the center of Bakung’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bakung will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is centered east of the Cocos Islands.  The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bakung’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Cyclone Bakung will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.  Because the circulation around Bakung is so small, it could weaken rapidly when the vertical wind shear increases.

The northwesterly winds blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Bakung will start to steer Bakung back toward the east on Sunday.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move back closer to the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung Forms North of Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone Bakung formed over the South Indian Ocean north of the Cocos Islands on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung was located at latitude 8.7°S and longitude 94.9°E which put the center about 270 miles (435 km) north-northwest of the Cocos Islands.  Bakung was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean strengthened on Friday and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Bakung.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung on Friday.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Bakung’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Bakung started to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bakung was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Bakung’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bakung will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over northern Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Bakung’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Bakung will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system tat is over Australia.  The high pressure will steer Bakung toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move farther away from the Cocos Islands during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi Passes South of La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi passed far to the south of La Reunion on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was located at latitude 32.3°S and longitude 50.3°E which put the center about 795 miles (1235 km) south-southwest of St. Denis, La Reunion.  Dikeledi was moving toward the east-southeast at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi began to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Thursday as it moved over the Southwest Indian Ocean far to the south of La Reunion.  An eye was no longer visible at the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Microwave satellite images still showed evidence of the former eyewall.  The strongest winds were occurring in the former eyewall.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  Bands in the other parts of Dikeledi’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi increased on Thursday, when Dikeledi started the transition to an extratropical cyclone.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Dikeledi.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dikeledi will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over southern Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will weaken during the next 24 hours.  Cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and moderate vertical wind shear will cause Dikeledi to continue to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough over southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dikeldi will pass far to the south of Mauritius on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi Passes Southwest of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi passed southwest of Madagascar on Wednesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was located at latitude 26.4°S and longitude 42.9°E which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) southwest of Beloha, Madagascar.  Dikeledi was moving toward the south-southeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi intensified on Wednesday as it moved southwest of Madagascar.  A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) formed at the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  Storms near the core of Dikeledi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi increased on Wednesday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the western side of Dikeledi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.8 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size INdex (HWISI) was 28.3.  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.

Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi were bring gusty winds and heavy rain to southern Madagascar.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dikeledi will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over southern Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will weaken when the wind shear increases.

The upper level trough over southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dikeldi will pass south of Madagascar.  Dikeledi will move southeast of Madagascar on Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi Moves Back Over the Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi moved back over the Mozambique Channel on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was located at latitude 19.6°S and longitude 40.0°E which put the center about 225 miles (365 km) southeast of Quelimane, Mozambique.  Dikeledi was moving toward the south at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi moved back over the Mozambique Channel on Tuesday.  Dikeledi began to strengthen again after the center of circulation moved back over water.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also formed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  Storms near the center of Dikeledi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The distribution of winds speeds in Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi after its passage over northeastern Mozambique on Monday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the eastern side of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western side of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dikeledi will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over southern Africa and the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will intensify back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dikeledi toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will approach Europa Island in 12 hours.  Dikeledi will be southwest of Madagascar in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi Hits Northern Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi hit northern Mozambique on Monday morning.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was located at latitude 15.1°S and longitude 40.6°E which put the center about 30 miles (50 km) south of Nacala, Mozambique.  Dikeledi was moving toward the west-southwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi hit the coast of northern Mozambique just to the south of Nacala on Monday morning.  Dikeledi was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at the time the center made landfall.  A small circular eye was present at the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Dikeledi’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi is 11.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 8.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 20.0.  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi is similar in size to Hurricane Isaias when Isaias hit North Carolina in 2020.  Dikeledi is not as strong as Isaias was.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dikeledi toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move along the coast of northern Mozambique during the next 24hours.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will be just inland along the coast of northern Mozambique south of Nacala during the next 24 hours.  Dikeledi will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the coast of Mozambique.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Dikeledi could cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of northern Mozambique.  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi could move back over the Mozambique Channel later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi Moves Over the Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi moved over the northern Mozambique Channel on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 43.4°E which put the center about 215 miles (345 km) east of Nacala, Mozambique.  Dikeledi was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi weakened as it moved across northern Madagascar on Saturday night.  An eye was no longer at the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  The inner end of a rainband was still wrapped around the northern side of center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was relatively symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi is 11.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 7.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 19.2  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi is similar in size to Hurricane Isaias when Isaias hit North Carolina in 2020.  Dikeledi is not as strong as Isaias was.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dikeledi will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over southern Africa and the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dikeledi toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will approach northern Mozambique in 18 hours.  The steering winds will weaken on Monday and Dikeledi will move more slowly when it approaches northern Mozambique.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will be near the coast of northern Mozambique south of Nacala in 24 hours.  Dikeledi will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the coast of Mozambique.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Dikeledi could cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of northern Mozambique.