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Tropical Cyclone Fytia Moves South of La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Fytia moved south of La Reunion on Tuesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia was located at latitude 23.7°S and longitude 55.0°E which put the center about 215 miles (350 km) south of St. Denis, La Reunion.  Fytia was moving toward the east at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia weakened on Tuesday as it continued to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.  An upper level trough that was southeast of Madagascar produced strong northwesterly winds that blew across the top of Fytia’s circulation.  Those strong winds blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Fytia.  There were still some thunderstorms in bands in the southeastern part of Fytia’s circulation.  Bands in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Fytia consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Fytia was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Fytia’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Fytia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  However, the upper level trough southeast of Madagascar will continue to produce strong northwesterly winds that will across the top of Fytia’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Fytia to continue to weaken gradually as it makes a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough southeast of Madagascar will steer Tropical Cyclone Fytia toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move south of Mauritius on Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia Passes Southwest of La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Fytia was passing southwest of La Reunion on Monday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia was located at latitude 22.3°S and longitude 53.4°E which put the center about 180 miles (290 km) southwest of St. Denis, La Reunion.  Fytia was moving toward the south-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia exhibited signs of the beginning of a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Monday morning.  The distribution of thunderstorms in Fytia was becoming asymmetrical.  Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Fytia’s circulation.  Many of the bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Fytia consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Fytia still were generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of winds speeds in Tropical Cyclone Fytia was also more asymmetrical on Monday morning.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) in the southern half of Fytia’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Fytia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is over La Reunion and Mauritius.  The upper level ridge will produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fytia’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  The strong vertical wind shear will also cause Tropical Cyclone Fytia to make a gradual transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next several days.  Fytia is likely to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system that is over the Southwest Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fytia toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fytia will pass south of La Reunion and Mauritius during the middle part of this week.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia Moves East of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Fytia moved to the east of Madagascar on Sunday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia was located at latitude 20.7°S and longitude 50.7°E which put the center about 145 miles (235 km) southeast of Toamasina, Madagascar.  Fytia was moving toward the southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia started to intensify again after it moved over the Southwest Indian Ocean east of Madagascar on Sunday.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Fytia’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also formed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.  Storms near the center of Fytia generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and east of the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fytia was still small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Fytia’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fytia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is over La Reunion and Mauritius.  The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fytia’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Fytia will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system that is over the Southwest Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fytia toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fytia continue to move away from Madagascar.  Fytia will pass south of La Reunion and Mauritius later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia Brings Wind and Rain to Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Fytia was bringing wind and rain to Madagascar on Saturday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia was located at latitude 17.5°S and longitude 47.0°E which put the center about 140 miles (225 km) north-northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar.  Fytia was moving toward the southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia made landfall on the west coast of Madagascar west of Soalala on Friday night.  Fytia was the equivalent of a major hurricane at the time of landfall.  It then started to weaken as it moved southeast across central Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia was the equivalent of a tropical storm on Saturday morning.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Fytia’s circulation.

