Tag Archives: Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Gezani Moves Away From Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Gezani moved away from Mozambique on Saturday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani was located at latitude 26.7°S and longitude 39.0°E which put the center about 365 miles (590 km) east of Maputo, Mozambique.  Gezani was moving toward the east at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani started to weaken on Saturday as it moved away from Mozambique.  An eye was no longer visible in satellite images of the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were still occurring near the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were still revolving around the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Gezani generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  However, the removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Saturday.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gezani increased a little on Saturday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gezani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is over South Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Gezani’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Gezani will weaken during the next 24 hours because of the moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will cause Gezani to start to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Sunday.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Gezani toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Gezani will continue to move away from the coast of Mozambique on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani Clips Mozambique

The western side of Tropical Cyclone Gezani clipped the coast of Mozambique near Inhambane on Friday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani was located at latitude 24.4°S and longitude 35.8°E which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) southeast of Inhambane, Mozambique.  Gezani was moving toward the south-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani was the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale when it clipped the coast of Mozambique on Friday night.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was present at the center of Gezani’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.   Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Gezani generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gezani was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Gezani was 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.1.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit Alabama in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gezani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is over South Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Gezani’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough will start to steer Tropical Cyclone Gezani toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Gezani will start to move away from the coast of central Mozambique on Saturday.

Bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Gezani circulation will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the region near Inhambane during the next few hours.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani Nears Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Gezani was nearing the coast of Mozambique on Friday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani was located at latitude 22.8°S and longitude 36.3°E which put the center about 130 miles (210 km) north-northeast of Inhambane, Mozambique.  Gezani was moving toward the southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani was strengthening on Friday morning as it neared the coast of Mozambique.  A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was present at the center of Gezani’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Gezani generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gezani increased a little when Gezani strengthened.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Gezani was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 31.9.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit Alabama in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gezani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.  Gezani could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Gezani toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani will pass very close to the coast of central Mozambique during the next 24 hours.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani is currently forecast to pass just to the east of the coast of central Mozambique.  Bands in the western half of Gezani’s circulation could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the region near Inhambane.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  If Tropical Cyclone Gezani moves a little to the west of the forecast track, then the strongest part of Gezani’s circulation could hit the area around Inhambane.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani Intensifies Back to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Gezani intensified back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Mozambique Channel on Thursday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani was located at latitude 20.6°S and longitude 39.5°E which put the center about 325 miles (525 km) northeast of Inhambane, Mozambique.  Gezani was moving toward the west-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani intensified back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it moved over the Mozambique Channel on Thursday morning.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Gezani’s circulation.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Gezani generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Gezani.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) in the eastern half of Gezani’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move through an environment that will be very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gezani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Gezani could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane by Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Gezani toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Gezani will approach the coast of Mozambique in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani Moves Over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Gezani moved over the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday after it crossed central Madagascar.  There were reports of damage and casualties in Madagascar.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani was located at latitude 19.9°S and longitude 41.7°E which put the center about 455 miles (735 km) east of Beira, Mozambique.  Gezani was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani began to strengthen again after Gezani moved over the Mozambique Channel.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Thunderstorms also formed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani.  Storms near the center of Gezani generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of more mass cause the surface pressure to start to decrease again.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gezani was still small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Gezani’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move through an environment that will be very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gezani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani will intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Gezani toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Gezani will moved closer to Mozambique.  Gezani will approach the coast of Mozambique in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jude Meanders over Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Jude meandered over Mozambique on Tuesday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 16.1°S and longitude 35.9°E which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) north-northwest of Quelimane, Mozambique.  Jude was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude remained well organized on Tuesday even though Jude had been over land for more than 36 hours.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms continued to revolve around the center of Jude’s circulation  Storms near the center of Jude’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude was large.  Jude was affecting the weather in Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar, eastern Zimbabwe, and southern Tanzania.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is centered north of Madagascar.  The high pressure system will steer Jude toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jude will move back toward the Mozambique Channel.

