The center of Tropical Cyclone Chido passed just to the north of Madagascar on Friday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 12.0°S and longitude 49.4°E which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) north of Antsiranana, Madascar. Chido was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.
Tropical Cyclone Chido was weakening slowly as it passed just to the north of Madagascar on Friday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of Chido’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Chido. Storms near the core of Chido generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass in the upper levels was not quite able to balance the stronger inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere. The greater inflow of mass in the lower levels caused the surface pressure to increase.
The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chodi was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido.
The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Chido is 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 15.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 37.1. Tropical Cyclone Chido is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta made landfall in southwest Louisiana in 2020.
Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment favorable for a powerful tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Chido could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours if the inflow of mass in the lower levels is balanced by the divergence of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere.
Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido will reach Mayotte and the Comoros in 24 hours. Chido could approach the coast of northern Mozambique in 48 hours.
Tropical Cyclone Chido could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Mayotte and the Comoros. Chido will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Mayotte and the Comoros. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Chido could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of Mayotte and the Comoros.