Tag Archives: Malawi

Tropical Cyclone Jude Meanders over Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Jude meandered over Mozambique on Tuesday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 16.1°S and longitude 35.9°E which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) north-northwest of Quelimane, Mozambique.  Jude was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude remained well organized on Tuesday even though Jude had been over land for more than 36 hours.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms continued to revolve around the center of Jude’s circulation  Storms near the center of Jude’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude was large.  Jude was affecting the weather in Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar, eastern Zimbabwe, and southern Tanzania.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is centered north of Madagascar.  The high pressure system will steer Jude toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jude will move back toward the Mozambique Channel.

Tropical Cyclone Jude is not likely to intensify while the center of circulation is still over land.  Jude will move into an environment favorable for intensification when it moves over the Mozambique Channel.  Jude will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Jude is likely to intensify when it moves back over the Mozambique Channel.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will continue to drop heavy rain on parts of Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar, eastern Zimbabwe, and southern Tanzania.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ivone remained far to the south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ivone was located at latitude 19.8°S and longitude 76.4°E which put the center about 925 miles (1495 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Ivone was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude Brings Wind and Rain to Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Jude brought wind and rain to northern Mozambique and to Malawi on Monday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 37.9°E which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) northwest of Nampula, Mozambique.  Jude was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jude hit the coast of Mozambique just to the south of Nacala on Sunday night.  Jude then moved inland over northern Mozambique on Monday.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude brought strong winds and heavy rain to parts of northern Mozambique.  Bands in the western part of Jude’s circulation also brought strong winds and heavy rain to Malawi.

The winds steering Tropical Cyclone Jude toward the west will weaken during the next 24 hours.  As a result, Tropical Cyclone Jude will meander over northern Mozambique on Tuesday.  Jude could start to move south back toward the Mozambique Channel later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will continue to weaken while it is over northern Mozambique.  However, the circulation around Jude will continue to produce gusty winds and heavy rain over parts of northern Mozambique and over Malawi.  Prolonged heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ivone continued to spin far to the south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ivone was located at latitude 20.2°S and longitude 80.5°E which put the center about 1070 miles (1725 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Ivone was moving toward the southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chido Brings Wind and Rain to Northern Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Chido brought wind and rain to northern Mozambique on Sunday.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 13.7°S and longitude 38.6°E which put the center about 40 miles (65 km) southeast of Marrupa, Mozambique.  Chido was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chido was moving steadily inland over northern Mozambique on Sunday.  Chido was weakening gradually as it moved farther inland.  Even though Tropical Cyclone Chido was weakening, the circulation around Chido remained well organized and symmetrical.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of of Chido’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Chido still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The upper level divergence of mass was less than the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere, and the surface pressure was increasing.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean and southern Africa . The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chido will continue to move farther inland over northern Mozambique.  Chido will reach southern Malawi on Sunday night.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Mozambique.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Chido could also drop heavy rain on southern Malawi.

Tropical Cyclone Chido Hits Northern Mozambique

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Chido hit the coast of northern Mozambique on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 13.5°S and longitude 40.6°E which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) north of Nacala, Mozambique.  Chido was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Chido hit the coast of northern Mozambique less than 24 hours after Chido caused major damage in Mayotte.  The center of Tropical Cyclone Chido made landfall on the coast north of Nacala.  Chido was the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale at the time of landfall.  A small circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Chido’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Chido.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chido was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Chido is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 8.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 33.1.  Tropical Cyclone Chido is similar in intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey made landfall in Texas in 2017.  Chido is not as large as Harvey was.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Mozambique.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Chido could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of northern Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chido will move inland over northern Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will weaken steadily as it moves inland over northern Mozambique.  However, Chido will still bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Mozambique.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could also drop heavy rain on parts of southern Malawi.

