Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi moved over the northern Mozambique Channel on Sunday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 43.4°E which put the center about 215 miles (345 km) east of Nacala, Mozambique. Dikeledi was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.
Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi weakened as it moved across northern Madagascar on Saturday night. An eye was no longer at the center of Dikeledi’s circulation. The inner end of a rainband was still wrapped around the northern side of center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Dikeledi’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.
The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was relatively symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Dikeledi’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.
The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi is 11.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 7.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 19.2 Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi is similar in size to Hurricane Isaias when Isaias hit North Carolina in 2020. Dikeledi is not as strong as Isaias was.
Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Dikeledi will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over southern Africa and the Mozambique Channel. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dikeledi’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.
Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Dikeledi toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will approach northern Mozambique in 18 hours. The steering winds will weaken on Monday and Dikeledi will move more slowly when it approaches northern Mozambique.
The center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will be near the coast of northern Mozambique south of Nacala in 24 hours. Dikeledi will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the coast of Mozambique. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Dikeledi could cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of northern Mozambique.