Tag Archives: SH04

Tropical Cyclone Chenge Churns West

Tropical Cyclone Chenge was churning westward over the South Indian Ocean on Wednesday morning.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chenge was located at latitude 10.6°S and longitude 61.6°E which put the center about 735 miles (1185 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Chenge was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge was maintaining its intensity as it churned westward on Wednesday morning.  A ragged eye was visible at the center of Chenge’s circulation on satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Chenge.  Storms near the center of Chenge generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure did not change much.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chenge was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Chenge’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Chenge will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Chenge’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Chenge is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chenge toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chenge will move north of Madagascar during the end of the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge Strengthens

Tropical Cyclone Chenge strengthened as it moved over the South Indian Ocean on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chenge was located at latitude 9.2°S and longitude 66.6°E which put the center about 400 miles (645 km) west-southwest of Diego Garcia.  Chenge was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge strengthened almost to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday.  Stronger thunderstorms developed near the center of Chenge’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also formed in the bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Chenge.  Storms near the center of Chenge generated more upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chenge became more symmetrical when Chenge strengthened on Monday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of Chenge’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Chenge will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Chenge’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Chenge could continue to intensify during he next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chenge toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chenge could be north of Madagascar by the end of the week.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge Moves Away From Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Chenge moved away from Diego Garcia on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chenge was located at latitude 8.7°S and longitude 67.9°E which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) west-southwest of Diego Garcia.  Chenge was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge strengthened a little on Sunday as it moved away from Diego Garcia.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of Chege’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Chenge.  Storms near the center of Chenge generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Chenge was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 235 miles (380 km) in the southern half of Chenge’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Chenge.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Chenge will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Chenge’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Chenge could continue to intensify on Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chenge toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chenge will pass north of Rodrigues in a couple of days.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge Passes Near Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Chenge passed just to the south of Diego Garcia on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chenge was located at latitude 8.5°S and longitude 69.5°E which put the center about 200 miles (320 km) west-southwest of Diego Garcia.  Chenge was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A low pressure system passing near Diego Garcia strengthened on Saturday and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Chenge.  Chenge brought gusty winds and rain showers to Diego Garcia.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Chenge was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Chenge’s circulation.  The bands in the eastern part of Tropical Cyclone Chenge consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Chenge generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Chenge.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Chenge will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Chenge’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Chenge is likely to intensify on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chenge toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Chenge will move farther away from Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Chido Brings Wind and Rain to Northern Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Chido brought wind and rain to northern Mozambique on Sunday.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 13.7°S and longitude 38.6°E which put the center about 40 miles (65 km) southeast of Marrupa, Mozambique.  Chido was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chido was moving steadily inland over northern Mozambique on Sunday.  Chido was weakening gradually as it moved farther inland.  Even though Tropical Cyclone Chido was weakening, the circulation around Chido remained well organized and symmetrical.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of of Chido’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Chido still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The upper level divergence of mass was less than the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere, and the surface pressure was increasing.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean and southern Africa . The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chido will continue to move farther inland over northern Mozambique.  Chido will reach southern Malawi on Sunday night.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Mozambique.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Chido could also drop heavy rain on southern Malawi.

Tropical Cyclone Chido Hits Northern Mozambique

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Chido hit the coast of northern Mozambique on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 13.5°S and longitude 40.6°E which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) north of Nacala, Mozambique.  Chido was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Chido hit the coast of northern Mozambique less than 24 hours after Chido caused major damage in Mayotte.  The center of Tropical Cyclone Chido made landfall on the coast north of Nacala.  Chido was the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale at the time of landfall.  A small circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Chido’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Chido.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chido was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Chido is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 8.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 33.1.  Tropical Cyclone Chido is similar in intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey made landfall in Texas in 2017.  Chido is not as large as Harvey was.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Mozambique.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Chido could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of northern Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chido will move inland over northern Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will weaken steadily as it moves inland over northern Mozambique.  However, Chido will still bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Mozambique.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could also drop heavy rain on parts of southern Malawi.

Tropical Cyclone Chido Batters Mayotte

Tropical Cyclone Chido battered Mayotte during Friday night.  A weather station at the Dzaoudzi-Pamandzi International Airport (FMCZ) in Mayotte reported a sustained wind speed of 84 knots (97 m.p.h. or 156 km/h) during the passage of Tropical Cyclone Chido.  The weather station also reported a wind gust of 99 knots (114 m.p.h. or 184 km/h) during the passage of Chido.  Tropical Cyclone Chido most likely caused major damage on Mayotte.