An upper level trough over the Mozambique Channel will steer Tropical Cyclone Fytia toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  The center of Fytia’s circulation will pass between Antananarivo and Toamasina.  Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move over the Southwest Indian Ocean on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to central Madagascar.   Heavy rain is very likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Widespread electricity outages are also likely.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Fytia rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane before it hit the west coast of Madagascar on Friday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 45.2°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) west of Soalala, Madagascar.  Fytia was moving toward the east-southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia continued to intensify rapidly on Friday right up to the time it hit the west coast of Madagascar.  A small circular eye was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Fytia’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Fytia generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fytia was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Fytia’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fytia was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HWISI) was 9.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.0 Tropical Cyclone Fytia was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fytia toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fytia will across central Madagascar on Saturday.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia made landfall on the west coast of Madagascar west of Soalala.  The center of Fytia’s circulation is likely to pass between Antananarivo and Toamasina on Saturday night.  Tropical Cyclone Fytia will weaken as it moves across Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of west central Madagascar and to central Madagascar.  Fytia could cause major damage in those areas.   Heavy rain is very likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Fytia could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the west coast of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Fytia rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Mozambique Channel early on Friday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia was located at latitude 15.5°S and longitude 43.0°E which put the center about 240 miles (385 km) west of Mahajanga, Madagascar.  Fytia was moving toward the east at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon early on Friday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Fytia’s circulation.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Fytia’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Fytia generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fytia was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Fytia’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fytia was 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HWISI) was 9.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 23.2  Tropical Cyclone Fytia was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Hanna when Hanna hit South Texas in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Fytia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Fytia will intensify during the next 12 hours.  Fytia could rapidly intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fytia toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fytia will reach the west coast of Madagascar between Soalala and Besalampy on Friday night.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of west central Madagascar and to central Madagascar.  Fytia could cause major damage in those areas.  Heavy rain is very likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Fytia could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the west coast of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia Forms Over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Fytia formed over the Mozambique Channel on Thursday.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia was located at latitude 15.6°S and longitude 42.4°E which put the center about 270 miles (435 km) west of Mahajanga, Madagascar.  Fytia was moving toward the east-southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A low pressure system over the Mozambique Channel strengthened on Thursday and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Fytia.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fytia organized quickly on Thursday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Fytia’s circulation.  A small eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Fytia’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Fytia generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fytia was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Fytia’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fytia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Fytia will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Fytia could rapidly intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fytia slowly toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fytia will approach the west coast of Madagascar between Soalala and Besalampy on Friday evening.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of west central Madagascar.  Heavy rain is very likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Fytia could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along parts of the west coast of Madagascar.

 

Tropical Cyclone Seru Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Seru strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Pacific Ocean between Vanuatu and Fiji on Tuesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seru was located at latitude 18.2°S and longitude 171.3°E which put the center about 190 miles (310 km) east of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Seru was moving toward the south-southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seru rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Pacific Ocean between Vanuatu and Fiji on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of the center of Seru’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Seru.  Storms near the center of Seru generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The inner core of Tropical Cyclone Seru was exhibiting more organization.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Seru’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Seru.

Tropical Cyclone Seru will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Seru will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that extends from Vanuatu to Fiji.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Seru will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Seru will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Seru toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Seru will remain between Vanuatu and Fiji.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Rae was weakening rapidly as it passed southwest of Tonga.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae was located at latitude 24.1°S and longitude 178.0°W which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) southwest of Nuku Alofa, Tonga.  Rae was moving toward the south-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Rae Brings Wind and Rain to Eastern Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Rae brought wind and rain to eastern Fiji on Sunday night.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae was located at latitude 18.2°S and longitude 179.4°W which put the center about 55 miles (90 km) east-northeast of Moala, Fiji.  Rae was moving toward the south-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Rae brought strong winds and heavy rain to parts of eastern Fiji on Sunday night.  Rae passed over the Lau Group of islands.  The center of Tropical Cyclone Rae passed near Naitaba, Vanna Balavu, Mago, and Cicia.

Tropical Cyclone Rae intensified as it passed over eastern Fiji.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Rae’s circulation.  An eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae.  A ring thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Rae became more circular on Sunday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Rae’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rae will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge near Fiji. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Rae is likely to intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rae toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Rae will move over the southern islands of in the Lau Group.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will bring continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Lau Group of islands.  The center of center of Rae’s circulation will pass near Moala, Totoya, and Mataku.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Rae Forms Northeast of Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Rae formed northeast of Fiji on Sunday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 178.9°W which put the center about 200 miles (325 km) northeast of Suva, Fiji.  Rae was moving toward the south-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean strengthened on Sunday and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Rae.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Rae was organizing rapidly on Sunday.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae.  More thunderstorms also formed in the bands revolving around the center of Rae’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Rae generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Rae became more symmetrical on Sunday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center of Rae’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rae. will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge near Fiji. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Rae will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rae toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Rae will move over the islands of eastern Fiji.  The center of Rae’s circulation will pass east of Vanua Levu.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Lau Group of islands.  The center of center of Rae’s circulation could pass near Vanna Balavu.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.