Monthly Archives: January 2020

Tropical Cyclone Diane Passes South of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Diane passed south of Rodrigues on Saturday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Diane was located at latitude 22.2°S and longitude 64.7°E which put it about 190 miles (305 km) south-southeast of Port Mathurin, Maritius.  Diane was moving toward the east-southeast at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Diane brought winds to tropical storm force when it passed south of Rodrigues.  Diane also caused winds to tropical storm force over Mauritius earlier on Saturday.  A weather station at Le Morne on Mauritius measured a wind speed of 49 m.p.h. (79 km/h).  Several other weather stations on Mauritius including one at the international airport also reported winds to tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Diane will move through an environment only marginally favorable for intensification.  Diane will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  An upper level trough east of Madagascar will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Diane could strengthen a little more during the next 12 hours, but the wind shear will cause weakening in a day or two.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Diane toward the east-southeast during the next 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Diane will move quickly away from Rodrigues

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Esami was churning about 1000 miles (1600 km) east of Tropical Cyclone Diane.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Esami was located at latitude 25.9°S and longitude 74.8°E which put it about 1160 miles (1875 km) east-southeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Esami was moving toward the southeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Diane Forms North of La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Diane formed north of La Reunion on Friday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Diane was located at latitude 19.3°S and longitude 56.2°E which put it about 110 miles (175 km) north-northeast of St. Denis, La Reunion.  Diane was moving toward the east-southeast at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation developed in an area of low pressure east of Madagascar on Friday and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Diane.  The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Diane was asymmetrical.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring northwest of the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing east of the center of Diane.  Storms near the center of circulation were beginning to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Diane will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Diane will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  An upper level trough west of Madagascar and an upper level ridge east of Mauritius will interact to produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Diane could intensify slowly during the next 24 to 36 hours.

The upper level trough and upper level ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Diane toward the east-southeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Diane could bring wind and rain to Mauritius within 12 hours.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Tino Speeds Across Tonga

Tropical Cyclone Tino sped quickly across Tonga on Saturday.  The core of Tino passed northeast of Nuku Alofa and the most populated island of Tonga.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tino was located at latitude 24.0°S and longitude 170.6°E which put it about 370 miles (595 km) east-southeast of Nuku Alofa, Tonga.  Tino was moving toward the southeast at 26 m.p.h. (42 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

The strongest part of Tropical Cyclone Tino passed northeast of the more populated Tongatapu Group of islands in Tonga.  The core of Tino passed closer to the Vava’u Group and Ha’apai Group of islands in Tonga.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 350 miles (565 km) from the center of Tino.  Tropical Cyclone Tino brought gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of Tonga.

Tropical Cyclone Tino began to weaken after it passed across Tonga.  Tino moved over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was cooler than 26°C.  Tropical Cyclone Tino moved southwest of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge caused moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear contributed to the weakening of Tino.  Colder Sea Surface Temperatures and moderate vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Tino to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next two days.

Tropical Cyclone Tino Brings Wind, Rain to Eastern Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Tino brought wind and rain to eastern Fiji on Friday.  The core of Tino moved east of Vanua Levu but the large circulation around the tropical cyclone brought wind and rain across eastern Fiji.  There were reports of flash floods in some parts of Fiji.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tino was located at latitude 18.6°S and longitude 176.7°W which put it about 190 miles (305 km) north-northwest of Nuku Alofa, Tonga.  Tino was moving toward the southeast at 27 m.p.h. (45 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Tino intensified into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it moved over eastern Fiji.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and a possible eye was seen on some infrared satellite images.  The strongest winds were occurring in a ring of thunderstorms around the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the tropical cyclone.  There was a large circulation around Tropical Cyclone Tino.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 400 miles (645 km) from the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Tino was 11.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 22.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.1.  Tropical Cyclone Tino was capable of causing widespread mostly minor damage and smaller areas of more significant damage.

Tropical Cyclone Tino will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Tino will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move around the southwestern portion of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough during the next 12 hours to prevent intensification.   The wind speed will increase in about a day or so and more vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Tino to weaken when that occurs.

Tropical Cyclone Tino will around the southwestern end of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Tino toward the southeast.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Tino could affect Tonga within 12 hours.  Tino will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it moves over Tonga.  It will bring strong winds and rain.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Tropical Cyclone Tino Forms North of Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Tino formed north of Fiji on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tino was located at latitude 14.3°S and longitude 178.3°E which put it about 155 miles (250 km) west-northwest of Labasa, Fiji.  Tino was moving toward the southeast at 13 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

The circulation around a large area of low pressure north of Fiji consolidated around a distinct low level center of circulation on Thursday and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Tino.  The circulation around Tino was still organizing.  A primary band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the northern, eastern and southern sides of the circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming around Tropical Cyclone Tino.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 400 miles (645 km) north of the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center in the southern half of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Tino will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Tino will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move around the southwestern part of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will generate moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will slow the rate of intensification, but the shear will not be strong enough to keep Tropical Cyclone Tino from getting stronger.  Tino could intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Tino will move southwest of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Tino toward the southeast during the next few days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Tino could be near the eastern end of Vanua Levu in about 12 hours.  Tino could approach Tonga in about 36 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Tino will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Vanua Levu, Taveuni and many of the smaller islands in eastern Fiji.  Locally heavy rain  could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Claudia Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Claudia strengthened into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Claudia was located at latitude 16.0°S and longitude 117.9°E which put it about 290 miles (465 km) north of Port Hedland, Australia.  Claudia was moving toward the west-southwest at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Claudia strengthened over the warm water northwest of Australia on Sunday.  A small circular eye formed at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Claudia.  The stronger rainbands were in the western half of the circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the core of the circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Claudia will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Claudia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move around the northwestern part of an upper level ridge centered over Australia.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds will produce moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will slow the rate of intensification, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Claudia from getting strong during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Claudia will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high will steer Claudia toward the west-southwest.  On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone Claudia will remain well off the coast of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Claudia Develops Northwest of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Claudia developed northwest of Australia on Saturday.  At 1:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Claudia was located at latitude 13.2°S and longitude 125.4°E which put it about 155 miles (250 km) north-northeast of Kuri Bay, Australia.  Claudia was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Kalumburu to Beagle Bay.  The Warning zone includes Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque.

