Tag Archives: Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Maila Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Maila intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday.  At 5:00pa.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila was located at latitude 9.5°S and longitude 155.9°E which put the center about 565 miles (910 km) east of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.  Maila was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (285 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 930 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Maila intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane as it continued to meander over the Solomon Sea on Tuesday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 28 miles (45 km) was present at the center of Maila’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.  Storms near the center of Maila generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Maila was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Maila’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Maila is 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 46.4.  Tropical Cyclone Maila is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ida when Ida hit Louisiana in 2021.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to be in an environment that will be slightly unfavorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Maila will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures were originally near 30°C.  It will be under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Solomon Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Since Tropical Cyclone Maila has been moving slowly over the Solomon Sea, the strong winds near the surface of the ocean are mixing cooler water to the surface.  Maila will move back over cooler water that has already mixed to the surface of the ocean.  The cooler water is likely to prevent further intensification of Tropical Cyclone Maila.  Maila is likely to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is developing over the Coral Sea.  The high pressure system will steer Maila toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Maila will move toward the southeastern part of Papua New Guinea.

Tropical Cyclone Maila could approach Woodlark Island in less than 48 hours.  Maila will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the Kiriwina Islands, the D’Entrecasteaux Islands, and the Louisiade Archipelago.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Maila will be capable of causing major damage.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vaianu started to weaken as it moved away from Fiji.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vaianu was located at latitude 21.6°S and longitude 177.3°E which put the center about 255 miles (410 km) south of Nadi, Fiji.  Vaianu was moving toward the southeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Maila Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Maila strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane as it moved slowly over the Solomon Sea on Monday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila was located at latitude 9.9°S and longitude 156.5°E which put the center about 605 miles (970 km) east of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.  Maila was moving toward the east at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 953 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Maila intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Monday night.  A circular eye was present at the center of Maila’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila. Storms near the center of Maila generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Maila was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Maila’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Maila is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 37.1.  Tropical Cyclone Maila is similar in intensity to Hurricane Rita when Rita hit Southwest Louisiana in 2005.  Maila is smaller than Rita was.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to be in an environment that will be mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Maila will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will be under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Solomon Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Since Tropical Cyclone Maila has been moving slowly over the Solomon Sea, the strong winds near the surface of the ocean are mixing cooler water to the surface.  If enough cooler water mixes to the surface of the ocean, then the cooler water could stop the intensification of Maila.  Tropical Cyclone Maila could intensify slowly during the next 24 hours, unless too much cooler water mixes to the surface of the ocean.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to be in a region where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Maila is forecast to meander over the Solomon Sea because the steering winds are weak.  A high pressure system is forecast to develop over the Coral Sea later this week.  The high pressure system will steer Maila toward the west after it develops.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vaianu passed southwest of Fiji.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vaianu was located at latitude 19.7°S and longitude 175.6°E which put the center about 175 miles (285 km) southwest of Nadi, Fiji.  Vaianu was moving toward the south-southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Maila Meanders over the Solomon Sea

Tropical Cyclone Maila continued to strengthen on Monday as it meandered over the Solomon Sea.   At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila was located at latitude 9.7°S and longitude 155.6°E which put the center about 555 miles (895 km) east of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.  Maila was moving toward the east at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Maila continued to strengthen on Monday as it meandered over the Solomon Sea.  A small circular eye was at the center of Maila’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.  Storms near the center of Maila generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Maila was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Maila’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (250 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Maila is 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 17.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 36.2.  Tropical Cyclone Maila is similar in intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit South Alabama in 2020.  Maila is bigger than Sally was.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to be in an environment that will be mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Maila will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will be under the northern part of an upper level ridge that is over the Solomons.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Maila’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Since Tropical Cyclone Maila has been moving slowly over the Solomon Sea, the strong winds near the surface of the ocean are mixing cooler water to the surface.  If enough cooler water mixes to the surface of the ocean, then the cooler water could stop the intensification of Maila. Tropical Cyclone Maila could intensify slowly during the next 24 hours, unless too much cooler water mixes to the surface of the ocean.  If Maila intensifies it will strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to be in a region where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Maila is forecast to meander over the Solomon Sea because the steering winds are weak.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vaianu continued to intensify west of Fiji.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vaianu was located at latitude 16.8°S and longitude 174.1°E which put the center about 230 miles (375 km) west of Nadi, Fiji.  Vaianu was moving toward the southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Maila Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Maila strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it meandered over the Solomon Sea on Sunday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila was located at latitude 9.3°S and longitude 154.7°E which put the center about 500 miles (805 km) east of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.  Maila was moving toward the east-southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Maila strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Sunday.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Maila’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.  Storms near the center of Maila generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Maila increased as Maila intensified on Sunday.  Wind to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Maila’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (285 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to be in an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Maila will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will be under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge that is over the Solomons.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Maila’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Maila will intensify during the next 24 hours. Maila is could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to be in a region where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Maila is forecast to meander over the Solomon Sea because the steering winds are weak.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vaianu was intensifying northwest of Fiji.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vaianu was located at latitude 15.1°S and longitude 172.6°E which put the center about 405 miles (655 km) west-northwest of Nadi, Fiji.  Vaianu was moving toward the south-southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil Passes South of Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Urmil passed south of Fiji on Saturday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Urmil was located at latitude 26.7°S and longitude 179.5°W which put the center about 525 miles (850 km) south of Siva, Fiji.  Urmil was moving toward the southeast at 28 m.p.h. (45 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil was making a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Sunday morning.  An upper level trough that was northwest of New Zealand was producing strong northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Urmil’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong upper level winds were also blowing the top half of Urmil’s circulation to the southeast of the circulation in the lower levels of the atmosphere.

