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Tropical Cyclone Urmil Passes South of Fiji

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Tropical Cyclone Urmil passed south of Fiji on Saturday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Urmil was located at latitude 26.7°S and longitude 179.5°W which put the center about 525 miles (850 km) south of Siva, Fiji.  Urmil was moving toward the southeast at 28 m.p.h. (45 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil was making a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Sunday morning.  An upper level trough that was northwest of New Zealand was producing strong northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Urmil’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong upper level winds were also blowing the top half of Urmil’s circulation to the southeast of the circulation in the lower levels of the atmosphere.

Bands near the center and in the northern and western parts of Tropical Cyclone Urmil consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Some thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Urmil’s circulation.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Urmil increased as Urmil made the transition to an extratropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center of Urmil’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Urmil will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  The upper level trough that was northwest of New Zealand will continue to produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Urmil’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  The strong wind shear will also Tropical Cyclone Urmil to complete a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough northwest of New Zealand will steer Tropical Cyclone Urmil toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Urmil will pass far to the south of Tonga.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil Moves Southeast of Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Urmil moved southeast of Vanuatu on Saturday morning.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Urmil was located at latitude 21.2°S and longitude 172.5°E which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) southeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Urmil was moving toward the east-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it moved over the South Pacific Ocean southeast of Vanuatu on Saturday morning.  Even though Urmil strengthened, the distribution of thunderstorms became more asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern and eastern sides of Tropical Cyclone Urmil.  Bands in the northern and western sides of Urmil’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

An upper level trough that was south of New Caledonia was producing northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Urmil.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Urmil.

The strongest winds were occurring north of the center of Tropical Cyclone Urmil.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northern side of Urmil’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Urmil.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Urmil will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.   The upper level trough that was south of New Caledonia will continue to produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Urmil’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause moderate to strong vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Urmil could intensify a little, if the upper level winds do not get any stronger.  Urmil is more likely to start to weaken during the weekend because of the vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will also cause Tropical Cyclone Urmil to begin a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough south of New Caledonia will steer Tropical Cyclone Urmil toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Urmil will pass south of Fiji.

 

Tropical Cyclone Urmil Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Urmil was bringing wind and rain to parts of southern Vanuatu on Friday morning.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Urmil was located at latitude 19.5°S and longitude 168.1°E which put the center about 120 miles (195 km) south of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Urmil was moving toward the southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean near Vanuatu strengthened on Thursday night and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Urmil.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil was intensifying rapidly on Friday morning.  Thunderstorms were forming near the center of Urmil’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also developing in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Urmil.  Storms near the center of Urmil generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and east of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Urmil was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Urmil’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Urmil will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge that is west of Vanuatu.  The upper level ridge will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Urmil’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Urmil will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Urmil will strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon today.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is south of Fiji.  The high pressure system will steer Urmil toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Urmil will move away from southern Vanuatu later today.  Urmil will pass south of Fiji during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Vanautu during the next few horus.  Strong winds and heavy rain will affect Erromango, Tanna, Aniwa, Futuna, and Aneityum.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Seru Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Seru strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Pacific Ocean between Vanuatu and Fiji on Tuesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seru was located at latitude 18.2°S and longitude 171.3°E which put the center about 190 miles (310 km) east of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Seru was moving toward the south-southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seru rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Pacific Ocean between Vanuatu and Fiji on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of the center of Seru’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Seru.  Storms near the center of Seru generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The inner core of Tropical Cyclone Seru was exhibiting more organization.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Seru’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Seru.

Tropical Cyclone Seru will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Seru will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that extends from Vanuatu to Fiji.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Seru will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Seru will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Seru toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Seru will remain between Vanuatu and Fiji.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Rae was weakening rapidly as it passed southwest of Tonga.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae was located at latitude 24.1°S and longitude 178.0°W which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) southwest of Nuku Alofa, Tonga.  Rae was moving toward the south-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Rae Moves Away From Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Rae moved away from Fiji on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae was located at latitude 22.1°S and longitude 178.2°W which put the center about 235 miles (385 km) west-southwest of Nuku Alofa, Tonga.  Rae was moving toward the south-southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Rae moved south of Fiji on Monday.  There were reports of wind damage and floods from some of the islands in eastern Fiji.  Rae was passing west of Tonga on Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Rae intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it moved across eastern Fiji.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Rae’s circulation.  A circular eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae.  There was a ring of thunderstorms around the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Rae’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Rae generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Rae increased a little on Monday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Rae’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 145 miles (235 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rae will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is southeast of New Caledonia.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Rae’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  The combination of cooler water and more vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Rae to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough southeast of New Caledonia will steer Tropical Cyclone Rae toward the southeast during the next 24h hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Rae will pass well to the south of Tonga.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone 21P formed between Vanuatu and Fiji.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone 21P was located at latitude 16.6°S and longitude 170.7°W which put the center about 180 miles (290 km) east-northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Tropical Cyclone 21P was moving toward the southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

 

Tropical Cyclone Rae Brings Wind and Rain to Eastern Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Rae brought wind and rain to eastern Fiji on Sunday night.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae was located at latitude 18.2°S and longitude 179.4°W which put the center about 55 miles (90 km) east-northeast of Moala, Fiji.  Rae was moving toward the south-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Rae brought strong winds and heavy rain to parts of eastern Fiji on Sunday night.  Rae passed over the Lau Group of islands.  The center of Tropical Cyclone Rae passed near Naitaba, Vanna Balavu, Mago, and Cicia.

