Tag Archives: Tonga

Tropical Cyclone Seru Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Seru strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Pacific Ocean between Vanuatu and Fiji on Tuesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seru was located at latitude 18.2°S and longitude 171.3°E which put the center about 190 miles (310 km) east of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Seru was moving toward the south-southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seru rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Pacific Ocean between Vanuatu and Fiji on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of the center of Seru’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Seru.  Storms near the center of Seru generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The inner core of Tropical Cyclone Seru was exhibiting more organization.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Seru’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Seru.

Tropical Cyclone Seru will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Seru will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that extends from Vanuatu to Fiji.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Seru will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Seru will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Seru toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Seru will remain between Vanuatu and Fiji.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Rae was weakening rapidly as it passed southwest of Tonga.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae was located at latitude 24.1°S and longitude 178.0°W which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) southwest of Nuku Alofa, Tonga.  Rae was moving toward the south-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Rae Moves Away From Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Rae moved away from Fiji on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae was located at latitude 22.1°S and longitude 178.2°W which put the center about 235 miles (385 km) west-southwest of Nuku Alofa, Tonga.  Rae was moving toward the south-southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Rae moved south of Fiji on Monday.  There were reports of wind damage and floods from some of the islands in eastern Fiji.  Rae was passing west of Tonga on Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Rae intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it moved across eastern Fiji.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Rae’s circulation.  A circular eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae.  There was a ring of thunderstorms around the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Rae’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Rae generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Rae increased a little on Monday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Rae’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 145 miles (235 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rae will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is southeast of New Caledonia.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Rae’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  The combination of cooler water and more vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Rae to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough southeast of New Caledonia will steer Tropical Cyclone Rae toward the southeast during the next 24h hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Rae will pass well to the south of Tonga.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone 21P formed between Vanuatu and Fiji.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone 21P was located at latitude 16.6°S and longitude 170.7°W which put the center about 180 miles (290 km) east-northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Tropical Cyclone 21P was moving toward the southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

 

Tropical Cyclone Kevin Passes South of Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Kevin passed south of Fiji on Saturday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kevin was located at latitude 25.1°S and longitude 178.6°E which put it about 450 miles (720 km) south of Suva, Fiji. Kevin was moving toward the east-southeast at 26 m.p.h. (43 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Kevin started to weaken as it passed south of Fiji on Saturday. An upper level trough east of Australia was producing northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Kevin’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was causing Kevin to weaken. A large circular eye with a diameter of 50 miles (80 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Kevin. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. The vertical wind shear also caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Kevin to become asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Kevin. Bands in the northern half of Kevin consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The size of Tropical Cyclone Kevin’s circulation increased on Saturday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (325 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Kevin was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 20.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 42.5.

Tropical Cyclone Kevin will move through an environment that is unfavorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Kevin will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. An upper level trough east of Australia will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Kevin’s circulation. Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear during the next 48 hours. The strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Levin to weaken. Kevin will move over colder water during the next few days. A combination of strong vertical wind shear and colder water will cause Tropical Cyclone Kevin to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough east of Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Kevin toward the east-southeast during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Kevin will pass South of Tonga on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Kevin Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Kevin brought wind and rain to southern Vanuatu on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kevin was located at latitude 19.0°S and longitude 169.2°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) south-southeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu. Kevin was moving toward the southeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Kevin brought strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Vanuatu on Friday morning. Kevin was affecting the same area that was hit by Tropical Cyclone Judy earlier this week. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Kevin’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (300 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Kevin was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 31.1. Tropical Cyclone Kevin was similar in size and intensity to Tropical Cyclone Judy.