Bands near the center and in the northern and western parts of Tropical Cyclone Urmil consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Some thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Urmil’s circulation.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Urmil increased as Urmil made the transition to an extratropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center of Urmil’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Urmil will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  The upper level trough that was northwest of New Zealand will continue to produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Urmil’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  The strong wind shear will also Tropical Cyclone Urmil to complete a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough northwest of New Zealand will steer Tropical Cyclone Urmil toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Urmil will pass far to the south of Tonga.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil Moves Southeast of Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Urmil moved southeast of Vanuatu on Saturday morning.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Urmil was located at latitude 21.2°S and longitude 172.5°E which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) southeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Urmil was moving toward the east-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it moved over the South Pacific Ocean southeast of Vanuatu on Saturday morning.  Even though Urmil strengthened, the distribution of thunderstorms became more asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern and eastern sides of Tropical Cyclone Urmil.  Bands in the northern and western sides of Urmil’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

An upper level trough that was south of New Caledonia was producing northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Urmil.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Urmil.

The strongest winds were occurring north of the center of Tropical Cyclone Urmil.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northern side of Urmil’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Urmil.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Urmil will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.   The upper level trough that was south of New Caledonia will continue to produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Urmil’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause moderate to strong vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Urmil could intensify a little, if the upper level winds do not get any stronger.  Urmil is more likely to start to weaken during the weekend because of the vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will also cause Tropical Cyclone Urmil to begin a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough south of New Caledonia will steer Tropical Cyclone Urmil toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Urmil will pass south of Fiji.

 

Tropical Cyclone Urmil Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Urmil was bringing wind and rain to parts of southern Vanuatu on Friday morning.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Urmil was located at latitude 19.5°S and longitude 168.1°E which put the center about 120 miles (195 km) south of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Urmil was moving toward the southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean near Vanuatu strengthened on Thursday night and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Urmil.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil was intensifying rapidly on Friday morning.  Thunderstorms were forming near the center of Urmil’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also developing in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Urmil.  Storms near the center of Urmil generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and east of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Urmil was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Urmil’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Urmil will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge that is west of Vanuatu.  The upper level ridge will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Urmil’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Urmil will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Urmil will strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon today.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is south of Fiji.  The high pressure system will steer Urmil toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Urmil will move away from southern Vanuatu later today.  Urmil will pass south of Fiji during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Vanautu during the next few horus.  Strong winds and heavy rain will affect Erromango, Tanna, Aniwa, Futuna, and Aneityum.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Seru Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Seru strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Pacific Ocean between Vanuatu and Fiji on Tuesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seru was located at latitude 18.2°S and longitude 171.3°E which put the center about 190 miles (310 km) east of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Seru was moving toward the south-southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seru rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Pacific Ocean between Vanuatu and Fiji on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of the center of Seru’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Seru.  Storms near the center of Seru generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The inner core of Tropical Cyclone Seru was exhibiting more organization.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Seru’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Seru.

Tropical Cyclone Seru will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Seru will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that extends from Vanuatu to Fiji.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Seru will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Seru will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Seru toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Seru will remain between Vanuatu and Fiji.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Rae was weakening rapidly as it passed southwest of Tonga.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae was located at latitude 24.1°S and longitude 178.0°W which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) southwest of Nuku Alofa, Tonga.  Rae was moving toward the south-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Rae Moves Away From Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Rae moved away from Fiji on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae was located at latitude 22.1°S and longitude 178.2°W which put the center about 235 miles (385 km) west-southwest of Nuku Alofa, Tonga.  Rae was moving toward the south-southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Rae moved south of Fiji on Monday.  There were reports of wind damage and floods from some of the islands in eastern Fiji.  Rae was passing west of Tonga on Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Rae intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it moved across eastern Fiji.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Rae’s circulation.  A circular eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae.  There was a ring of thunderstorms around the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Rae’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Rae generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Rae increased a little on Monday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Rae’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 145 miles (235 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rae will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is southeast of New Caledonia.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Rae’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  The combination of cooler water and more vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Rae to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough southeast of New Caledonia will steer Tropical Cyclone Rae toward the southeast during the next 24h hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Rae will pass well to the south of Tonga.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone 21P formed between Vanuatu and Fiji.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone 21P was located at latitude 16.6°S and longitude 170.7°W which put the center about 180 miles (290 km) east-northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Tropical Cyclone 21P was moving toward the southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

 

Tropical Cyclone Rae Brings Wind and Rain to Eastern Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Rae brought wind and rain to eastern Fiji on Sunday night.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae was located at latitude 18.2°S and longitude 179.4°W which put the center about 55 miles (90 km) east-northeast of Moala, Fiji.  Rae was moving toward the south-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Rae brought strong winds and heavy rain to parts of eastern Fiji on Sunday night.  Rae passed over the Lau Group of islands.  The center of Tropical Cyclone Rae passed near Naitaba, Vanna Balavu, Mago, and Cicia.

Tropical Cyclone Rae intensified as it passed over eastern Fiji.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Rae’s circulation.  An eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae.  A ring thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Rae became more circular on Sunday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Rae’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rae will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge near Fiji. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Rae is likely to intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rae toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Rae will move over the southern islands of in the Lau Group.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will bring continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Lau Group of islands.  The center of center of Rae’s circulation will pass near Moala, Totoya, and Mataku.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.