A Tropical Low moved westward across northern Australia late last week.  The circulation around the low pressure system began to organize when the system moved over Timor Sea west of Darwin on Saturday.  The wind speed increased and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Claudia.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern and eastern sides of the center of circulation.  Thunderstorms formed quickly in other bands north and west of the center.  There were fewer thunderstorms in rainbands south and east of the center, but much of that part of the circulation was still over western Australia.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass to the west of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Claudia will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Claudia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move around the northwestern part of an upper level ridge centered over Australia.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the tropical cyclone.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will slow the rate of intensification but it will not be strong enough to keep Tropical Cyclone Claudia from strengthening.  Claudia could intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 to 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Claudia will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high will steer Claudia toward the west-southwest.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Claudia will move parallel to the coast of Western Australia.  The core of Claudia with the strongest winds is forecast to remain offshore.

Tropical Cyclone Blake Makes Another Landfall in Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Blake made another landfall on the coast of Western Australia on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Blake was located at latitude 20.1°S and longitude 120.5°E which put it about 20 miles (35 km) south-southwest of Wallal Downs, Australia.  Blake was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 55 m.p.h. (90 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Blake moved across the coast of Western Australia just to the west of Wallal Downs on Tuesday.  Blake was beginning to weaken, but winds to tropical storm force were still occurring in the northwestern part of the circulation that was still over water.  A weather station at Bedout Island which is just off the coast of Western Australia was reporting a sustained wind speed of 43 m.p.h. (69 km/h) and wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (82 km/h).  A weather station in Mandora, Australia had already received 2.69 inches (64.4 mm) of rain from the rainbands in eastern side of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Blake will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Australia.  Blake will move more toward the south when it reaches the western end of the high.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Blake could be near Marble Bar in about 12 hours.  Blake could approach Newman in about 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Blake will weaken as it moves farther inland.  Blake could drop locally heavy rain over parts of Western Australia and the potential for flash floods exists.

Elsewhere, a Tropical Low was slowly organizing over the Arafura Sea north of Australia.  At 1:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 11.2°S and longitude 137.7°E which put it about 70 miles (115 km) north-northeast of Nhulunbuy, Australia.  The Tropical Low was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.  The Tropical Low is forecast to move westward and to strengthen.  A Watch has been issued for the portions of the coast from Cape Don to Point Stuart and from Goulburn Island to Cape Shield.

Tropical Cyclone Blake Brings Wind and Rain to Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Blake brought wind and rain to portions of Western Australia on Monday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Blake was located at latitude 18.7°S and longitude 121.5°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) southwest of Broome, Australia.  Blake was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Blake made landfall on the coast of Western Australia north of Broome earlier on Monday.  The center moved back out over water slightly north of Broome and then the center passed just to the west of that city.  A weather station in Broome measured sustained winds of 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and a wind gust to 50 m.p.h. (82 km/h).  5.83 inches (148 mm) of rain fell over Broome.  A rainband in the northeastern periphery of the circulation dropped rain over the area around the Kimberly Plateau during much of Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Blake weakened while the center was over land, but it appears to be strengthening again now that the center is back over water.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation during the past few hours.  Those storms started to generated upper level divergence again.  Bands farther away from the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation mainly in portions of circulation over water.

Tropical Cyclone Blake will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Blake will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Blake could strengthen during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Blake will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high will steer Blake toward the south-southwest during the next 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Blake could make another landfall on the coast of Western Australia near Wallal Downs.  A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bidyadanga to De Grey.  Blake will bring gusty winds and rain to that portion of the coast.

Elsewhere, a new Tropical Low developed over the Arafura Sea north of Australia.  At 8:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 10.7°S and longitude 137.7°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) north-northeast of Nhulunbuy, Australia.  The Tropical Low was moving toward the east at 6 m.p.h. (9 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.  The Tropical Low is forecast to move back toward the west and to strengthen.  A Watch has been issued for the portion of the Australian coast from Cape Shield to Cape Don including Goulburn Island.  On its anticipated track the center of the Tropical Low could pass near Cape Wessel in about 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Blake Strengthens Near Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Blake strengthened near Western Australia on Sunday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Blake was located at latitude 16.1°S and longitude 121.9°E which put it about 140 miles (220 km) north of Broome, Australia.  Blake was moving toward the east-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Kuri Bay to De Grey including Broome.  A Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from De Grey to Whims Creek including Port Hedland.

The circulation around a Tropical Low over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia became more organized on Sunday night and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Blake.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in a primary rainband on the eastern side of Blake.  Bands in other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Blake will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Blake will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Blake will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Blake shifted eastward on Sunday as the circulation reorganized closer to the inner end of the primary rainband.  Blake will move around the western end of a high pressure system centered near northern Australia.  The high will steer Blake toward the south-southwest.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Blake will pass just west of Broome in about 24 hours.  Blake could make landfall on the coast of Western Australia near Wallal Downs in about 36 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Blake will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of Western Australia.