Tropical Cyclone Urmil passed south of Fiji on Saturday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Urmil was located at latitude 26.7°S and longitude 179.5°W which put the center about 525 miles (850 km) south of Siva, Fiji.  Urmil was moving toward the southeast at 28 m.p.h. (45 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil was making a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Sunday morning.  An upper level trough that was northwest of New Zealand was producing strong northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Urmil’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong upper level winds were also blowing the top half of Urmil’s circulation to the southeast of the circulation in the lower levels of the atmosphere.

Bands near the center and in the northern and western parts of Tropical Cyclone Urmil consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Some thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Urmil’s circulation.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Urmil increased as Urmil made the transition to an extratropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center of Urmil’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Urmil will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  The upper level trough that was northwest of New Zealand will continue to produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Urmil’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  The strong wind shear will also Tropical Cyclone Urmil to complete a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough northwest of New Zealand will steer Tropical Cyclone Urmil toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Urmil will pass far to the south of Tonga.