Tropical Cyclone Ana Brings Wind and Rain to Northern Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Ana brought wind and rain to northern Mozambique on Monday morning. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ana was located at latitude 16.4°S and longitude 38.6°E which put it about 35 miles (55 km) west of Moma, Mozambique. Ana was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Ana made landfall on the coast of northern Mozambique between Angoche and Moma on Monday morning. Ana was the equivalent of a tropical storm at the time of landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the eastern side of Ana’s circulation. The strongest winds were occurring over the Mozambique Channel. The winds were weaker over land. Thunderstorms in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Ana were dropping heavy rain over parts of northern Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Ana will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ana toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Ana will move across northern Mozambique and southern Malawi. The center of Ana could pass near Mualama, Mucubela, and Mocuba. Tropical Cyclone Ana will weaken gradually as it moves farther inland. Ana will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northern Mozambique, southern Malawi and northern Zimbabwe. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Weather conditions over the Mozambique Channel should improve slowly as Tropical Cyclone Ana moves farther inland.

Tropical Cyclone Ana Strengthens over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Ana strengthened over the Mozambique Channel on Sunday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ana was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 41.5°E which put it about 110 miles (175 km) east-northeast of Angoche, Mozambique. Ana was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A former tropical depression strengthened to Tropical Cyclone Ana over the Mozambique Channel on Sunday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of Ana’s circulation on Sunday evening. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and western parts of Ana. Bands in the southeastern part of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The air in that part of Tropical Cyclone Ana had passed over Madagascar and may have been sinking. Storms near the center of Ana generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ana will move through an environment favorable for intensification for the next few hours. Ana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Ana could get stronger before it reaches the coast of Mozambique on Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Ana will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ana toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Ana could make landfall on the coast of Mozambique near Angoche in a few hours. Ana will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northern Mozambique, southern Malawi and northern Zimbabwe. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Ana could cause a storms surge of up to six feet (2 meters) along the northern coast of Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Desmond Brings Wind and Rain to Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Desmond brought wind and rain to Mozambique on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Desmond was located at latitude 18.8°S and longitude 36.3°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) west of Conceicao, Mozambique.  Desmond was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Desmond made landfall in Mozambique near Ponta Timbue on Monday.  Thunderstorms developed on the western side of the circulation where the winds were blowing toward the land.  Those thunderstorms were dropping heavy rain over parts of Mozambique.  The strongest winds were occurring along the coast of Mozambique and over the Mozambique Channel.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) on the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Desmond.  Wind speeds were slower over land.

Tropical Cyclone Desmond will move around the eastern end of a subtropical high pressure system over southern Africa.  The high will steer Desmond toward the north-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Desmond will move farther inland over the Zambezi River toward southern Malawi.  Desmond will drop locally heavy rain over parts of the lower Zambezi River basin and flooding could occur in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta Intensifies Into Equivalent of a Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta intensified into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Sunday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 63.1°E which put it about 415 miles (670 km) east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Berguitta was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta continued to get better organized on Sunday.  An eye appeared intermittently at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by an elliptical ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in those storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms near the center of Berguitta were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta will continue to move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Berguitta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Berguitta will continue to strengthen and it could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is moving in a region where the steering winds are weak.  Berguitta moved little on Sunday.  A subtropical ridge south of Berguitta is forecast to steer the tropical cyclone slowly westward during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Berguitta will near the western end of the ridge in about two days and it is likely to move toward the southwest after that time.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Berguitta could reach Mauritius within 72 hours.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta could move very close to Mauritius and La Reunion.  Berguitta could be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time.  It has the potential to cause major wind damage, a storm surge, heavy rain and floods.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean microwave images of Invest 99S depicted a structure that looked very much like a tropical cyclone.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Invest 99S was centered at latitude 15.1°S and longitude 41.6°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) east of Lumbo, Mozambique.  Microwave satellite images showed a clear area at the center of circulation surrounded by broken ring of showers and thunderstorms.  A primary rainband wrapped around the eastern side of the circulation and secondary bands of showers and thunderstorms existed in all quadrants of the circulation.  However, no official government agency is classifying the system as a tropical cyclone at the current time.