Tropical Cyclone Fytia rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Mozambique Channel early on Friday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia was located at latitude 15.5°S and longitude 43.0°E which put the center about 240 miles (385 km) west of Mahajanga, Madagascar. Fytia was moving toward the east at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.
Tropical Cyclone Fytia rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon early on Friday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Fytia’s circulation. A small circular eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Fytia’s circulation. Storms near the core of Fytia generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.
The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fytia was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Fytia’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.
The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fytia was 13.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HWISI) was 9.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 23.2 Tropical Cyclone Fytia was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Hanna when Hanna hit South Texas in 2020.
Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Fytia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Mozambique Channel. The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Fytia will intensify during the next 12 hours. Fytia could rapidly intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane.
Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fytia toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fytia will reach the west coast of Madagascar between Soalala and Besalampy on Friday night.
Tropical Cyclone Fytia will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of west central Madagascar and to central Madagascar. Fytia could cause major damage in those areas. Heavy rain is very likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Fytia could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the west coast of Madagascar.