Tropical Cyclone Kevin strengthened as it moved over southern Vanuatu on Friday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was at the center of Kevin’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Kevin. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Kevin will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Kevin will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. An upper level trough east of Australia will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Kevin’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification during the rest of today. Tropical Cyclone Kevin is likely to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours. Kevin could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane. The vertical wind shear will increase and Kevin will move over cooler water during the weekend. Tropical Cyclone Kevin will start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

The upper level trough east of Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Kevin toward the southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Kevin will move away from Port Vila and Efate during the next few hours. Kevin will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Port Vila and Efate until it moves farther away. Port Vila and Efate were just hit by Tropical Cyclone Judy. Tropical Cyclone Kevin will hinder efforts to recover from Tropical Cyclone Judy. Tropical Cyclone Kevin will also bring wind and rain to Erromango, Tanna and Aneityum during the next 24 hours. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Judy was making a transition to an extratropical cyclone southwest of Tonga. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Judy was located at latitude 26.5°S and longitude 178.7°W which put it about 460 miles (740 km) southwest of Tonga. Judy was moving toward the east-southeast at 30 m.p.h. (48 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa Passes West of Tonga

Tropical Cyclone Tonga passed west of Tonga on Friday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Yasa was located at latitude 20.6°S and longitude 178.0°W which put it about 280 miles (305 km) west of Nuku’Alofa, Tonga. Yasa was moving toward the south at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

After making a direct hit on Vanua Levu, Tropical Cyclone Yasa moved over the Fiji islands in the Lau Group. There were reports of damage and casualties from Fiji. Tropical Cyclone Yasa weakened after it made landfall on Vanua Levu. The eye and eyewall were disrupted by passage over land. An upper level low centered north of New Zealand produced northerly winds which blew toward the top of Yasa’s circulation on Friday. Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear and the shear caused the tropical cyclone to weaken steadily on Friday.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Yasa exhibited less organization on Friday. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in a band in the southern half of the circulation. Bands in the northern half of Yasa consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Yasa was still large. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa will move through an environment that is mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Yasa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C. However, the upper level low centered north of New Zealand will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The shear is likely to be strong enough to cause Tropical Cyclone Yasa to continue to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa will move around the eastern side of the upper level low. The low will steer Yasa toward the southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Yasa will pass west of Tonga and it will remain north of New Zealand.

Tropical Cyclone Zazu Brings Wind and Rain to Northern Tonga

Tropical Cyclone Zazu brought wind and rain to northern Tonga on Monday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Zazu was located at latitude 18.9°S and longitude 174.4°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) west of Neiafu, Tonga. Zazu was moving toward the south-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Zazu brought wind and rain to the Vava’u Group of islands in northern Tonga on Monday. The circulation around Zazu was intensifying. The inner end of a rainband wrapped partly around the eastern side of the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Zazu. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) on the eastern side of Zazu. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) in the western half of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Zazu will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Zazu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move south of an upper level trough over the South Pacific Ocean. The trough will produce westerly winds which will blow toward the top of Zazu. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and they are contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. The shear will inhibit intensification of Tropical Cyclone Zazu, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Zazu from intensifying. Tropical Cyclone Zazu could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours. The vertical wind shear will increase in a day or so, and Zazu will start to weaken when that happens.

The upper level trough will start to steer Tropical Cyclone Zazu toward the southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Zazu will move between Tonga and Niue. Tropical Cyclone Zazu will continue to cause gusty winds and heavy rain over parts of Tonga during the next 24 hours. Rainbands on the eastern side of Zazu could affect Niue on Tuesday.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Yasa strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon west-northwest of Fiji. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Yasa was located at latitude 15.5°S and longitude 171.6°E which put it about 400 miles (640 km) west-northwest of Nadi, Fiji. Yasa was moving toward the north-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb. Tropical Cyclone Yasa is forecast to move toward Fiji and to intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa Strengthens between Fiji and Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Yasa strengthened between Fiji and Vanuatu on Sunday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Yasa was located at latitude 15.7°S and longitude 172.1°E which put it about 380 miles (610 km) west-northwest of Nadi, Fiji. Yasa was moving toward the west-southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa strengthened on Sunday after the circulation of former Tropical Cyclone 04P was absorbed by the larger circulation around Yasa. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern side of the center of circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Yasa. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa will be in an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days. Yasa will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Yasa will likely intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 18 hours. It could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane in about three days.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours. Yasa is forecast to make a slow clockwise loop during the next 24 to 36 hours. Eventually, a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean will start to steer Tropical Cyclone Yasa toward the southeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Yasa could approach Fiji in about four days.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone 06P developed north of Tonga. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone 06P was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 173.9°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) north of Neiafu, Tonga. It was moving toward the south-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Harold Brings Wind and Rain to Tonga