At 4:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 12.7°S and longitude 44.8°E which put the center about 20 miles (30 km) west of Mayotte.  Chido was moving toward the west-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chido strengthened as it approached Mayotte on Friday night.  A circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) was at the center of Chido’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Chido.  Storms near the core of Chido generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels exceeded the stronger inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The greater upper level divergence caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chodi was very symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Chido is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 37.6.  Tropical Cyclone Chido is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey made landfall in Texas in 2017.

The southern part of the eyewall of Tropical Cyclone Chido passed directly over Mayotte.  Chido likely caused major damage in Mayotte.  Tropical Cyclone Chido also dropped heavy rain on Mayotte and flash floods are likely.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment favorable for a powerful tropical cyclone during the next 18 hours.  Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could maintain its intensity during the next 18 hours if the inflow of mass in the lower levels is balanced by the divergence of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  Chido could weaken if the inflow of mass in the lower levels exceeds the divergence of mass in the upper levels.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido will reach the coast of northern Mozambique in 18 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Chido is likely to make landfall on the coast of northern Mozambique near Pemba.  Chido could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hits northern Mozambique.  Tropical Cyclone Chido will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Mozambique. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Chido will be capable of causing regional major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Chido Approaches Mayotte

Tropical Cyclone Chido was approaching Mayotte and Comoros on Friday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 12.1°S and longitude 47.0°E which put the center about 135 miles (215 km) east-northeast of Mayotte.  Chido was moving toward the west-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chido was weakening slowly as it approached Mayotte on Friday afternoon.  A circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) was at the center of Chido’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Chido.  Storms near the core of Chido generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was not quite able to balance the stronger inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The greater inflow of mass in the lower levels caused the surface pressure to increase.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chodi was very symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Chido is 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 15.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 33.5.  Tropical Cyclone Chido is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally made landfall in south Alabama in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment favorable for a powerful tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours if the inflow of mass in the lower levels is balanced by the divergence of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido will reach Mayotte in 12 hours.  Chido could approach the coast of northern Mozambique in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Chido could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Mayotte and the Comoros.  The center of Chido will pass very close to Mayotte.  Tropical Storm Chido will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Mayotte.  Chido could also bring strong winds and heavy rain to the southern Comoros.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of Mayotte and the southern Comoros.

Tropical Cyclone Chido Passes North of Madagascar

The center of Tropical Cyclone Chido passed just to the north of Madagascar on Friday morning.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 12.0°S and longitude 49.4°E which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) north of Antsiranana, Madascar.  Chido was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chido was weakening slowly as it passed just to the north of Madagascar on Friday morning.  A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of Chido’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Chido.  Storms near the core of Chido generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was not quite able to balance the stronger inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The greater inflow of mass in the lower levels caused the surface pressure to increase.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chodi was very symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Chido is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 15.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 37.1.  Tropical Cyclone Chido is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta made landfall in southwest Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment favorable for a powerful tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours if the inflow of mass in the lower levels is balanced by the divergence of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido will reach Mayotte and the Comoros in 24 hours.  Chido could approach the coast of northern Mozambique in 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Chido could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Mayotte and the Comoros.  Chido will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Mayotte and the Comoros.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of Mayotte and the Comoros.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Chido Nears Northern Madagascar

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Chido was nearing northern end of Madagascar on Thursday evening.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 11.0°S and longitude 51.7°E which put the center about 185 miles (295 km) east-northeast of Antsiranana, Madascar.  Chido was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 939 mb.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Chido was maintaining its intensity as it approached northern Madagascar on Thursday evening.  A small circular eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) was at the center of Chido’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Chido.  Storms near the core of Chido generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was not quite able to  balance the stronger inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The greater inflow of mass in the lower levels caused the surface pressure to start to increase.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chodi was very symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Chido is 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 42.1.  Tropical Cyclone Chido is similar in intensity to Hurricane Charley when Charley made landfall in southwest Florida in 2004.  Chido is larger than Charley was.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment favorable for a powerful tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could weaken slowly during the next 24 hours if the inflow of mass in the lower levels continues to exceed the divergence of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  Chido will also weaken of the core of its circulation moves over northern Madagacar.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido will pass near the northern end of Madagascar in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Madagascar.  Chido is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hits Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters ) along parts of the coast of northern Madagascar.  Chido could cause major damage if the eyewall moves over the northern end of Madagascar.