Tag Archives: SH19

Tropical Cyclone Seru Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Seru strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Pacific Ocean between Vanuatu and Fiji on Tuesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seru was located at latitude 18.2°S and longitude 171.3°E which put the center about 190 miles (310 km) east of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Seru was moving toward the south-southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seru rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Pacific Ocean between Vanuatu and Fiji on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of the center of Seru’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Seru.  Storms near the center of Seru generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The inner core of Tropical Cyclone Seru was exhibiting more organization.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Seru’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Seru.

Tropical Cyclone Seru will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Seru will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that extends from Vanuatu to Fiji.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Seru will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Seru will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Seru toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Seru will remain between Vanuatu and Fiji.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Rae was weakening rapidly as it passed southwest of Tonga.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae was located at latitude 24.1°S and longitude 178.0°W which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) southwest of Nuku Alofa, Tonga.  Rae was moving toward the south-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Rae Brings Wind and Rain to Eastern Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Rae brought wind and rain to eastern Fiji on Sunday night.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae was located at latitude 18.2°S and longitude 179.4°W which put the center about 55 miles (90 km) east-northeast of Moala, Fiji.  Rae was moving toward the south-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Rae brought strong winds and heavy rain to parts of eastern Fiji on Sunday night.  Rae passed over the Lau Group of islands.  The center of Tropical Cyclone Rae passed near Naitaba, Vanna Balavu, Mago, and Cicia.

Tropical Cyclone Rae intensified as it passed over eastern Fiji.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Rae’s circulation.  An eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae.  A ring thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Rae became more circular on Sunday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Rae’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rae will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge near Fiji. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Rae is likely to intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rae toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Rae will move over the southern islands of in the Lau Group.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will bring continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Lau Group of islands.  The center of center of Rae’s circulation will pass near Moala, Totoya, and Mataku.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Rae Forms Northeast of Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Rae formed northeast of Fiji on Sunday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 178.9°W which put the center about 200 miles (325 km) northeast of Suva, Fiji.  Rae was moving toward the south-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean strengthened on Sunday and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Rae.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Rae was organizing rapidly on Sunday.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae.  More thunderstorms also formed in the bands revolving around the center of Rae’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Rae generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Rae became more symmetrical on Sunday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center of Rae’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rae. will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge near Fiji. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Rae will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rae toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Rae will move over the islands of eastern Fiji.  The center of Rae’s circulation will pass east of Vanua Levu.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Lau Group of islands.  The center of center of Rae’s circulation could pass near Vanna Balavu.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Megan Makes Landfall in Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Megan made landfall in the Northern Territory of Australia on Monday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan was located at latitude 16.52S and longitude 136.6°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) south-southeast of Port McArthur, Australia. Megan was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port Roper to Mornington Island, Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Megan made landfall on the coast of the Northern Territory southeast of Port McArthur on Monday morning. A weather station in Borroloola, Australia reported a sustained wind speed of 37 m.p.h. (59 km/h) and a gust of 48 m.p.h. (78 km/h). The weather station in Borroloola also measured 12.12 inches (308.0 mm) of rain.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Megan also passed over the Pellew Islands before it made landfall in the Northern Territory. Centre Island reported a sustained wind speed of 82 m.p.h. (132 km/h) and a wind gust of 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h). The weather station on Centre Island also measured 14.99 inches (380.8 mm) of rain.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Megan toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan will pass southeast of Borroloola. The center of Megan will pass between the McArthur River Mine and Robinson River.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will weaken gradually as it moves farther inland over the Northern Territory. Megan will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southeastern part of the Northern Territory. Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations. A Flood Watch was in effect for some of the inland parts of the Northern Territory and the Carpentaria Coastal Rivers.

Elsewhere, a Tropical Low weakened over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 17.0°S and longitude 112.1°E which put it about 385 miles (625 km) north-northwest of Exmouth. Australia. The Tropical Low was moving toward the west at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Megan Brings Wind and Rain to Pellew Islands

Tropical Cyclone Megan brought wind and rain to the Pellew Islands on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan was located at latitude 15.5°S and longitude 137.1°E which put it about 85 miles (135 km) northeast of Borroloola, Australia. Megan was moving toward the south-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Alyangula to Mornington Island, Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Megan brought strong winds and heavy rain to the Pellew Islands on Sunday. An automated weather station on Centre Island reported a sustained wind speed of 54 m.p.h. (87 km/h) and a wind gust of 73 m.p.h. (117 km/h). The weather station measured 6.67 inches (169.4 mm) of rain and it was still raining at the time of the latest observation.

Tropical Cyclone Megan continued to intensify on Sunday. A small circular eye was present at the center of Megan’s circulation. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan. Storms near the center of Megan’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Megan was symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Megan. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Megan was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.4. Tropical Cyclone Megan was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit South Alabama in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Megan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Carpentaria. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Although more and more of the western side of Tropical Cyclone Megan will move over land, Megan could intensify during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Megan toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan will make landfall on the coast of the Northern Territory southeast of Port McArthur in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will continue to produce strong winds and heavy rain in the Pellew Islands. Megan will also bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the portion of the coast from Alyangula to Mornington Island. The part of the coast southeast of Port McArthur is likely to experience sustained winds to hurricane/typhoon force. Heavy rain will cause floods in some locations. A Flood Watch is in effect for parts of the Top End and Barkly in the Northern Territory. Tropical Cyclone Megan could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast.