Tropical Cyclone Harold brought wind and rain to Tonga on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Harold was located at latitude 23.8°S and longitude 172.1°W which put it about 250 miles (400 km) southeast of Nuku Alofa, Tonga.  Harold was moving toward the east-southeast at 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 945 mb.

After forming near the Solomon Islands and causing damage in Vanuatu and Fiji, Tropical Cyclone Harold brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to portions of Tonga on Wednesday.  The core of Harold with the strongest winds passed about 60 miles (95 km)  southwest of Tongatapu.  However, winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Harold.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation.  An airport at Fua’amotu, Tonga reported a sustained wind speed of 58 m.p.h. (93 km/h) when Harold passed southwest of its location.  The airport also reported a wind gust of 89 m.p.h. (143 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Harold moved quickly away from Tonga on Wednesday night.  Weather conditions were improving.  A high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean will continue to steer Harold rapidly toward the east-southeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Harold will pass well to the south of Niue.

Tropical Cyclone Harold will move into a less favorable environment.  Harold will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Harold will also move over cooler water.  Moderate vertical wind shear and cooler water will cause Tropical Cyclone Harold to weaken.  Harold could eventually make a transition to an extratropical cyclone when it moves out of the tropics.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Harold Brings Wind and Rain to Fiji

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Harold brought strong wind and heavy rain to parts of Fiji on Tuesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Harold was located at latitude 19.4°S and longitude 178.7°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) southeast of Tavuki, Fiji.  Harold was moving toward the east-southeast at 22 m.p.h (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 930 mb.

The eye of Tropical Cyclone Harold passed directly over Kadavu Island, Fiji on Tuesday night.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Harold was 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 48.0.  Tropical Cyclone Harold probably caused significant damage to Kadavu.  Harold also brought gusty winds and heavy rain to Viti Levu.  Flash floods were likely to have occurred in areas that received heavy rain.

Tropical Cyclone Harold strengthened on Tuesday after it moved away from Vanuatu where it caused significant damage.  The eye became evident on satellite imagery again and a solid ring of thunderstorms formed a strong eyewall.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Storms around the core of Harold generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Harold continued to increase in size.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Harold will move into an area less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Harold will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will increase in speed during the next 48 hours and the increased vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Harold to weaken.  Harold could weaken slowly during the next 12 to 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Harold will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Harold quickly toward the east-southeast.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Harold could reach Tonga within 12 to 18 hours.  Harold will be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Tonga.

Tropical Cyclone Harold Approaches Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Harold approached Fiji on Tuesday morning.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Harold was located at latitude 17.4°S and longitude 173.4°E which put it about 270 miles (435 km) west of Nadi, Fiji.  Harold was moving toward the east-southeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 943 mb.

Although the maximum sustained wind speed in Tropical Cyclone Harold decreased, the area of stronger winds increased.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Harold.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Harold was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 22.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 45.7.  Tropical Cyclone Harold was capable of causing major damage.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Harold increased in size on Tuesday.  The previous small eye was no longer visible on satellite imagery, but the most recent images suggested that a larger eye could be developing that the center of circulation.  The newly forming eye was surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Harold.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Harold will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Harold will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but they will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Harold could strengthen during the next 12 to 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Harold will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Harold toward the east-southeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Harold could reach Fiji within 12 hours.  Harold will be capable of causing major wind damage.  It will drop heavy rain and flash floods are likely.  Tropical Cyclone Harold could reach Tonga within 36 hours.