Tropical Cyclone Rae intensified as it passed over eastern Fiji.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Rae’s circulation.  An eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae.  A ring thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Rae became more circular on Sunday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Rae’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rae will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge near Fiji. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Rae is likely to intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rae toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Rae will move over the southern islands of in the Lau Group.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will bring continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Lau Group of islands.  The center of center of Rae’s circulation will pass near Moala, Totoya, and Mataku.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Rae Forms Northeast of Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Rae formed northeast of Fiji on Sunday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 178.9°W which put the center about 200 miles (325 km) northeast of Suva, Fiji.  Rae was moving toward the south-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean strengthened on Sunday and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Rae.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Rae was organizing rapidly on Sunday.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae.  More thunderstorms also formed in the bands revolving around the center of Rae’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Rae generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Rae became more symmetrical on Sunday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center of Rae’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rae. will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge near Fiji. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Rae will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rae toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Rae will move over the islands of eastern Fiji.  The center of Rae’s circulation will pass east of Vanua Levu.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Lau Group of islands.  The center of center of Rae’s circulation could pass near Vanna Balavu.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Mal Moves South of Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Mal moved south of Fiji during Tuesday night. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mal was located at latitude 23.2°S and longitude 179.0°E which put it about 310 miles (500 km) south of Suva, Fiji. Mal was moving toward the south-southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Strong vertical wind shear and cooler Sea Surface Temperatures caused the structure of Tropical Cyclone Mal to start to change during Tuesday night. An eye was not longer present at the center of Mal’s circulation. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Tropical Cyclone Mal. Bands in the other parts of Mal’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Cyclone Mal was in the process of making a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Mal increased when it started to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Mal’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Mal.

Tropical Cyclone Mal will move into an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification of a tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours. Mal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the Coral Sea. The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Mal’s circulation. Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear. The combination of cooler water and strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Mal to weaken during the next 36 hours. Mal will continue to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough over the Coral Sea will steer Tropical Cyclone Mal toward the southeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Mal will continue to move farther away from Fiji.

Tropical Cyclone Mal Passes West of Fiji

The center of Tropical Cyclone Mal passed just to the west of Fiji on Tuesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mal was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 175.9°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) west of Nadi, Fiji. Mal was moving toward the south-southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Radar from the Fiji Meteorological Service showed the center of Tropical Cyclone Mal passing just to the west of Viti Levu on Tuesday morning. A weather station at the airport in Nadi (NFFN) reported a sustained wind speed of 41 m.p.h. (66 km/h) and a wind gust of 63 m.p.h. (102 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Mal was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it passed just to the west of Fiji on Tuesday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 50 miles (80 km) was at the center of Mal’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Mal. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Mal. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (250 km) from the center of Mal’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Mal will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Mal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the Coral Sea. The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Mal’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The combination of cooler water and moderate vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Mal to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough over the Coral Sea will steer Tropical Cyclone Mal toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Mal will move south of Fiji.

The eastern side of the eyewall of Tropical Cyclone Mal could pass close to the west coast of Viti Levu. A rainband on the eastern side of Mal’s circulation could bring strong winds and heavy rain to the western part of Viti Levu. Scattered electricity outages are possible. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Mal could cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along parts of the northern and western coasts of Viti Levu. Mal could also bring gusty winds and heavy rain to Kadavu and Ono.

Tropical Cyclone Mal Intensifies to Equivalent of a Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Mal intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Pacific Ocean northwest of Fiji on Monday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mal was located at latitude 15.3°S and longitude 175.1°E which put it about 225 miles (365 km) northwest of Nadi, Fiji. Mal was moving toward the south-southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Mal rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon northwest of Fiji on Monday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Mal’s circulation. Microwave satellite images suggested that an eye was forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Mal. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Mal’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Mal. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (250 km) from the center of Mal’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Mal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Mal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Mal’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Mal is likely to intensify during the next 18 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Mal will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Mal toward the southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Mal will pass just to the west of Viti Levu in 12 to 18 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Mal will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Fiji. The strongest winds and heaviest rain will affect Viti Levu. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Scattered outages of electricity are possible. Tropical Cyclone Mal could cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the north and west coasts of Viti Levu.