Elsewhere, a Tropical Low continued to churn over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 17.5°S and longitude 112.7°E which put it about 350 miles (565 km) north of Exmouth. Australia. The Tropical Low was moving toward the south-southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Megan Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Megan intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Gulf of Carpentaria on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan was located at latitude 14.5°S and longitude 137.5°E which put it about 160 miles (260 km) north-northeast of Borroloola, Australia. Megan was moving toward the southwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Alyangula to Mornington Island, Australia. A Watch was in effect for Mornington Island.

Tropical Cyclone Megan intensified rapidly on Saturday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Megan’s circulation. A small circular eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center of Megan’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of Megan.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will move through and environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Megan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Carpentaria. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Megan will intensify during the next 24 hours. Megan could intensify rapidly at times. Tropical Cyclone Megan could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Megan toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Megan will approach the coast of the Northern Territory near Port McArthur in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the portion of the coast from Alyangula to Mornington Island. The part of the coast near Port McArthur is likely to experience winds to hurricane/typhoon force. Heavy rain was already falling on parts of Groote Eylandt. Heavy rain will cause floods in some locations, A Flood Watch is in effect for parts of the Top End and Barkly in the Northern Territory. Tropical Cyclone Megan could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters along the coast.

Elsewhere, a Tropical Low continued to spin over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 16.7°S and longitude 113.7°E which put it about 385 miles (625 km) north of Exmouth, Australia. The Tropical Low was moving toward the west at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Megan Develops Over Gulf of Carpentaria

Tropical Cyclone Megan developed over the Gulf of Carpentaria early on Saturday. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 137.6°E which put it about 160 miles (260 km) north-northeast of Borroloola, Australia. Megan was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Alyangula to Mornington Island, Australia. A Watch was in effect for Mornington Island.

A low pressure system over the Gulf of Carpentaria strengthened early on Saturday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Megan. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Megan was well organized. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Megan’s circulation. An eye appeared to be forming at the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan. Storms near the center of Megan generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will move through and environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Megan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Carpentaria. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Megan will intensify during the next 24 hours. Megan is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon. Tropical Cyclone Megan could intensify rapidly at times.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Megan toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Megan will approach the coast of the Northern Territory near Port McArthur in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the portion of the coast from Alyangula to Mornington Island. The part of the coast near Port McArthur is likely to experience winds to hurricane/typhoon force. Heavy rain was already falling on parts of Groote Eylandt. Heavy rain will cause floods in some locations, A Flood Watch is in effect for parts of the Top End and Barkly in the Northern Territory. Tropical Cyclone Megan could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters along the coast.

Elsewhere, a Tropical Low was spinning over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 17.3°S and longitude 114.0°E which put it about 345 miles (555 km) north of Exmouth, Australia. The Tropical Low was moving toward the west at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien Moves Southwest of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Fabien moved southwest of Diego Garcia on Friday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien was located at latitude 10.2°S and longitude 69.6°E which put it about 285 miles (460 km) southwest of Diego Garcia. Fabien was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien was maintaining its intensity on Friday morning as it moved southwest of Diego Garcia, but the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern quadrant of Fabien’s circulation. Bands in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Fabien consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Drier air had wrapped around the western and northern sides of Fabien’s circulation and the drier air was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Storms in the southeastern quadrant of Fabien still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Fabien. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the southern half of Fabien.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move through an environment that will become a little more favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fabien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weaker and the vertical wind shear will decrease. The drier air in the western and northern parts of Tropical Cyclone Fabien will continue to inhibit intensification. Even with the effects of the drier air, Tropical Cyclone Fabien could intensify during the next 24 hours when the wind shear decreases.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fabien slowly toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move farther away from Diego Garcia. Fabien is likely to move toward the south during the weekend when it moves around the western end of the high pressure system.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien Weakens South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Fabien weakened over the South Indian Ocean south of Diego Garcia during Wednesday night. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien was located at latitude 9.1°S and longitude 71.7°E which put it about 145 miles (235 km) south-southwest of Diego Garcia. Fabien was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien weakened to the equivalent of a tropical storm as it passed south of Diego Garcia during Wednesday night. The clockwise circulation around Fabien continued to pull drier air into the western side of the tropical cyclone. Bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Fabien consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were still occurring near the center of Fabien’s circulation and in bands in the eastern side of the tropical cyclone. The thunderstorms near the center of Fabien still were generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fabien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. However, southerly winds in the western side of Fabien’s circulation will continue to pull drier air into the tropical cyclone. In addition, Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fabien’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The drier air and vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Fabien to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fabien slowly toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move southwest of Diego Garcia during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien Moves Southeast of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Fabien moved southeast of Diego Garcia on Wednesday morning. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien was located at latitude 9.0°S and longitude 73.6°E which put it about 145 miles (235 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Fabien was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien began to show signs of weakening on Wednesday morning. The clockwise circulation around Fabien was pulling drier air into the western side of the tropical cyclone. Thunderstorms in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Fabien were weakening. Some bands consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The former circular eye was no longer visible on satellite images. There were still bands of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern half of Fabien’s circulation. Thunderstorms on the eastern side of Fabien still were generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fabien was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Fabien’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fabien was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.5. Tropical Cyclone Fabien was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fabien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, southerly winds in the western side of Fabien’s circulation will continue to pull drier air into the tropical cyclone. In addition, Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fabien’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The drier air and vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Fabien to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fabien toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien will pass south of Diego Garcia during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Fabien more toward the west later this week. Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move southwest of Diego Garcia on Thursday.