Tropical Cyclone Jude is not likely to intensify while the center of circulation is still over land.  Jude will move into an environment favorable for intensification when it moves over the Mozambique Channel.  Jude will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Jude is likely to intensify when it moves back over the Mozambique Channel.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will continue to drop heavy rain on parts of Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar, eastern Zimbabwe, and southern Tanzania.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ivone remained far to the south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ivone was located at latitude 19.8°S and longitude 76.4°E which put the center about 925 miles (1495 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Ivone was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude Brings Wind and Rain to Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Jude brought wind and rain to northern Mozambique and to Malawi on Monday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 37.9°E which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) northwest of Nampula, Mozambique.  Jude was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jude hit the coast of Mozambique just to the south of Nacala on Sunday night.  Jude then moved inland over northern Mozambique on Monday.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude brought strong winds and heavy rain to parts of northern Mozambique.  Bands in the western part of Jude’s circulation also brought strong winds and heavy rain to Malawi.

The winds steering Tropical Cyclone Jude toward the west will weaken during the next 24 hours.  As a result, Tropical Cyclone Jude will meander over northern Mozambique on Tuesday.  Jude could start to move south back toward the Mozambique Channel later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will continue to weaken while it is over northern Mozambique.  However, the circulation around Jude will continue to produce gusty winds and heavy rain over parts of northern Mozambique and over Malawi.  Prolonged heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ivone continued to spin far to the south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ivone was located at latitude 20.2°S and longitude 80.5°E which put the center about 1070 miles (1725 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Ivone was moving toward the southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude Hits Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Jude hit Mozambique on Sunday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 15.2°S and longitude 39.5°E which put the center about 70 miles (110 km) southwest of Nacala, Mozambique.  Jude was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jude hit the coast of Mozambique just to the south of Nacala on Sunday night.  Jude was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at the time of landfall.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) at the time of landfall.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Jude was 13.9 at the time of landfall.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.9.  Tropical Cyclone Jude was similar in intensity to Hurricane Hanna when Hanna hit south Texas in 2020. Jude was larger than Hanna was.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude remains well organized even though the center of Jude’s circulation has been over land for a few hours.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.  Storms near the center of circulation continue to generate upper level divergence that is pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude continues to be symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Jude’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Mozambique Channel.  The high pressure system will steer Jude toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jude will move farther inland over northern Mozambique.  Jude could turn toward the south during the middle of the week.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of northern Mozambique.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Jude will weaken gradually while the center is over land.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ivone was passing far to the south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ivone was located at latitude 19.4°S and longitude 81.9°E which put the center about 1060 miles (1660 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Ivone was moving toward the south-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Jude intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it neared the coast of Mozambique on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 40.8°E which put the center about 40 miles (65 km) east-southeast of Nacala, Mozambique.  Jude was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it neared the coast of Mozambique on Sunday.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Jude’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.  Storms near the center of Jude generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude was symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Jude’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Jude is 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 27.9.  Tropical Cyclone Jude is similar in intensity to Hurricane Hanna when Hanna hit south Texas in 2020.  Jude is larger than Hanna was.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Jude will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Jude will intensify during the next few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Mozambique Channel.  The high pressure system will steer Jude toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude will reach the coast of Mozambique near Nacala in a few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches Mozambique.  Jude will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Mozambique.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Tropical Cyclone Jude will also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of Mozambique.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ivone continued to spin far to the southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ivone was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 82.9°E which put the center about 1005 miles (1625 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Ivone was moving toward the south-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude Forms over the Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Jude formed over the Mozambique Channel on Saturday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 45.1°E which put the center about 280 miles (450 km) east of Nacala, Mozambique.  Jude was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A low pressure system strengthened over the Mozambique Channel on Saturday after moving across northern Madagascar.  Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Jude.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude appeared to be organizing quickly.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Jude’s circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Jude’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Jude generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude was symmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Jude’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Jude will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Jude will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Jude could intensify rapidly.  Tropical Cyclone Jude is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Mozambique Channel.   The high pressure system will steer Jude toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jude will reach the coast of Mozambique near Nacala in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches Mozambique.  Jude will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Mozambique.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Tropical Cyclone Jude will also cause a storm surge along the coast of Mozambique.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ivone formed east-southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ivone was located at latitude 13.4°S and longitude 84.0°E which put the center about 875 miles (1415 km) east-southeast of Nacala, Mozambique.  Ivone was moving toward the south-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.